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Friday, June 30, 2006

Bean bounce

Bean bounce: Soybean futures surged to near 3-week highs, as the USDA's stocks and acreage estimated fell to the lower end of most analyst's expectations.The USDA reported this morning that U.S. farmers planted 74.9 million acres, up 4% from last year, but below the previous USDA estimate of 76.895 million acres. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

Friday witnessed the 2nd day of Dollar losses, as traders continued sense a "dovish" tone hidden between the words of yesterday's Fed announcement. Looking ahead, Monday is likely to be a tempered session, as it is between a popular holiday weekend and the actual holiday on Tuesday. The ECB will be meeting next Thursday, though no change is likely, and the June non-farm payroll number will be released on Friday. The head-line number is expected to show 125,000 new jobs.

Dollar Trending Down After Fed Announcement

The Dollar continues to trend down after yesterday's Fed announcement. After raising rates by the expected 25 basis points to 5.25%, the Fed's much awaited statement was released in the afternoon. The statement kept open the possibility of additional rate hikes and implied that the Fed continued to be in "wait and see" mode. Read More....

Gasoline is on Fire!

Gasoline is on Fire! Once again, U.S. consumers should be prepared for higher Gasoline prices going into the peak summer driving season. In the past seven sessions, August Unleaded Gasoline has risen almost 23 cents a gallon, due to strong demand and production issues at several U.S. refineries. Read More....

4th Of July Holiday Trading Schedule

Markets To Watch Today

Copper: Labor shortages at Copper mines globally, as well as some bullish technical chart signals, pushed copper prices up yesterday. July Copper was up 13 cents, closing at $3.4230 per pound.

Live Cattle: Traders taking profits ahead of contract expiration on the June contract and strong grain prices pressured Live Cattle contracts in yesterday's trading. June Cattle dropped 2.40 cents, closing at 83.85 cents per pound.

Energies: Gasoline prices skyrocketed to their highest prices since last summer's+ hurricane season. Several refineries are still reporting concerns about supplies in what is expected to be a very strong driving season. July Unleaded Gasoline contracts reached as high as $2.30, however settled 8.89 cents higher on the day at $2.2948 a gallon.The rally in Gasoline has pushed Crude Oil contracts higher, as well. August Crude Oil was up $1.33 a barrel, closing at $73.52.

Thursday, June 29, 2006

Bernanke's Big Day!

Bernanke's big day! The Federal Reserve, as expected, raised the Fed Funds rate 25 basis points to 5.25% this afternoon. This was the 17th consecutive 25 basis point increase in the past two years. However, in the statement released after the announcement, the Fed appears to be keeping their options open for further rate increases, leaving some hope that the Fed may be finished raising rates if the out look for inflation moderates. This is construed from the following sentence: Read More....

FX Closing Comments

In a good example of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" the Dollar sold-off significantly after today's Fed announcement. Although the quarter-point move was widely predicted and built into the market's expectation, when the chances of a 50-pt move was safely past, the Dollar fell hard with the Dollar Index dropping 100 ticks in the 2 o'clock hour. The index closed the session down 77 ticks. All other majors made gains on the day vis. a vis. the greenback with the Loonie the day's biggest winner. Tomorrow will bring personal income figures and the Michigan survey, although trade is likely to be light in FX pairs ahead of a quasi-holiday weekend.

Gold Traders Have Been Holding Back The Last Few Days

Gold traders have been holding back the last few days, waiting to hear what the Federal Reserve has to say regarding the direction of interest rates in the US. So far, the Gold market is factoring in a 25-basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate, but traders will be looking closely to the wording of the Fed's statement to see if they are near the end of their tightening campaign. A hawkish statement would be interpreted as bearish for the Gold market, as higher interest interest rates may lead to a stronger US Dollar, which makes Gold more expensive in foreign currencies,and cuts demand. If it appears that the Fed is done raising rates, then traders believe a Gold rally is in store. We will find out what's in store when the Fed announces its decision at 1:15 pm Chicago time today. Read More....

USD/CAD: The 1st Half

Yesterday was another slower session in the FX markets, as traders continued to wait on today's Fed announcement. The statement is to be released at 2:00 p.m. EST. An uninspiring economic calendar before a much-anticipated FOMC meeting has, in recent sessions, given the market an excuse to take a breather. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Crude Oil: Crude Oil futures ended on an up-swing, brought on by U.S. data showing a larger-than-expected decline in Crude stocks and strong gasoline demand. Gasoline prices triggered a sell-off due to the reopening of part of the Louisiana shipping channel, however traders are still tense due to a new snag at a Philadelphia refinery. August Crude Oil closed 27 cents higher at $72.19 a barrel.

Copper: Copper rallied yesterday, as traders even up their positions ahead of the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. July Copper was up 10.60 cents, closing at $3.2930 per pound.

Coffee: Coffee futures reached 3-week highs yesterday, due to some speculative fund buying as well as options-related interest due to the start of Brazil's winter. Late June to early July is the time when trees in Brazil's coffee growing region are most at risk for frost damage. July Coffee at the New York Board of Trade closed up 2.35 cents at 97.70 cents per pound. September Coffee contracts closed up 2.40 cents at 99.10 cents per pound.

