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Friday, September 29, 2006

Gold Rally Meets Sellers!

Gold rally meets sellers! After yesterday's rally in the yellow metal that brought prices to the highest levels since September 11th earlier this month, the Gold bulls found themselves in retreat after the opening bell today. The bulls failed to close the gap made back on September 8th at 613.50, when the 612.50 high was posted yesterday before sellers took over. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar held strong today, though prices action was rather restrained. The Dollar index was up 26 ticks, with the Canadian Dollar (down 70) and Pound (down 40) the biggest losers. Next week, the data is thin until the non-farm payroll release on Friday, which is expected at 105,000.

Tough Week For The GBP/USD.

With the exception of the British Pound, FX pairs are keeping to their familiar ranges. In terms of today's data, personal income was up 0.3% in August, in line with forecasts, while the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE deflator was marginally higher at 2.5% on a yearly basis. Read More....

Lower Winter Heating Bills

Lower winter heating bills in the works? Not even a lower than expected storage build of 77 bcf last week could keep Natural Gas prices from falling, with the most-active November contract tumbling to a new contract low. Traders were looking for a build of 85 bcf in yesterday's EIA storage report, but the market still reacted negatively, as any storage build will continue to add to record inventory going into the winter. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: November Crude Oil fell back below $63 a barrel on Thursday, as mixed signals of production cuts from OPEC reduced fears. Crude Oil was trading up near $64 a barrel in early trading, as Nigeria hinted they were going to cut exports by 5% starting October 1. Crude Oil futures then retreated, as OPEC officials refuted that claim, saying they had no knowledge of any cuts from any member. November Crude Oil futures fell 20 cents, to settle at $62.76 a barrel.

Natural Gas: Natural Gas futures fell hard on Thursday, dropping the contract to prices not seen in nearly two years. The 4.9% decline was a result of data from the Energy Department showing stored supplies were still high for this time of year. Natural Gas inventories rose 77 billion cubic feet for the week ending September 22. November Natural Gas futures fell 27.7 cents, to settle at $5.392 per million British thermal units.

Gold: Gold futures continued the recent bull market on Thursday, climbing back above $610 a troy ounce. Yesterday’s closing price was the highest in three weeks. However, Gold still remains far below its peak of $719.80 in May. Strong overseas demand continues to be the underlying factor behind the bounce back. December Gold futures closed the day with gains of $6.20, to settle at $603.30 a troy ounce.

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Feast or Famine?

Feast or Famine? Soft Red Wheat futures soared to 4-month highs today, as already low global supplies seem destined to go even lower. The Australian Wheat Board has once again lowered its production estimate for the 2006-07 Wheat crop to between 12 and 15 million metric tons, down sharply from an earlier estimate closer to 20 million metric tons. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

With the exception of the Pound, FX pairs kept to their familiar ranges. Sterling saw a significant correction is response to a incorrectly reported inflation reading that had previously motivated Sterling bulls. In terms of tomorrow's data, we'll have the final Michigan sentiment survey (exp. 84.4) and the PCE-deflator (Fed's favorite inflation measure). The Chicago purchasing manager index is also due and expected at 54.5.

High Rising EUR/JPY?

In early U.S. trade, the Dollar remains resilient, despite a fairly sharp downward revision to Q2 GDP, from 2.9% to 2.6% annually. The volatile weekly jobless claims fell to 316,000 last week and the chain-weighted price index was 3.3%, unchanged. Read More....

$60 Floor For Crude Oil?

$60 floor for Crude Oil? Yesterday's EIA stocks report noted that US Crude Oil stocks only fell 100,000 barrels last week. This was a shocking figure when traders and analysts were expecting a drop of nearly 2 million barrels. Oil bears were licking their chops at the prospect of sharply lower prices. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: November Crude Oil rose to nearly $63 a barrel on Wednesday, as traders reacted to fears that OPEC may cut production. The expectations of the OPEC output cut outweighed news of rising U.S. inventories. U.S. gasoline inventories rose by 6.3 million barrels last week, far exceeding expert estimates. This data led to an early low of $60.10 a barrel, before OPEC fears took control of the trading action. Despite today’s gains, Crude Oil remains well below its July high of $78.40. November Crude Oil futures gained 3% or $1.95, to settle at $62.96 a barrel.

Natural Gas: Natural Gas futures fell to their lowest level in nearly four years on Wednesday. The recent declines are attributed to record supply levels, with little demand. As supplies remain high from last year’s mild winter, the mild hurricane season has eased any possible fears of an interruption to future supply. October Natural Gas futures fell 32.5 cents, to settle at $4.201 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Gold: Gold futures rallied on Wednesday, rising back above the psychologically important $600 mark for the first time in two weeks. Today’s gains mark the sixth consecutive day Gold futures closed higher, rebounding from its recent bear market. Firming Crude Oil prices, coupled with strong overseas demand continue to provide strength to the contract. Crude Oil’s gains were enough to override strength in the U.S. Dollar, as Gold continues to attach itself to movement in the energy sector. Also contributing to the buying effort is the recent conclusion of European central bank sales on Tuesday. December Gold futures closed the day with gains of $6.20, to settle at $603.30 a troy ounce.

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Crude Oil Futures Soar Despite Bearish Inventory Report!

The British Pound had a tough day today, slipping 76 ticks, while the Dollar Index ended the day exactly flat. The trouble in the spot market occurred in European trade when there was a surprise downward revision to the Q2 GDP figures. Also weighing on matters was some dovish commentary from MPC member Blanchflower, who was the sole dissenting vote in the last Bank of England rate hike. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar was flat today, holding steady while the Dow toyed with a record high. In terms of data, the durable goods report was soft, though not dramatically so. The ex-transportation number at -2.0 was a bit surprising, however, these figures are notoriously volatile. More encouraging was the new home sales data, which slipped less than expected (1.05m annualized). This resilience in the housing market, which implies of "soft landing" for the economy, combined with an active stock market, were enough to keep the Dollar above water today. Tomorrow will bring us the final Q2 GDP figure, which is expected to be 3%.

British Pound Soft Following The Revision Of The Q2 GDP

This morning currency markets are largely unchanged, with the exception of the British Pound, which is softish following a downward revision to Q2 GDP. In terms of early U.S. data, durable goods orders were down 0.5% in August, which given the volatile nature of this figure, is not particularly alarming. Read More....