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Iced Coffee

Iced Coffee: Coffee futures closed at 2-week highs today, as a surprise cold snap in the Coffee growing region of southern Minas Gerais in Brazil caused a short-covering rally. Commodity funds and speculators were the main buyers today, triggering buy-stops above 98.00 in the September contract. Prices reached the psychologically important 100.00 level before origin selling came in to push prices off the highs before the close. Weather forecasts call for warmer temperatures in the Brazilian Coffee growing regions for the remainder of the week, which may put an end to further gains near-term. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

Price action in the FX pairs has been subdued in recent sessions ahead of tomorrow's Fed meeting. As a quick review: markets are very confident of another .25% upward move, while there exists an outside chance of a .5% move. A half-point move would likely cause a great deal of volatility. Baring this, if the expected 25-pt move is announced, attention will shift to the commentary, with many analysts expecting a hawkish tone in response to recent inflationary signals. Also be on the look-out for an upward revision to Q1 GDP tomorrow, which would imply a faster pace of growth and a higher amount of inflation than previously thought.

Traders Continue Their Fed Decision Vigil

FX markets were extremely tame yesterday, with hardly any movement at all in the major pairs. Although existing housing figures for May were released early in the session, markets did not move an inch, as traders continue their Fed vigil. Read More....

Crude Realities: Crude Oil Futures Are Clinging To The $72 A Barrel Level

Crude realities: Crude Oil futures are clinging to the $72 a barrel level, as the Calcasieu Ship Channel in southwestern Louisiana, which serves four Oil refineries, remains closed due to an oil spill last week. This has traders concerned that U.S. Gasoline supplies may not be adequate going into the Fourth of July weekend. Read More....

Join Us Today at 1:00PM For Platform Walkthrough Our Site!

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

Markets To Watch Today

Wheat: The U.S. Agriculture department reported worsening conditions in the Northern Plains. This resulted in Hard Red Spring Wheat futures contracts rallying yesterday at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. July Wheat was up 11.25 cents per bushel, closing at $4.8175. September Wheat, which is the upcoming harvest contract, was up 9.75 cents, to close at $4.8450.

Copper: Selling pressure brought on by softer equities resulted in High Grade Copper Futures prices falling yesterday. Front month July Copper fell 13.70 cents, closing at $3.1870 per pound.

Energies: With the Fourth of July around the corner, Gasoline futures prices are poised to hit record numbers in the strongest-ever travel season. Oil analysts say that they are expecting gasoline deliveries to hit a record high of 9.721 barrels a day, a record that was set last year. The strong demand has already resulted in rising prices in Gasoline futures, which reached prices not seen since last August. July Unleaded Gasoline was up 1.97 cents, to close at $2.10 a gallon. August Crude Oil contracts closed up 12 cents, at $71.92.

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

FX Closing Comments

FX markets were extremely tame today with hardly any movement at all in the major pairs. Although existing housing figures for May were released early in the session, markets did not move an inch, as traders wait on the Fed. For the record, existing home sales slid 1.2% in May to a 12-month total of 6.670m. Baring any outside occurrences overnight, tomorrow too looks set to be another slow day, with no new data on the U.S. calendar. In Japan, however, retail sales figures for May are on tap. These numbers are in many ways comparable to the U.S. housing numbers, in that they are often seen as a proxy for underlying growth. The stability of Japanese retails sales is a key barometer of the strength or sustainability of the recent turn-around. As the Bank of Japan is known to be actively debating the timing and size of their 1st rate hike in 5 years, tonight's numbers will certainly carrying extra weight.

Shakeout Sends Copper Lower

Shakeout sends Copper lower: It was an event filled day in the COMEX Copper ring, with a report of an 5.6 magnitude earthquake in northern Chile's Copper mining region, option expiration for the July contract, and a report by the International Copper Study Group all contributing to today's volatile trade. Prices initially rallied in London, when word hit about the earthquake in Northern Chile. This area is home to some of the world's largest Copper mines, and concerns about possible damage sent prices higher. Read More....

GBP/USD: The 1st Half

The Dollar slid back a little yesterday and was largely unchanged overnight, as markets disregarded new housing figures and marked time until Thursday's Fed meeting. Today we will learn about existing home sales through May, which are expected at 6.695 million. In Europe, the German IFO index was announced at 106.8, stronger than the expected 105.5. Read More....

Soybeans Looked Poised To Test Recent Lows

Soybeans looked poised to test recent lows: This year's Soybean crop has started out as expected, with the USDA reporting 67% of the U.S. Soybean crop rated good-to-excellent. This decent start has traders taking some of the "weather premium" out of the market, with prices headed below $6 a bushel for the new-crop November Soybeans. Traders will be looking towards this Friday's USDA acreage and grain stocks report for further clarification to the actual size of this year's Bean crop. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Grains: Grain futures prices were pressured by good weather forecasts developing in the Midwest for corn and soybean crops. July Soybeans dropped 11 cents to $5.6950 a bushel and July Corn fell 5.25 cents to close at $2.23 a bushel.

Energies: Traffic along the Calcasieu Ship Channel in southwestern Louisiana has all but come to a halt. Two of the four refineries that use that channel are running at reduced rates, causing a boost to Gasoline and Crude Oil futures. July Unleaded Gasoline was up 5.12 cents, to close at $2.1788 a gallon. August Crude Oil closed 93 cents higher at $71.80 a barrel.