Dow Reaches New Highs, As US Economy Slides

Dow near new highs, as US economy slides? All the signs are pointing to a slowdown in the US economy, with the housing market continuing to weaken, as Monday's report from the National Association of Realtors showed the median home price in August fell to $225,000, down 1.7 percent from a year earlier and the first year-to-year price decrease in over 11 years. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: November Crude Oil traded in choppy fashion on Tuesday. Traders battled between a strong supply-demand balance and the possibility of an OPEC production cut. Early gains above $62 a barrel were eventually wiped out, as the contract settled lower on the day. November Crude Oil futures fell 44 cents, to settle at $61.01 a barrel.

Wheat: Wheat futures used a technical correction from previous declines to post strong gains on Tuesday. Speculative buyers emerged on Tuesday, supported by several supply and demand forecasts. CBOT December Wheat futures gained 9 ¼ cents, to settle at $4.23 a bushel.

Gold: December Gold futures continued its rally on Tuesday. The end of European central bank sales coupled with strong overseas demand provided the support. Tuesday’s gains mark the highest closing price for the contract in two weeks. December Gold futures gained $1.20, to settle at $597.10 a troy ounce.

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar held firm today, with the December index rising 36 ticks. The impetus was two-fold. The first was a better then expected consumer confidence figure, which rose to 104.5 from a revised 99.6. The resurgent confidence figures, helped by falling crude prices and continued jobs growth, helped support the view that a "soft" land was more likely than the more painful alternative. The other supportive factor was a strong stock market, which boasted the 2nd highest close in the Dow at 11669.

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar held firm today, with the December index rising 36 ticks. The impetus was two-fold. The first was a better then expected consumer confidence figure, which rose to 104.5 from a revised 99.6. The resurgent confidence figures, helped by falling crude prices and continued jobs growth, helped support the view that a "soft" land was more likely than the more painful alternative. The other supportive factor was a strong stock market, which boasted the 2nd highest close in the Dow at 11669.

Will The Rally Corntinue?

Will the rally "corntinue"? Corn futures posted 7-week highs this afternoon, as commodity fund buying helped propel the December contract above the 100-day moving average. Moderate speculative buying coupled with a lack of producer hedge selling allowed prices to move higher than most traders were expecting. Read More....

Firm Greenback This Morning

The greenback has a firmer tone this morning, relative to the past few days. In early trade, the Dollar Index is up 35 ticks, with most gains coming at the expense of the Euro and Pound. Part of the story today is the German IFO index, which came in roughly as expected at 104.9, from last month's 105. Read More....

OPEC Talks Make Oil Bears Walk!

OPEC talks make Oil bears walk! Walk might be an understatement, as Oil bears ran for the exits yesterday. OPEC president Edmund Daukoru said yesterday that all the oil ministers were mulling the implications of the recent sharp decline in Oil prices the past several weeks. This statement led many traders to believe that OPEC would implement production cuts if Oil prices fell much further. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: November Crude Oil fought off early selling pressure, to rebound above $61 a barrel on Monday. The reversal was attributed to buying from a major European bank, along with support at the $60 a barrel mark. This came after Crude Oil traded at a ten-month low of $59.65 a barrel in early trading. November Crude Oil gained 90 cents, to settle at $61.45 a barrel.

Natural Gas: Natural Gas futures provided a continuation of last week’s declines on Monday. The same underlying fundamentals of increasing inventories and decreasing hurricane fears continue to rock the market. Monday’s intraday low of $4.42 is the lowest front-month price seen since October 2003. October Natural Gas futures ended the day down 15.2 cents, to settle at $4.475 per million British thermal units.

Gold: December Gold futures continued to find strength in the wake of last week’s 2% rally. Gold futures rebounded from early losses, finding support from a reversal in Crude Oil, which saw prices hit intraday highs over $62 a barrel. December Gold futures ended the day slightly higher, rising 50 cents, to settle at $595.90 a troy ounce.

Monday, September 25, 2006

FX Closing Comments

FX markets were, for the most part, tame today. A little soft inflation data in Europe and marginally firmer housing data, kept the Dollar flat and the Euro down. In the aftermath of today's housing release (down .5% for August), the market chatter is now about a "soft landing." The 2nd part, new home sales for August, will be unveiled on Wednesday and tomorrow we have consumer confidence, which is expected to slide only modestly to 104. The Dollar Index has been treading water, though not sinking, for the past two days.

Are We Headed For A Recession?

FX markets seem to be having a hard time following through lately, although this week could provide additional proof that hesitant traders require. The overall concern remains: If indeed we are headed for a slowdown or recession, will it be a "soft" or "hard" landing? Read More....

Fed Ready To Lower Rates?

Fed ready to lower interest rates? That is the word on the trading floors, as the weakening of the US housing market has sparked fears that the American economy might be slowing down more than the Fed would like, spurring fears of a recession going into 2007. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: November Crude Oil drops again on Friday, unable to pull away from the $60 a barrel mark after Thursday’s gains. Concerns of slowing economic growth in the U.S., coupled with what has turned out to be a tame hurricane season, continue to be the underlying factors behind Crude Oil’s weakness. November Crude Oil futures fell $1.04, to settle at $60.55 a barrel.

Natural Gas: Natural Gas futures finished off a bearish week with additional declines. With increasing inventories and no cold weather on the immediate horizon, sellers took control of the trading action. Friday’s sell-off placed Natural Gas futures at their lowest closing price for a front-month contract since February 2004. October Natural Gas fell 15 cents, to settle at $4.627 per million British thermal units.

Gold: December Gold futures rose again on Friday, ending the week with gains exceeding $12 an ounce. The 2% weekly gains were supported by strong physical demand from overseas and recent weakness in the U.S. dollar. December Gold futures gained $7.10, to settle at $595.40 a troy ounce.

Friday, September 22, 2006

FX Closing Comments

FX markets were especially tame today, with the Dollar Index up only 4 ticks. The Dollar has been under pressure throughout the week and today it managed to hold steady. It is likely that traders were happy to wait on the sidelines until next week's home sales data hits the market. A continued slide in the housing sector increases the likelihood that the hoped for "soft landing" may become a bit harder than expected. Such a scenario is not helpful to the Dollar. Monday's new home sales are expected at 1.06m annually through August.