Dollar: As investors await the Fed rate decision, the Dollar is losing ground. Despite the unexpected increase of 4.6% in U.S. sales of new homes last month, the Dollar still struggles. Analysts state the weak Dollar is not due to any fundamental shift or news, but is a result of nervous investors awaiting the Fed meeting on Thursday. In yesterday's trading, the September Dollar contract was down 35, closing at 8610.

Monday, June 26, 2006

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar slide back a little today, as markets digested the brisk new housing figures and marked time until Thursday's Fed meeting. On an annual basis through June, new home sales grew to 1.234 million, which was higher than the expected 1.180m. Existing home sales are due tomorrow and expected at 6.695 million. Also tomorrow, during the European session, the German IFO index is expected at 105.5. Beyond those reports, the big day is Thursday when the Fed will release their decision and commentary. Thursday will also see a revision to the 1st quarter's GDP figure. An upward revision is expected, which would imply stronger-than-anticipated growth and a potentially higher peak in the Fed funds rate.

Cattle Moovin' higher!

Talk about your bull markets! Live Cattle futures hit contract highs this afternoon, as bears rushed to cover losing positions on the back of a very bullish Cattle-on-Feed report. The report, released on Friday afternoon, announced higher than expected Cattle marketings in May, and a lower than expected number of Cattle on U.S. feedlots. Read More....

DJ Nybot FCOJ Review: Futures Drop As Storm Threats Fade

Most-active September frozen concentrated orange juice futures fell 500
points to $1.6435 Monday on the New York Board of Trade after setting 15-year
highs late last week. Traders attribute the drop to forecasts for storms that
have not materialized.

"The buying that took us into new highs was betting this low pressure center
over the Bahamas would develop" into a tropical storm, said an FCOJ broker.

"We got a little bit of disappointment for traders that the tropical
disturbance didn't amount to anything," said Mike Zarembski, analyst and
futures desk manager at XPRESSTRADE in Chicago.

July FCOJ contracts slipped 700 points to $1.6300, the low price Monday.

Zarembski said the market may fall further before it picks up again. He said
he expects another decline Tuesday and possibly later.

"We may have to drop down to $1.60 or so on September contracts before we see
some speculative buyers come in," Zarembski said.

He placed September support near term at $1.6250 and stronger support at
$1.60, with resistance at $1.6945.

July open interest fell 185 lots to 3,601 Monday, while September rose 393
lots to 19,463. Total open interest increased 247 lots to 28,410.

Will Cocoa's Trading Range Continue?

Will Cocoa's trading range continue? Cocoa futures have been mired in an increasingly narrow trading range recently, as traders try to figure out the market's next move. The bear camp cites favorable weather for the 2006-07 crop, with some analysts predicting a production increase of over 100,000 tons from last year's harvest. Bulls will counter that even with a production increase, demand continues to overtake supply, with an estimated deficit of 90,000 tons this year. Recently, prices have started to hold above several key moving averages, giving momentum traders a bullish bias. Read More....

USD/JPY: 2006 Weekly Chart

The Dollar was mildly soft overnight, as traders await the two-day Fed meeting later in the week. Anticipation has been growing for many weeks, as fears of inflation have drawn the market's attention and prompted a number of hawkish comments from Fed officials. The FOMC is widely expected to raise by a 25bps, with an outside chance of a 50pt hike. A half-point move would surely shake-up the market, as would a "dovish" press conference. The market is also pricing an additional 25-pt move in August. Read More....

CANCELLING PENETRATED ORDERS!!

You may have noticed that on the Active Orders screen, when you cancel any pending or working order, the status of that order shows as CXL-Requested. This language is intended to accurately describe the event that's taken place - you've requested that your order be cancelled. This does not mean that the order necessarily has been cancelled or that the order will be able to be cancelled successfully. It simply means that you've instructed us to attempt to cancel the order, and you can be sure that we"ll act upon your cancellation request immediately.

So why can't we confirm that an order has definitely been cancelled? In the futures market, the floor brokers standing in the trading pits -- and even the exchanges that operate electronic trading platforms, such as Globex -- do not ordinarily confirm that an order has been cancelled. In other words, after we transmit your cancellation request to the trading pit or to the exchange’s electronic trading engine, we do not receive any messages back confirming that the cancellation attempt was successful. Thus, we've always steered clear of the word "Cancelled", which implies that the order has in fact been cancelled with certainty. And the term that we used at one time in the past, "Cancel, " is rather ambiguous and isn't particularly accurate. We feel that the phrase "CXL - Requested" most clearly describes the true status of the order -- you have requested that the order be cancelled.

Please keep in mind that even though you've attempted to cancel a working order, it's conceivable that the order might already have been executed in the marketplace. This is not uncommon, for instance, in open-outcry trading pits during periods of extreme volume or volatility. Under such circumstances, the floor broker handling your order in the trading pit may have become so busy that he or she simply hasn't had time to "endorse" the order and send the fill confirmation back to us. In this case, the Active Orders screen would show a status of "CXL - Requested" until we've received the fill confirmation, at which time the status will change to "Filled Too Late To Cancel (TLTC)." The term "TLTC" is a widely used term in the futures industry and means Too Late to Cancel. Sometimes, you can almost tell if an order you've attempted to cancel will ultimately be "Filled (TLTC)."

If you've seen the market penetrate your limit price on several occasions, there's probably a good chance that the order was executed but a confirmed fill hasn't yet been received. In this case, we here at XPRESSTRADE suggest that you do not cancel an order you feel deserves a fill. You may either send an Order Check through the XPRESSTRADE system, or call us here at 1-800-947-6228 and request that the order be checked with the floor. We will contact the floor immediately and attempt to confirm the fill on your order. This saves time for both yourself and XPRESSTRADE because it takes more time for a filling broker to find a working order than it does a potentially cancelled order. Once we receive a confirmation of a fill we will post it to your account. If we confirm that the order was not filled you can feel free to cancel the order. We hope that this will take some of the stress out of waiting for the slower pit traded markets.

Markets To Watch Today

Cocoa: Prices rose steadily for cocoa contracts on Friday, as word came that Brazil's cocoa bean crop has been battling witch's broom disease, a deadly fungi for raw cocoa beans. A collaborative effort between the privately held Mars Inc., maker of M&M's and Milky Way bars, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture has led to a successful spray product called Trichovab, a good fungus, to stamp out the witch's broom disease, without harming the cocoa pods. The September Cocoa contract closed up 8 cents per metric ton, at 1543.

Dollar: Investors await the Federal Reserve interest rate decision this week, expecting the move to be more hawkish than expected. Analysts say two factors will dominate this week's activity in the currency markets, including whether or not the Dollar will continue to trade within well established ranges against other major currencies, and how the weakening yen will continue, even with uncertainty of the timing of a rate increase by the Bank of Japan. The Dollar closed up 44 points, at 86.45.

Friday, June 23, 2006

Supply concerns send LME Copper higher!

3-month Copper futures closed higher, but still below the psychologically important $7000 a ton level, on concerns of continued supply disruptions. Labor issues continue to take center stage, with an upcoming labor contract expiring in August at Chile's Escondida Copper mine and a continued strike at the Konkola Copper Mines in Zambia. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar had another decent day today (DX up 44 points), after durable good sales perked-up a little in May. The headline number was up 1.4%, while the figure without transportation was up .8%. The two big happenings next week will be the housing data for May and another highly anticipated Fed meeting. Fed is expected to move at least 25bps, with an outside chance of a 50bp move. Existing housing sales are expected at 6.74m on an annual basis, while new home sales are expected to total 1.169m.

Don't Give Up On Us Baby! By Mark Loehrke

Investors rethinking the viability of commodities in light of recent downturns in a few signature markets would do well to look at the big picture and consider something odd -- this actually might be the right time to buy. Read More....

New Zealand/USD: Trade Deficit Woes

The Dollar made some strong gains yesterday and is firm heading into the U.S. session, although the precise reasons are difficult to pin down. The most popular view seems to hold that a sell-off in some emerging currencies - namely the South African Rand and New Zealand Dollar - initiated a bout of "flight-to-quality" Dollar buying. Some dovish commentary from a Bank of Japan board member (rates will be adjusted "very slowly and very carefully") may have also helped the greenback, which rose significantly against the Yen. (FT). Read More...

Canadian Dollar Futures Were Sharply Lower Today

Canadian Dollar futures were sharply lower today, as a sharply higher U.S. Dollar and perceived dovish comments from Bank of Canada governor David Dodge weighted in the Loonie. Today's sell-off erased yesterday's gains caused by a higher than expected Canadian retail sales report. After the report was released, Bank of Canada governor David Dodge dismissed analysts expectations of another interest rate increase in July by suggesting the BOC will not swayed by one month's worth of data. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Cotton: Forecasts for rain in Cotton producing regions and option related activity pressured Cotton prices yesterday. The July Cotton contract dropped 1.77 cents to close at 49.12 cents per pound.

Silver: A stronger Dollar brought down Silver prices yesterday in trading at the COMEX. July Silver dropped 21 cents, to close at $10.21 an ounce.

Crude Oil: Crude futures rose above $71 yesterday, after concerns over a blocked waterway in western Louisiana were reported. This supply route serves three oil refineries, including the 4th largest in the U.S. August Crude ended the day 51 cents higher, closing at $70.84 a barrel. July Gasoline futures were up 5.20 cents, closing at $2.1180 a gallon.

Thursday, June 22, 2006

Oh Canada!

Canadian Dollar futures were sharply lower today, as a sharply higher U.S. Dollar and perceived dovish comments from Bank of Canada governor David Dodge weighted in the Loonie. Today's sell-off erased yesterday's gains caused by a higher than expected Canadian retail sales report. Read More....

Join Us At 1:00 PM CDT For Our Platform Walkthrough

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

GBP/USD Overnight Drop

The Dollar slipped a little yesterday in the absence of any fresh data. The September Dollar Index fell 42 points, to close at 85.34. The big mover on Wednesday was the Canadian Dollar, which saw consistent gains and was helped along by firm energy prices. Read More....

Is Japan Becoming Bullish to U.S. Beef?

Is Japan becoming bullish to U.S. beef? Live Cattle futures have had a nice run up the last few sessions, as rumors that Japan would ease restrictions on beef imports from the U.S. circulated through the Cattle pits. Yesterday, the rumors were confirmed, with Japan and U.S. officials announcing an agreement for Japan to begin the process to resume imports of U.S. beef. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Crude Oil: A rally in gasoline futures, sparked by a report from the government of a smaller than expected build in gasoline stocks and lowered expectations of an agreement on nuclear talks between Iran and the West, lifted Crude Oil prices yesterday. August Crude Oil was up 99 cents, closing at $70.33 a barrel.