Sugar, The Bittersweet Crop

Sugar, the bittersweet crop: Sugar futures closed down today by 110 points. In recent years, Sugar production has become a much more complex commodity. Brazil, the world's ethanol production leader, has contributed to the skyrocketing supply and demand for sugar. With their success, many other countries have looked to Brazil as a role model for becoming less dependent on fossil fuels. Over the last 30 years, Brazil has become the only country outside of the Middle East to even come close to achieving the goal of being energy Independent. Read More....

There Is No U.S. Data Today...

There is no U.S. data today, though the Dollar remains under pressure on fears of a general slowdown. The prevailing logic, which is also the view espoused by the Fed, is that an industrial slowdown is in the works, helped significantly by a sharp pullback in the housing sector. For the Dollar, this implies that the current 5.25% is the peak, and that rate support is likely to fall-off in the medium term. The Dollar story, however, may not be entirely doom and gloom, because with currencies, the equation is always how strong one currency is relative to another. Read More....

Update on Trading CBOT Grains Electronically...

In case you missed the news, the Chicago Board of Trade's grain complex -- previously one of the remaining bastions of open-outcry trading -- took a big, electronic step forward on August 1. Corn, wheat, soybean, soybean oil, soybean meal, rough rice, and oat futures contracts are now trading on e-CBOT, the exchange’s electronic trading platform, even during regular business hours. The trading pits haven't disappeared, as electronic trading is conducted alongside trading in the pits during the day. But as the weeks go by, it appears that more and more volume is shifting from the pits to the computer screens. Read More....

Copper May Be Ready For A Move, As Bulls And Bears Struggle For Control.

Copper may be ready for a move, as bulls and bears struggle for control. Reports that supplies will fail to meet demand have speculators prepared to act. Mine disruptions have caused inventories to decline by over 3% this month. Demand is expected to exceed supply by over 50,000 tons for this year, with current stockpiles at about 3 days of global use. Read More....

The British Pound Was The Big Winner In The Currencies Today

The British Pound was the big winner in the currencies today, rising 130 ticks. The overall theme with the Pound is perception that the Bank of England's MPC will be increasing rates before the end of the year. Higher than expected inflation readings, plus today, a better-than-expected report on September's manufacturing orders, have given a wink and nod to Sterling bulls. Today's manufacturing report at -5 represents a 21-month high and a sizable improvement from August's -8. forecast. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: November Crude Oil rebounded on Thursday, as bargain hunters returned from the recent sell-off. Support at the psychologically important $60 a barrel mark gave additional confidence to the buying effort. November Crude Oil rose 85 cents, to settle at $61.59 a barrel.

Natural Gas: Natural Gas futures fell to two-year lows Thursday on U.S. supply data. The sell-off came after the Energy Department released their report showing domestic Natural Gas inventories increased last week by 93 billion cubic feet, to 3.18 trillion cubic feet. October Natural Gas futures fell 15 cents, to settle at $4.78 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Gold: December Gold futures rose again on Thursday, bringing a two-day total rise of more than $5 a troy ounce. The gains were attributed to rising Crude Oil prices, coupled with a declining Dollar. Also contributing to the gains were Wednesday’s comments from the Federal Reserve stating that inflation remains their main concern. December Gold futures rose $2.10, to settle at $588.30 a troy ounce.

Thursday, September 21, 2006

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar was under pressure today, falling against all the other majors. The day's data was unhelpful, with the Conference Board's leading indicators soft at -.2 for September, and the Philly Fed survey down a surprising -.4, after last month's +18.5. Although Philadelphia is only one region, the feeling that a broadly-based manufacturing slowdown is in the works. Looking forward, next week will bring another round of housing reports in the U.S., and most analysts expect to see a continuation of the downward pattern. The Dollar Index was down 61 ticks on the day.

How Low Can We Go?

How low can we go? Crude Oil continues downward, as supply reports continue to be above estimates. Most of the news for the past month has been bearish. While demand is up from last year, inventories continue to climb. The market may have finally found some support at the $60 mark, as a close below this number may spark action from OPEC. The market appears to be oversold with a single digit RSI, as large funds continue to unwind losing long positions and speculators add to their short positions. Read More....

Currency Markets Were Largely Unchanged Yesterday

Currency markets were largely unchanged yesterday, in the aftermath of the Fed meeting. The one exception was the British Pound. UK inflation is what drove Sterling yesterday, when it was announced that inflation had reached a 9-year high of 2.5%. Presently, many anticipate one additional hike from the BoE this year, and most expect the Fed to hold steady for the remainder of 2006. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: October Crude Oil extended losses on Wednesday, as prices dropped below $61 a barrel. Supply data from the Energy Department were behind yet another day of declines. Crude supplies fell 2.8 million barrels to 324.9 million for the week ending September 15. This drop is still well above the five-year average. The October Crude Oil contract fell $1.20, to settle at $60.46 a barrel.

Wheat: December Wheat futures fell slightly on Wednesday, taking back some of Tuesday’s gains. A lack of fresh news and profit-taking were attributed to yesterday’s decline. CBOT December Wheat fell 1 ¼ cents, to settle at $4.07 ¾ a bushel.

Gold: December Gold futures rose on Wednesday, as traders positioned themselves for the Fed Decision. The Federal Reserve later kept interest rates unchanged for the second straight time. December Gold gained $3 to settle at $586.20 a troy ounce.

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Bonds Move Little, As Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged:

Bonds move little, as Fed leaves rates unchanged: This may have been one of the most uninteresting FOMC meetings in quite some time, as interest rate traders had already correctly factored-in the continued "pause" in the Fed's tightening campaign. In its statement released after the rate announcement, the Fed mentioned the continued moderation in economic growth, due to the slowdown in the US housing market. However, the committee members continue to see some inflation risks remaining, and have left opening the possibility of future rate increases if upcoming data regarding inflation and economic growth warrant it. Treasury futures posted very moderate gains this afternoon, with traders seeing little in today's announcement to alter near-term expectations. December Treasury Bonds closed at 111-07, up 0-04. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

Currency markets were largely unchanged today, in the aftermath of the Fed meeting. The one exception was the British Pound, which is trading on interest rate expectations, with many anticipating one additional hike from the BoE, while most expect the Fed to remain dovish for the remainder of the year. In the UK tomorrow, the CBI orders report is due, while in the U.S. we have the Conference Board's leading indicators report, as well as the Philly Fed survey. The Dollar Index was down 17 ticks today.