Spring Wheat: Concerns about the Spring Wheat crop health in the northern plains lifted prices at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange yesterday. The July Wheat was up 13 cents, to close at $4.59 bushel.

Live Cattle: The June Cattle prices experienced little change yesterday, on word that this weekend teams of Japanese auditors will be arriving in the U.S. to inspect beef producing plants. Japan and the U.S. Department of Agriculture have been working on agreements for months now, after a shipment of veal that contained a prohibited material, was shipped to Japan. June Live Cattle fell only 20 cents, to close at 81.75 cents per pound.

Wednesday, June 21, 2006

Sugar Pops!

Sugar pops! World Sugar futures hit their highest levels of the month, as commodity funds have resumed their buying spree. Prices gapped higher this morning, following higher prices in London, and kept climbing once resistance at 15.88 in the October contract was taken out. Trade buying was seen early in the session, with light producer selling noted around 15.80 to 15.90. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar slipped a little bit today in the absence of any fresh data. The September Dollar index fell 42 points to close at 85.34. The big mover today was the Canadian Dollar, which saw consistent gains across the board in a day that saw firm prices for both Natural Gas and Crude markets. Yesterday's sharp rise in core inflation and today's strong retail sales figures have further strengthened the view that rates will be going up at the Bank of Canada's next meeting in July. Tomorrow will bring weekly jobless claims data and the Conference Board's leading indicator index.

Sideways Movement in the EUR/USD

In a session of restrained price action in currencies, the Japanese Yen was the biggest gainer yesterday. Yen action was primarily driven by remarks from BOJ Governor Fukui. The central bank chief had earlier prompted a Yen sell-off in response to his personal investment in a scandal-hit money management firm. At the time, many analysts have expressed concern that the fall in Japanese equity prices would forestall any rate increases from the country's central bank. Read More....

The Calm Before The Storm For O.J. Futures?

The calm before the storm for O.J. futures? Orange Juice traders have been spoiled this year, with a sharp rally propelling prices to highs not seen since the early 1990's. For all its hard work, the O.J. market is now in the midst of an early summer vacation, as the market has gone into a consolidation mode. Read More....

Join Us Today at 12:00 Noon CDT Today For A Platform Walkthrough

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

Markets To Watch Today

Crude Oil: Crude futures ended the day yesterday lower, as traders recovered from losses that were attributable on news that a top al-Qaida leader was killed yesterday in Iraq. July Crude closed down 4 cents, at $68.94 a barrel.

Currencies: Chicago Mercantile Exchange will begin to offer currency futures on the Chinese Yuan, starting in August 2006. The contract will be versus the U.S. Dollar, Euro and the Yen.

Sugar: World Sugar reached two-week highs on the New York Board of Trade yesterday, as buyers' concerns for dry weather in center-south Brazil increased. Brazil is the top cane-growing region in the world and is expected to break records this year as demand for both sugar and cane-based ethanol grows. July Sugar was up 0.36 cents per pound, to close at 15.21 cents per pound. October, which is the most active contract, was up 0.39 cents, to close at 15.58 cents per pound.

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Wheat Futures Higher On Lower Crop Ratings

Wheat futures higher on lower crop ratings: Wheat futures were higher across the board, led by Spring Wheat futures traded in Minneapolis, as the USDA announced a 7% decline in the good-to-excellent category for the Spring Wheat crop. This news, coupled with harvest delays to the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop due to wet weather in the Plains, allowed bulls to take control of the Wheat market today. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

Across nearly all sectors and asset classes, markets were essentially flat today. The Dollar Index closed down 16 ticks, and kept to tight ranges against the other majors. U.S. equity markets, as well as bonds, were flat on the day. Housing start and building permit data were released early in the day, and were slightly surprising to the upside, although the expectation remains that housing prices will be falling later in the year. New and Existing home sales data is due next week. Remaining data for this week includes durable goods and the Conference Board's leading indicator index.

USD/CAD: 6-Week Range

The Dollar maintained its confident posture overnight, while equities markets were generally slack. Today's housing data, at first glance, appears mildly encouraging. For May, housing starts were up 5% to 1,957,000 (higher than expected), while building permits were off 2.1% to 1,932 (less than expected). With most analysts predicting a slowdown in this crucial sector, today's numbers are in keeping with the slowdown theory, as permits did dip, but they imply that any slowdown may have a more gradual feel to it. The building permits number is 8.5% less than the May 2005 figure. Read More....

When Fundamentals And Technicals Collide

When fundamentals and technicals collide: Copper traders are caught in a bit of a quandary. Technical traders see the market as bearish, as a solid downtrend has formed, pushing prices lower by over $1 after making all-time highs back in May. Fundamental traders note continued tight supplies for Copper, due to ongoing strikes at several key Copper mines, strong demand from China and India, and continued drawdowns of Copper stocks in LME warehouses. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Energies: A deluge in the Houston area gave a modest lift in gasoline prices, although not enough to keep gasoline above $2 after hitting an intraday low of $1.9650. July Gasoline closed 4.68 cents lower at $1.9914 a gallon. Front month July Crude Oil closed down 90 cents lower, at $68.98 a barrel.