A Few New Themes Running Through FX Markets Today

There are a few new themes running through FX markets today in the aftermath of the apparently successful coup in Thailand and the political turmoil in Hungary. The concern now is that these political developments will put emerging market currencies on the defensive, driving-up traditional safe-haven currencies, typically the Dollar and Swiss Franc. More pessimistically for Dollar bears is the interest rate outlook, where at today's FOMC meeting, most expect to see the bank pause once again, and signal that inflation is largely under control. This eventual loss of rate support would seemingly favor the Euro, however, there is quite a lot being written about how a coming U.S. slowdown will crimp European growth, just as it was getting started. Read More....

No Soft Landing For Cotton:

No soft landing for Cotton: Cotton futures can't seem to hold a rally these days, with yesterday's steep sell-off negating Monday's up-move and setting the stage for a test of contract lows. December Cotton closed at 2-month lows, with brisk selling from commodity funds and local floor traders overwhelming moderate trade buying. Speculative sell-stops were said to have been triggered below 5300 and 5250 in the December contract. Commercial accounts are holding a net-long position in Cotton, which has given some hope that cash business may start to pick up. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: October Crude Oil reversed early week gains. Edmund Daukoru, President of OPEC, said a delay in a major Gulf of Mexico production project reduced the need for an output reduction in the near-term. Those comments, coupled with easing fears over Iran’s nuclear program, weighed heavily on the Crude Oil market yesterday. Yesterday’s closing price was the lowest front-month settlement price for Crude Oil since March. October Crude Oil fell $2.14, to settle at $61.66 a barrel.

Wheat: December Wheat futures rose sharply on news that officials cut Australia’s crop estimate by 35% due to dry conditions. Production in Australia is forecast at 16.4 million metric tons. December CBOT Wheat gained 13 ½ cents, to settle at $4.09 a bushel.

Gold: December Gold futures fell yesterday, all but erasing Monday’s gains. Trader concerns over weak jewelry demand in the first half of the year, coupled with another drop in Crude Oil, were the factors behind Tuesday’s selling. December Gold fell $9.60, to settle at $583.20 a troy ounce.

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

FX Closing Comments

There was a fair amount of price action in the FX markets today, with the Dollar Index up 13 ticks. Although the U.S. data was solidly "dovish" the Dollar headed north on a poor German ZEW index report. The monthly review of analyst sentiment fell substantially in September, putting pressure on the Euro, an occurrence that is usually helpful to the Dollar, the other major reserve currency. Also making headlines was the Thai Bhat, which suffered the effects of the coup in that country. The Canadian Dollar was also soft after the release of tame consumer price figures. Tomorrow has a FOMC meeting and most belive that the Fed will not move on rates. Expect close analysis of the follow-up commentary.

Wheat Fails To Retreat!

Wheat fails to retreat! December Wheat futures climbed above $4 a bushel this afternoon, as commodity fund buying and the potential for improved export business supported prices. Early support came from a report that the Australian 2006-07 Wheat crop will be down nearly 35% from USDA estimates due to severe drought conditions. This news comes on top of poor Wheat crops in Argentina and parts of Europe. Read More....

The Dollar Is A Little Softer This Morning

The Dollar is a little softer this morning after the release of August's producer price figures, which were notably tame. The monthly headline figure was up .1%, while the core PPI was down .4%. Housing starts and building permits were also less then expected at 1.66m and 1.72m, respectively. In general terms, today's data, once again, largely confirms the Fed's view that inflation is contained, owning largely to a general, housing-led slowdown. Read More....

What Inflation?

What inflation? Today's PPI release was a surprise to most traders, with a benign rise of only 0.1% last month. More shocking was the so called "core" reading, which posted a surprising drop of 0.4% in August. This report, coupled with an inflation neutral CPI report on Friday, has nearly wiped out any chance of an interest rate increase at tomorrow's FOMC meeting, according to Fed Funds traders. Traders also were greeted by US housing starts in August, which fell 6% to 1.67 million. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: October Crude Oil had modest gains on Monday, finding some support after last week’s sell-off. Behind the buying effort was a combination of technical buying and news that BP will delay oil production from a massive Gulf of Mexico project. October Crude Oil futures rose 47 cents, to close at $63.80 a barrel.

Corn: December Corn futures rose on Monday due to cold and wet weather forecasts for the Midwest later this week. The first talk of frost fears for the season also entered the picture on Monday. Monday’s buying effort placed the December Corn contract back near the upper-end of its six-week trading range. December Corn futures rose 6 cents, to settle at $2.47 ¾ a bushel.

Gold: December Gold futures posted solid gains on Monday, retracing some of the recent sell-off. Yesterday’s gains were widely considered a corrective pause, as speculative buyers looked for bargains after the recent declines. Many traders remain wary of further declines, especially as the contract remains below the psychologically important $600 mark. December Gold futures rose $9.80, to settle at $592.80 a troy ounce.

Monday, September 18, 2006

Lumber Continues To Tumble:

Lumber continues to tumble: Most-active November Lumber futures continue to slide, posting fresh contract lows this afternoon. Weak cash prices and commodity fund selling were the key factors in today's sell-off. The Lumber market started its slide back in January, when fears of a slowing housing market, due to rising interest rates, cast a bearish tone to the Lumber market. The data on home builders has become increasing bearish, with The National Association of Home Builders reporting the lowest reading for its housing index since February 1991 this morning. Read More....

O.J. Futures Await USDA Report:

O.J. futures await USDA report: The bull market in Orange Juice futures has taken a pause, as traders and analysts try to come up with an estimate for the 2006-07 Florida orange crop ahead of the USDA's estimate on October 12th. So far, private forecasters have reported a wide range of estimates, from as low as 128 million boxes to as high as 180 million boxes. The wide range of estimates is due to unknowns such as next season's weather or potential disease and its effects on the crop. Last week, the USDA lowered the final estimate on the 2005-06 crop to 148 million boxes, due to late harvest results. Read more....

G + 7 = A Non-Event For Most Currencies...

G + 7 = a non-event for most currencies on foreign exchange. Hawkish ECB commentary by policy-makers had little effect on the Euro on Sunday's open, but economic data sparked a tiny rally into the European session. Industrial Euro-zone production declined by .4% in July, against a predicted value of .2%, catching most analysts by surprise. This report brings to light consecutive declines in production of non-durable goods and continued gains in energy production. The Euro dipped a bit as the news was absorbed, but it's not expected to hamper trading intra-day. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: October Crude Oil recovered from early losses on Friday, ending the day slightly higher. Short-covering before the weekend was attributed to the recovery. Crude Oil still managed to lose more than 4% for the week. The October Crude Oil futures rose 11 cents, to settle at $63.33 a barrel.

Wheat: December Wheat futures closed lower again on Friday, ending a week-long decline. Friday’s drop was attributed to weaker-than-expected export demand. Commodity-wide fund selling has also factored in to the recent weakness. December Wheat fell 7 cents, to settle at $3.90 ¼ a bushel.

Gold: December Gold futures closed lower again on Friday, marking the seventh time in the past eight days the contract has fallen. Gold continues to fall in conjunction with plummeting energy prices and a rising U.S. Dollar. The December contract fell 5.6% on the week. December Gold futures fell $3.00, to settle at $583 a troy ounce.

Friday, September 15, 2006

Platinum Plummets!

Platinum Plummets! A sharp bout of selling in Japan overnight, kept Platinum futures on the defensive today. The most-active October Platinum contract fell as low $1141.20 this morning, a drop of nearly $90 for the week. Heavy speculative selling started at the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) last night, with trade selling moving into the New York session. Late in the session, a short-covering rally in Gold and Silver spilled over to the Platinum ring, with local short-covering cutting the day's losses significantly by the close. Read More....

Zoning In On The Euro!

Zoning in on the Euro! Eurostat reported consumer prices rose by .1% in August, and year-on-year inflation for 2006 posted a high of 2.5% in May and June. This led to the pre-emptive rate hikes recently by the ECB, but declining inflation reports in the latter parts of the year will be putting the brakes on further hikes. Since December, ECB policy makers bumped up interest rates four times, and there is talk of one more possible increase when the council meets on October 5th. Read More....

Wheat Futures Continue To Struggle On Weak Demand:

Wheat futures continue to struggle on weak demand: 2006 has been a roller coaster year for Wheat traders, as drought conditions in the spring initially sent prices sharply higher. Now, weaker than expected export demand has put Wheat bears back in control. December Wheat has closed lower the past five days, with commodity fund selling dominating the market. Export sales remain well below USDA estimates for the season, as high prices have made US Wheat uncompetitive in the world market. Big Wheat buyers like China and India have been absent from the US Wheat market this year, keeping export projections lower. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: October Crude Oil fell again on Thursday, marking the seventh time in the past eight days the contract has settled lower. Early gains were erased after a major sell-off in Natural Gas futures brought Crude Oil prices down with it. October Crude Oil futures fell 75 cents, to close at $63.22 a barrel.

Natural Gas: Natural Gas futures fell 10% on Thursday, bringing the contract to its lowest level in two years. The sharp decline came after the U.S. government released data showing record supplies. This is the first time the front-month Natural Gas contract has settled below $5 since September, 2004. October Natural Gas Futures fell 55.7 cents, to settle at $4.892 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Gold: December Gold futures closed lower again on Thursday, marking the sixth time in the last seven days the contract has fallen. Gold continues to fall in conjunction with plummeting energy prices. December Gold futures fell $10.30, to settle at $586 a troy ounce.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Dollar Gets Pounded!

Dollar gets Pounded! British Pound futures posted sharp gains today, as stronger than expected retail sales figures continue to signal strong growth in the UK. Retail sales increased by 0.3% in August, up from a revised unchanged figure in July. This news has increased traders expectations for another interest rate increase by the Bank of England in November. Read More....

Pork Prices Peaking?

Pork prices peaking? Traders have been going "Hog Wild" for Lean Hog futures the past several months, as the entire livestock complex has been in an impressive bull market. Since August, October Lean Hogs have gained nearly $7 per hundredweight, as solid export demand and steep discounts to cash prices have kept Hog futures well supported. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: October Crude Oil futures rose on Wednesday, snapping a seven-day losing streak. The main factor behind the rise was the Energy Information Administration’s report that U.S. crude supplies fell 2.9 million barrels to 327.7 million last week. The October Crude Oil contract rose 21 cents, to settle at $63.97 a barrel.

Sugar: October Sugar futures rallied to 2 ½-week highs on Wednesday. Behind the rally was buying from both trade houses and speculators. Gains were also attributed to merger talks between the NYBOT and the IntercontinentalExchange. October Sugar rose 0.82 cents, to settle at 12.37 cents a pound.

Gold: December Gold futures closed higher on Wednesday, marking an end to a five-day losing streak. Gold had seen prices fall a total of $52.60, or 8%, over that five-day period. December Gold rose $2, to settle at $596.30 a troy ounce.

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Sugar Breaks Out Of Its Slump

Sugar breaks out of its slump: After several months of posting lower prices, Sugar futures rocketed higher this morning, supported by trade buying and speculative short-covering. Prices started the day higher, following a strong London opening, with trade buyers eager to book supplies below 12 cents. Local buying then emerged, triggering speculative buy- stops above 12.02 in the October contract. Commodity funds then joined the charge, pushing prices sharply higher into the close. Today's strong close may have confirmed a potential rounded bottom chart pattern, which may signal further buying by momentum traders. Read More....

The Dollar Has Stalled In Asian Session Trading

The Dollar has stalled in Asian session trading, and is expected to consolidate ahead of this weekend's G7 and IMF meetings to a range of 1.2675/1.2775. A break below resistance at 1.2640 will provide momentum for further downside action against the Euro. The next big tests for the U.S. economy are Retail Sales numbers on Thursday and CPI on Friday. Traders know Fed policy is heavily dependant on economic data for signs of inflation, and the Dollar continues to see support despite huge trade deficits with China. Any interest rate increase rumored by the FOMC will also spur heavy buying by the central bank. Read More....

This Time It's Not Different!

This time it's not different! Several months ago, there were predictions from some big names in the financial world that Crude Oil was destined to hit $100 a barrel. Well, I guess we will have to hit $60 first, as Crude prices have fallen nearly $15 the past 5 weeks. Easing tensions in the Middle East, including with Iran over its nuclear program, have taken some of the "risk premium" out of energy prices. High energy prices have also filtered down to the demand side, with both the Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency cutting their forecasts for world Oil demand. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: October Crude Oil futures fell for the seventh straight day, as prices dropped below $64 a barrel. This is the lowest settle-price in Crude Oil since March. Tuesday’s decline was a continuation of the same factors: easing Mid-East tensions, along with a tame hurricane season thus far. The October Crude Oil contract fell $1.85, to settle at $63.76 a barrel.