Grains: Favorable weather in the Midwest and near-term forecasts predicting good weather for crops were not enough to bring both Corn and Soybean futures relief from falling prices. Front month July Soybeans dropped 15.75 cents to $5.8450 per bushel, and July Corn fell 5.75 cents to close at $2.2975 per bushel.

Copper: A lack of consumer buying interest and a stronger Dollar pressured prices for Copper contracts yesterday. July Copper dropped 13.90 cents to close at $3.1525 a pound.

Monday, June 19, 2006

Shakin' Bacon!

July and August Pork Belly futures closed up the 300 point limit today, as speculators and commodity funds continue their buying binge. The most-active July Bellies contract hit highs not seen since December of 2004, as strong cash Hog prices and thin supplies are keeping the entire pork complex well supported. Read More....

CBOT To Offer "Side by Side" Trading of Ag Futures in August

Agricultural futures will begin trading electronically, “side by side” with the pit-traded session starting August 1st. On April 26th, the CBOT announced the introduction of a new day session to be conducted on the e-CBOT platform from 9:30 am to 1:15 pm CDT. The products offered will be fungible with those available in the open outcry market, meaning a contract on the electronic platform can be offset with a pit-traded contract and vice versa, because both sets of products have the same specifications, including settlement through physical delivery. The new session is designed to attract new market participants, such as proprietary traders and commercial hedgers who prefer electronic trading, as well as provide arbitrage opportunities between the floor and the screen, while improving international access to these markets. The e-CBOT’s current session is open overnight, from 6:30 pm to 6:00 am CDT, and accounts for less than 5% of the total volume in agricultural products. Options will not trade electronically and will remain available on the floor only.

USD/JPY: A Close - Up

Overnight, stocks were essentially flat while the Dollar made additional gains. Starting off the week in the U.S., the Dollar Index is up 41 points. The possibility exists for some slow trading in the coming weeks, as the end of the quarter nears and the next Fed meeting approaches. With the recent high volatility, it is likely that traders will be hesitant to add large positions and risk any quarterly gains before the end of the quarter. Read More....

Lower Prices Fail To Wake Up Coffee Bulls

Lower prices fail to wake up Coffee bulls: Coffee futures hit nine-month lows on Friday, as commodity funds and momentum traders continue to sell into the market. So far this year, the start of the winter frost season in Brazil has failed to provide any freezing weather to the Coffee growing areas of the country. This has led speculators to start bailing out of long positions taken in case a crop damaging frost hit. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Foreign Exchange: The currency markets expect to be calm this week while traders prepare for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at the end of June. The Dollar has remained steady recently in spite of inflationary talks recently by Fed officials for the better part of June. However, the Dollar is starting to show signs of eroding. Commodity prices stabilizing and global stocks rebounding are said to be factors for the Dollar pullback. Front Month September Dollar contracts closed on Friday down $0.12, at $85.52.

Friday, June 16, 2006

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar drifted lower today with few sizeable moves. The Dollar index closed down 12 ticks as the Dollar slipped against all the majors, except for the Yen. There remains a significant amount of indecision in the market with rising inflation and the prospect of slowing growth making headlines. On the one hand, the likelihood of additional rate support is helpful, though the resulting slower growth is unhelpful to longer-term projections. Monday does not have any additional data and is likely to be slow, barring any unexpected developments.

USD/CHF: Unmoved By Rate Move

The Dollar was essentially sideways during the U.S. session with the June Dollar index ending the day -9 at 86.06. The biggest "new negative" today was the soft capital inflow data from the Treasury, which noted only $42.7b in net foreign inflows in April. This figure was substantially less then the $63.4 trade deficit for the month. Read More....

Bulls Go Hog Wild!

Bulls go Hog wild! Traders holding long positions were as happy as pigs in slop yesterday, as Lean Hog futures posted new contract highs. Fundamentals remain positive, with low Hog supplies, strong pork demand , and higher cash market prices which have been behind the recent price surge. Commodity funds were eager buyers, triggering buy stops above 75.00 in the July contract. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Crude Oil: Returning bargain hunters pushed prices on July Crude Oil up for the second straight session in a row. Front month, July Crude Oil closed at $69.50 a barrel, up, 36 cents on the day.

Gold: Stronger crude oil prices and a soft dollar price brought on a rally in most commodities yesterday. The August Gold contract was able to benefit from this rally, up $3.80 an ounce, closing at $570.30 an ounce.

U.S. Dollar: Mixed U.S. economic data and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on inflation, lower the dollar in trading yesterday. Stronger than expected U.S. employment and regional industrial data were not enough to keep the dollar down, as it was able to recoup most of what it had lost earlier in the session. Front month Septemeber Dollar closed at $85.64 down 9.00.

Thursday, June 15, 2006

Sweet! A Sugar Rally!