Corn: Corn futures fell yesterday, as the Agriculture Department said this year’s fall harvest is likely to be the second largest U.S. Corn crop ever. The nearby September Corn contract declined 5.25 cents, to settle at $2.2350 per bushel. The December contract, representing harvest, fell 5.75 cents, to settle at $2.3775 per bushel.

Gold: December Gold futures fell for the fifth straight day, unable to hold on to early gains. The main factors continue to be declines in Crude Oil, aided by short-term speculative selling. December Gold futures closed down $3.00 at $594.30 a troy ounce.

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

CBOT Sets New Electronic Gold Futures Record


The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) announced on September 12 that its full-sized (100 oz.) Gold futures contract achieved a new volume record of 69,432 contracts at close of trading, surpassing the previous record of 63,471 contracts set on July 17, 2006. In addition, August marked the first month that the CBOT averaged greater than 50 percent share of the North American listed Gold futures market. For the month, CBOT Gold futures had 53 percent market share of listed Gold futures traded in North America. Clearly, CBOT is capturing share from the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, which is stubbornly clinging to open-outcry trading.

For those of you want the transparency, speed, and accuracy of electronic Gold futures trading -- and you're tired of waiting for the COMEX membership to wake up to the 21st century and offer electronic trading -- we recommend that you consider switching your trading volume to the CBOT's all-electronic Gold futures contract.

CBOT electronic Gold trades continuously from 6:16 PM until 4:00 PM CT, Sunday through Friday. The contract calls for 100 ounces of refined gold, assaying not less than .995 fineness, cast either in one bar or in three one-kilogram bars. The price is quoted in dollars and cents per troy ounce, and the minimum tick is $.10 per troy ounce, worth $10 per contract. The lead month at the present time is December, 2006, and the symbol on the XPRESSTRADE system is ZGZ06.

If The Dollar Has Any Luck At All

If the Dollar has any luck at all, it's certainly not good! Reeling from an attack on the U.S. embassy in Damascus, Syria, the trade deficit number posting a record $68 billion in July, and a "new price era" expected for crude oil from OPEC, the Dollar is struggling against impossible odds. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, the July deficit rose 5% since June, and analysts see no hope of balancing the books. For fiscal year 2006, the trade deficit is on pace for an annual rate of $776 billion and in the red for the 5th straight year. Read More....

Metal Meltdown

Metal meltdown: The metals markets continue to bear the brunt of commodity fund liquidation, with the Gold market among the hardest hit. The most active December Gold futures plunged below the psychologically important $600.00 this morning, with Gold bulls running for the exits and speculative sell-stops being triggered. Since posting contract highs at $750.00 on May 12th, December Gold has fallen over $150.00, leading some analysts to believe that the bull move in Gold is over. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: October Crude Oil futures fell for the sixth straight day, as prices dropped below $66 a barrel. This is the lowest settle-price in Crude Oil since March. Monday’s decline was attributed to easing Mid-East tensions, as Iran said it would consider halting its uranium enrichment program. Also contributing to the decline was OPEC’s announcement that they will maintain their 28 million barrel-a-day production target. The October Crude Oil contract fell 64 cents, to settle at $65.61 a barrel.

Wheat: September Wheat futures fell yesterday, as traders await Tuesday’s U.S. crop production and supply-demand reports. Expectations are that the USDA will lower world wheat production when it issues its September crop report Tuesday. These expectations led to a broad based sell-off in the grains. September Wheat futures fell 2 ½ cents, to settle at $4.13 ½ cents per bushel.

Gold: December Gold futures fell for the fourth straight day, this time breaking the psychologically important $600 mark. This is the first time since late June Gold has settled below $600. The main factors continue to be the recent rise in the Dollar, coupled with declines in Crude Oil. December Gold futures closed down $20.00 at $597.30 a troy ounce.

Monday, September 11, 2006

Are The Lows In For Sugar?

Are the lows in for Sugar? That is the question traders are asking themselves, after Sugar futures finally saw a reprieve from the vicious 6-cent sell-off the past 2 months. Sharply lower prices have finally drawn some physical buyers back to the market, with recent tenders by Mexico and Iraq helping to keep prices from falling below key support at 11 cents. The 2006-07 world Sugar supply is expected to improve with current analyst estimates for a 2 to 4 million ton surplus next season. However, despite improved supply prospects, India still has an export ban in place to help control rising domestic prices. Read More....

The U.S. Dollar Has Made A Run Towards Support Levels

Finally, after 2 weeks of quiet, range-bound trading, the U.S. Dollar has made a run towards support levels against the Euro and Yen, thanks to lower Crude prices, and some decent domestic economic data. A record high trade surplus with China further added pressure on the Fed to back a policy for a stronger U.S. Dollar against the yuan despite the end of the peg back in July 2005. The move to base the exchange rate of yuan on a group of world currencies and allow it to fluctuate ever so slightly on a daily basis has disappointed U.S. officials, since it's only risen 2% against the Dollar in that time. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: October Crude Oil futures fell for the fifth straight day. This continues a four-week sell-off, totaling more than $11. Friday’s pressure was attributed to expectations that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will leave production quotas unchanged when the cartel meets on Monday. The October Crude Oil contract fell $1.07, to close at $66.25 a barrel.

Silver: December Silver futures continued their week-long decline on Friday, closing down 5.9% on the week. At one point on Friday, December Silver traded at $12.09, it’s lowest level since August 29. However, the contract did come off its lows before the closing bell. The December Silver contract closed down 40 cents at $12.295 an ounce.

Gold: December Gold futures fell for the third straight day, creating a three-session total loss of $29.60 an ounce. The main factors were the recent rise in the Dollar, coupled with declines in Crude Oil. Also factoring in were news releases of major mine expansions in South Africa and rising production in China. December Gold futures closed down $7.60 at $617.30 a troy ounce.

Friday, September 08, 2006

LIFFE Sugar Soars!

LIFFE Sugar soars! After hitting contract lows at the end of August, LIFFE white Sugar futures have been on a bullish tear to start September, with the lead month October contract gaining nearly $55 per ton and posting its largest weekly gain since 1989. There are concerns of possible supply tightness due to an export ban in India, which may be extended until December. This news has traders short the October contract scrambling to buy back the position before last trading day on September 15th. Those who remain short after this date will be forced to deliver white Sugar to the longs, and with supplies being extremely tight, traders will have to pay-up to obtain deliverable supplies. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar kept its head above water for another day, with the Dollar Index ending the day up 48 ticks. The most recent commitment of traders report showed that big speculators took 2000 long Euro contracts off the table last week, implying some improvement, in terms of Dollar sentiment. Rising unit labor costs have also increased the odds of additional rate support, which contributed to the Dollar's strong posture this week. There is a lot of UK data next week, which could potentially shake the Pound out of recent bout of softness. Also, at the end of next week, will be a G7 meeting. Although nothing substantial is expected in terms of Chinese Yuan revaluation, rumors are likely to be floating around and making markets jittery.

The Dollar Kept A Firm Posture Yesterday

The Dollar kept a firm posture yesterday, and is up in early U.S. trade. Stocks, however, suffered on inflation fears, with investors worried that the Fed may not be done with rates hikes. Wednesday's steep hike in labor costs seems to be the impetus, though overnight, equity futures were up. On the data front, Thursday's releases were on the soft side. July wholesale inventories were unchanged at .8%, but wholesale sales up only 0.4% in July, against expectations of 1.2%. Last month's figure was 1.4%. In terms of today's data, it includes only consumer credit figures for July, which are expected at 5 billion. Read More....

Corn Traders Await USDA Report

Corn traders await USDA report: Corn traders are beginning to square their positions ahead of September's USDA crop report. The report scheduled to be released on Tuesday, will give traders a better feel for the size of this year's crop. Current estimates are for a 2006-07 Corn crop of 11 billion bushels, nearly 25 million bushels better than last month's USDA estimate. Corn yields are expected to increase to 152.5 bushels an acre, up 0.3 bushels per acre. Read More....

Gold Brick

Gold brick: So much for the recent rally! Traders and investors rushed to exit from the yellow metal today as a surging US Dollar against the Euro made Gold less attractive to foreign buyers. After starting off the holiday shortened week making 4-week highs, it has been all down hill for Gold with today's sharp decline negating the potential upside breakout on the daily charts. Commodity funds, who were big buyers in the entire metals complex on Tuesday, were the main sellers today, cutting their losses and triggering speculative sell-stops once the December contract fell through support at $635.00 and $630.00. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: Crude Oil futures fell for the fourth straight day, closing at new five-month lows. Yesterday’s decline can be attributed to BP’s announcement of a return to full production at Prudhoe Bay. The four-session decline in Crude Oil has now reached 4%. The October Crude Oil contract closed down 18 cents at $67.32 a barrel.

Natural Gas: Natural Gas futures closed at their lowest level in almost two years, after U.S. data showed a rise in domestic supply. According to WTRG’s Williams: “This is the first above normal injection in a long time”. October Natural Gas closed down 27.6 cents at $5.718 per million British thermal units.

Gold: Gold futures fell for the second straight day, creating a two-session total loss of $22 an ounce. There were several factors leading to the decline. The main factors were the recent rise in the Dollar, coupled with declines in Crude Oil. Also factoring in were news releases of major mine expansions in South Africa, and rising production in China. December Gold futures closed down $16.90 at $624.90 a troy ounce

Thursday, September 07, 2006

FX Closing Comments

Once again the Dollar held its own, with DXU06 up 43 ticks. In terms of data, however, the news was on the soft side. July wholesale inventories were unchanged at .8%, but wholesale sales up only 0.4% in July, against expectations of 1.2%. Last month's figure was 1.4%. Aside from the Yen, which was up only slightly on the day, all other majors were down. As expected the Bank of England held tight at 4.75%. Looking ahead, the week may putter-out softly, as little U.S. data remains. Tomorrow will bring only consumer credit figures for July, which are expected at 5 billion.

The Dollar Remained Firm Yesterday

The Dollar remained firm yesterday, with potentially hawkish data and retreating Crude prices proving a helpful combination. The inflationary data came in the form of unit labor costs. Aside from climbing to a much higher-than-expected 4.9% in the 2 nd quarter, the Q1 figure was revised to an amazing 9%, from a previously reported 2.5%. Naturally the big jump will raise eyebrows at the Fed, but the large revision may also call into question the reliability of the data. Crude futures dropping another $1 and driving south of $70, to $67.50, may have also assisted the greenback. Read More....

Will The September Effect End The Stock Market Rally?

Will the September effect end the stock market rally? Stock index traders survived choppy price action in June and July, as the market struggled for direction. Starting in August, stocks started an upward swing, as investors and traders welcomed news that the Fed may be finished with their tightening campaign. Bond yields started to fall, sending fresh money into the stock market. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: A decrease in supply worries led October Crude Oil futures to close at five-month lows yesterday. With a mild hurricane season, coupled with no recent escalations to the situation in Iran, traders continue to sell below the significant $70 a barrel mark. October Crude Oil futures closed down $1.10 at $67.50 a barrel.

Wheat: December Wheat futures slid yesterday, brining the contract down from its six-week highs. Wheat had been in a sustained rally, stemming from global production worries. Yesterday’s drop-off was simply overdue, according to Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. The December Wheat contract closed down 5 cents at $4.17 a bushel.

Gold: December Gold Futures fell on Wednesday at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Profit-taking, coupled with a firm Dollar were attributed to the sell-off. The contract still remained in Tuesday’s trading range yesterday, unable to make a significant move. December Gold settled down $5.10 at $641.80 a troy ounce.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Base Metal Rally Sends Copper To 4-Month Highs

Base metal rally sends Copper to 4-month highs: After nearly 4 months of grueling price consolidation, Copper futures have resumed the bull trend, breaking above a major downtrend, as commodity funds started to shift funds from the energy complex to base metals. In London, Zinc, Lead, Tin, and Aluminum also posted solid gains this morning, giving further support for Copper to move higher. Now that the strike at the Escondida mine in Chile is over, traders are focusing their attention on the soon-to-be-expired labor contract at Codelco, the world's largest producer of Copper. After yesterday sharp run-up, buyers were again eager to jump on the Copper bandwagon, especially after a slightly lower opening washed out weak longs, giving strong hands a chance to buy Copper at lower levels. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar stood firm today, before, during, and after the day's data. Overall the data was balanced with the ISM service-sector index slightly higher, unit labor costs slightly higher, and Q2 productivity right on target. The Pound and Aussie-Dollar fell under pressure, while the other majors held tight. Looking ahead, tomorrow will bring a rate announcement (or non-announcement) from the Bank of England, as well as wholesales sale figures (exp. .9%) and wholesale inventories (exp. .7%) in the U.S.