Sweet! A Sugar rally! Sugar futures traded above the key 15 cent level this morning on trade buying, and higher Crude Oil prices. July made a 3-day high at 15.07, as world demand has started to pick up. Commodity funds continue to sell the July/October Spread as they roll-out of long July positions ahead of last trading day on June 30th. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar was essentially sideways during the U.S. session with the June Dollar index ending the day -9 at 86.06. The biggest "new negative" today was the soft industrial production figure, which came in at a -.1% for May, relative to last month's gain of .8%. The volatile Empire survey and weekly jobless claims were mixed. Claims dipped below 300,000 to 295,000. The Empire manufacturing survey spiked to 29 in June from last month's 12.4 and expectations of 12.9. Tomorrow, the market will learn the size of the U.S. current account deficit for Q1. It is estimated to be close to $205b.

Natural Gas Is Starting To Heat Up

Natural gas is starting to heat up: July Natural Gas futures rose nearly 7% yesterday, as weather forecasts are calling for above normal temperatures in the last half of June. Bearish fundamentals have caused an nearly $5 drop in Natural Gas prices since the start of the year keeping bearish traders in firm control of the market. However, Tropical Storm Alberto put a scare in the market, with traders fearing an early start to the Atlantic hurricane season. Read More....

Join Us Today At 1PM CDT For Our Platform Walkthrough

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

GBP/JPY: New 5-Year Highs

Yesterday was one of those counter-intuitive days in FX markets. Although the influential core CPI figure was sufficiently high and increased the likelihood of additional rate support, the Dollar sold-off. A few theories are being floated to help explain yesterday's price action. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today!

Gold and Silver: Metals futures had a mixed day yesterday as a traders were bargain hunting after the selloff on Tuesday. Profit taking toward the end of trading pressured front month June Gold, closing down 20 cents an ounce, at $562.30. Silver was not as affected by the profit taking and closed up 11 cents an ounce, at $9.735.

Copper: Again this metal too was affected by Tuesday's selloff, as traders bought back previously sold positions. July Copper was up 4.55 cents to close at $3.0560 a pound on Wednesday.

Natural Gas: Traders worried about a recent forecast of heat and early hurricane activity pushed Natural Gas futures prices up yesterday. July Natural Gas contracts closed up 6.9% yesterday, settling at $6.590 per million British thermal units. Today's weekly storage report should be the next catalyst for market movement, as analysts and traders expect to see an increase in inventories.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar cooled-off today after a full 7 days of gains. Even thought today's core CPI implied further rate hikes ahead, it seems that many long-Dollar traders chose today to take some profits. With the Fed funds pricing a 100% probability of a .25% rise in June, the likelihood of any additional rate premium was unlikely, in the absence of a July Fed meeting. In short, it was a good time to pause and lock-in profits. Tomorrow will bring weekly jobless claims, the Empire manufacturing index, and industrial production.

Trading In The Rain

Trading in the Rain: Corn futures fell below the $2.40 mark today, extending losses from earlier in the week. Front month July Corn is trading at its lowest level since the beginning of May, which remains the nearest form of support at $2.35 ½ a bushel. Crops are considered in solid condition with weather forecasts for the Midwest calling for increased rainfall in both coverage and amounts. Weakness in the Wheat and technical selling also contributed to the bearish market. Read More....

New Zealand/USD: Range-Bound

The key event for today is the core consumer price inflation report and the numbers are as follows: May headline CPI was .4% higher and the core CPI was .3% higher. Although the headline is lower than the previous month, the overall effect of today's figure would seem to be "Dollar supportive," however as of this writing, the Dollar has sold-off some in a spat of volatile trade. The YTD increase in the top-line figure is now 4.2% and the YTD core is 2.4%. Read More....

Could the days of $70+ Oil be nearing an end?

Oil futures slide lower: Could the days of $70+ Oil be nearing an end? Most likely not, but a correction may be in the works. July Crude Oil fell to the lowest levels in over two months on concerns that rising interest rates across the globe, but especially in the U.S., will slow down economic growth worldwide. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Crude Oil: Crude Futures fell yesterday after the International Energy Agency reduced its 2006 Global oil demand forecast and noted that crude oil stocks are at their 20 year highs for developed countries. Front month, July Crude Oil contract closed down $1.80, at $68.56 a barrel. Overnight night crude trading only saw a high of $68.98 last night.

Lean Hogs: As meat packers bid on tight supplies, traders bought back previously sold positions in Lean Hogs yesterday. June Lean Hogs closed up 1.57 cents, at 75.10 cents a pound.

Metals: Metals prices across the board dropped yesterday on selling pressure brought on by multi-decade highs hit earlier this spring, in turn affecting most of the commodities markets. Metals prices will continue to drop as global investors downgrade their expectations on global growth in response to recent interest hikes both in Europe and the U.S. Front month June Gold was down $44.30, closing at $562.50 an ounce. August Gold lost $44.50 to close at $566.80 an ounce. Front month July Silver dropped 37%, closing at $9.625 and July Copper fell 25.5%, closing at $3.0105 per pound

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Massive metal meltdown!

Massive metal meltdown! It was a dark day for precious metals bulls, as large speculative liquidation pummelled the entire complex. Gold futures posted its largest one-day loss of the recent move, Silver dropped nearly $1.50, Platinum lost over $50, and Palladium nearly $40. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar remained firm for the 7th straight day on the back of inflation fears, which imply more rate support by the Fed. It was the rise in core PPI (.3% for May) that gave Dollar bulls increased confidence that one, if not two or more, rate rises were in the cards for the Dollar. A big sell-off in metals was also helpful, as fund assets moved into Dollar-denominated assets. The big number for tomorrow will be the core CPI, which is estimated to have rose to .2% in May. A figure higher than .2% has the potential to spark a Dollar rally, as rate expectations continue to take shape.