After Several Weeks Of Sideways Trade

After several weeks of sideways trade, Gold looks poised to make its move. Commodity funds and investors came back from the long Labor Day Holiday in the U.S. and actively returned as eager buyers to the entire metals complex, including Gold. The most-active December Gold contract shot to 4-week highs, triggering buy-stops along the way. The surprising aspect about yesterday's price surge was that it occurred without any help from the energy complex, which continues to sell-off. Read More....

The Major Theme For Today Is Likely To Be Inflation

The major theme for today is likely to be inflation. In the U.S., unit labor costs rose slightly more than expected in the 2nd Quarter (4.9%), while productivity came in at 1.6%, which was largely as expected. The Dollar is marginally higher on the news. Looking ahead, the ISM service-sector index is in store, along with the Fed's Beige book. These, too, will be analyzed for clues for further clues on the nation's inflation picture. If we are, indeed, in the latter stages of the business cycle, labor market inflation would seem likely. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude Oil: October Crude Oil futures closed at its lowest level since March 28. Leading the way for the decline was the successful discovery of oil in the Gulf of Mexico. This discovery eased supply concerns, and overshadowed worries of hurricane season. October Crude Oil futures closed down 59 cents at $68.60 a barrel.

Natural Gas: Natural Gas futures ended a three-day decline on Tuesday. Concerns stemming from Tropical Storm Florence were attributed to the gains. While the storm’s path is unknown, its existence was enough to cause concern over the U.S. Gulf Coast gas fields. October Natural Gas futures closed up 16.2 cents at $6.039 per million British thermal units.

Gold: Gold futures rose Tuesday, on speculative buying, as traders returned from the Labor Day Holiday. Gold closed at its highest level in almost a month. Funds piled into the Gold futures Tuesday, as the jewelry buying season begins. December Gold futures settled up $14.30 at $646.90 an ounce.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar began the week moderately strong, with the Dollar Index gaining 29 ticks. The Pound, however, was soft on the day, on the back of a slack PMI figure for August. The New Zealand Dollar was also down on the day, owing to a warning statement from S&P. The biggest gainer was the Yen, which benefited from a very strong capital expenditure report. Tomorrow in the U.S., we look are looking for a revised Q2 productivity number near 1.5%.

Traders Perk Up To LIFFE Coffee

Traders perking up to LIFFE Coffee: The robusta Coffee futures traded in London have been on a tear of late, with the September contract posting highs not seen since 1998. Tight supplies are behind the price surge, as the market is feeling the effects of a below average harvest last season in Vietnam, the world's largest producer of robusta Coffee. Read More....

Slow week for the Dollar

This week may be the week FX markets revert back to more familiar patterns, as the summer enters its final phase (in the northern hemisphere, that is). With the Labor Day holiday behind us in the U.S. and much of Europe and the Middle East returning from their holidays, traders can, once again, concern themselves with the capital markets. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Sugar: Growers in the U.S. are expecting Sugar Cane harvests to be better than last years crops in the state of Louisiana. Analysts say Louisiana's cane tonnage is expected to be up 10%-15% from last year. They also stated that crops in Louisiana are at their lowest levels in the last 3 years, but the hope is for a recovery with sunny weather in September and October. The October Sugar contract settled down 41 on Friday at 11.39.

Dollar: The Dollar is not expected to make any dramatic moves this week. Traders are saying most of the reports that are due out all contain what is considered second tier data and are unlikely to provide much incentive for trading. The September Dollar contract settled on Friday at 8489, down 13 points.

Friday, September 01, 2006

Cocoa Ends On A High Note

Cocoa futures ended the day on a high note, with speculative and trade buying nearly wiping out the week's losses. Monday's steep losses may have finally exhausted the selling pressure that Cocoa has been under since mid-July. Thin pre-holiday trading coupled with a lack of origin selling allowed December Cocoa to trade over 1500 per ton. Speculative buying returned today, after December failed to take-out support at 1450. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar was back and forth today, spending most of the day higher, before falling later in the day. The decent job's report supported the Dollar earlier this morning, but the gains gradually dissipated with the Dollar Index closing the day down 13 ticks. The holiday-shorted session may have contributed to the Dollar's late day softness, with traders not wanting to be "caught long" heading into what is only a U.S. bank holiday. Asian and European banks will be open on Monday. Markets are now gearing-up for more normal, post-summer, trade and keeping an eye on September's G7 and FOMC meetings. Enjoy the weekend!

The Dollar Has Perked-Up

After this morning's non-farm payroll number, the Dollar has perked-up, though the move has a gradual feel to it. In terms of the actual number, 128,000 jobs were created in August, while the unemployment rate slipped from 4.8% to 4.7%. This time around, analysts seem to have pegged the number with great accuracy, leaving markets, thus far, little changed. At first glance, the figure probably does not alter the Fed's current thinking, and a continued pause next month remains likely. Read More....

Spot On!

Spot on! Finally economists and traders were able to correctly guess the non-farm payrolls number for August. The figure released at 7:30 am Chicago time showed that payrolls in August climbed by 128,000, almost exactly the 130,000 jobs figure most analysts were expecting. The unemployment rate dropped 0.1% to 4.7%, in-line with expectations. For inflation-watchers, there was good news, as average hourly earnings increased by 0.1%, well below the 0.3% expected and last month's 0.4% rise. The payroll figures for July were revised upward to 121,000 jobs, from the previously reported 113,000 jobs. Read More....

Markets to Watch Today

Crude-Oil: Crude-Oil futures traded in choppy fashion on Thursday, as traders kept an eye on the nuclear stand-off with Iran. Also contributing to the volatility were the labor tensions in Nigeria and the upcoming holiday weekend in the United States. Crude futures ended the day slightly higher. The October contract settled up 23 cents at $70.26 a barrel.

Wheat: Wheat futures rose again, as traders worry about global supplies. Over the past week, Wheat futures have risen 7.6%. Bulls are finding support from quality concerns of the global Wheat crop. A July heat wave and heavy August rains are slowing harvest in several European countries. A lack of rain in Australia, Argentina, and the United States compound these concerns. September Wheat futures settled up 6.5 cents at $4.04 a bushel.

Copper: Copper futures rose, as the market found technical support. This technical buying overshadowed news that the labor strike at the world’s largest copper mine, Chile’s Escondida, had come to a provisional settlement. This settlement threatens to end the 25-day strike. September Copper futures settled up 10.4 cents at $3.469 a pound.