EUR/USD: Just Above Support

The main theme for today will be inflation and the related topic of rate expectations. Although most agree that the Fed will be raising rates later this month, what about August? Producer prices for May were up a tame .2%, but the more significant core rate was up .3%. Read More...

Fed Still On Course To Raise Interest Rates

Fed still on course to raise interest rates: Traders were eagerly awaiting this morning's data on producer prices and retail sales for further confirmation on the Fed's next move for interest rates. The results were mixed. The producer price index for May rose 0.2%, while the "core" producer price index(excluding food and energy) rose 0.3%. Average analyst estimates were for a increase of 0.4% on the headline number and 0.2% on the core figure. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Crude Oil: Concerns that Tropical Depression Alberto would turn into a Storm or Hurricane lifted prices last Friday in oil as speculators panicked. Most of those gains from last week were washed away on Monday as Tropical Storm Alberto missed any oil and gas production platforms and as Energy companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico said the storm had no impact on production. July Crude closed at $70.36 a barrel, down $1.27.

Grains: Most of the grains, including corn and soybean futures experienced a rise in prices yesterday on forecasts of hot and dry conditions in the grain growing regions of the Midwest over the next couple of weeks. Front month, July, corn rose 5.5 cents to close at $2.475 per bushel and December corn, which represents fall harvest, rose 5.75 cents, closing at $2.735. July Soybeans rose 14.25 cents to close at $6 a bushel and November soybeans, which represents the next crop, rose 13.5 cents, closing at $6.29

Lumber: Hurricane warnings resulted in rising prices in lumber yesterday, imposing the daily price limit. Front month July gained $10 to close at $306.80 per 1,000 board feet.

Monday, June 12, 2006

Sugar Tests Recent Lows

Sugar tests recent lows: It was another lower close for Sugar futures today as local and fund selling overpowered trade buying: Lower energy and metals prices contributed to today's weakness. Commodity funds continue to roll out of long July positions into October ahead of last trading day on June 30th. Solid scale-down buying by trade houses kept the market from breaking below the recent lows at 14.86. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

Trading in FX markets was subdued today, with the exception of the Canadian Dollar, which breached the 1.10 mark against the U.S. Dollar. Tomorrow the PPI, specifically the core PPI, is likely to be the main event. The Dollar may well draw strength from a high core number, as expectation for Fed rate hike in August would enter the market's psychology. The related consumer figure is due on Wednesday. The June Dollar index closed-up 11 ticks.

USD/CAD: At The Low-End Of The Range

The Dollar has started the week strong in overnight trading in Asia and Europe, building on its confident posture of the previous week. The main theme remains interest rate expectations, though last week reminded us once again of the worrisome trade deficit. The corresponding capital inflow data from the Treasury department is due on Thursday and will either increase the "twin deficit" concern, or brush it aside until next month. It is hoped that the figure will cover April trade deficit of $63.4b. Read More....

Consolidation Ahead For Lumber?

Consolidation ahead for Lumber? Bears have been in control of the Lumber futures market since the start of May, as traders fear the tightening campaign by the Federal Reserve will continue to cool down the U.S. housing market. Since May 1st, July Lumber has fallen over $60 per 1000 board feet, as housing starts continue to fall. The torrid selling has slowed down the last few trading sessions, leading some traders to believe a short-term bottom may be in place. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Grains: India's June to September monsoon season is critical for summer planting of rice, oilseeds, coarse cereals, sugar cane and cotton. India's weak rainfall have forced some farmers in India to hold off sowing crops in groundnut, soybean, and rice. Although, monsoon season arrived ahead of schedule and did produce 68% above normal rainfall, it has weakened. The India Meteorological Department has said there is nothing unusual about this weakening. India's overall food-grain production has fluctuated between 174 million and 213 million tons in the past decade depending on their monsoon season.

Friday, June 09, 2006

Bullish USDA Report Sends Wheat Lower?

Bullish USDA report sends Wheat lower? It was a case where everyone was anticipating a bullish production report, and when it came, speculators booked profits, forcing prices lower on the day. Chicago Wheat led the decline posting double-digit losses in the July and December contracts. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

FX trading was restrained today, although the Dollar was able to maintain its strong weekly gains. The main data release was the April trade deficit, which was higher than the previous month at $63.4b, though it was less expected. The 2nd half of the equation, next weeks's TIC data, will determine whether overseas capital flows were enough to cover the shortfall. The other key numbers for next week are the core CPI and PPI, which should confirm the market's view that rates are going higher in June. The figures will also set the stage for the handicapping of August's rate decision.

The Key Theme Today Is Rising Rates

The Dollar is building on its recently improved sentiment heading into the final session of the week. The U. S. trade deficit for April was reported at $63.4 billion, less then many predictions. Although the emphasis in the Dollar seems to have switched to interest rates, the burdensome issue of "dual deficits" remains. The corresponding TIC or capital inflow data is due next week on the 15 th . Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Metals: Due to seasonal dips in the summertime as well as metals being overbought relative to demand earlier this year, metals were down yesterday. Copper and Gold have fallen almost 15% since May 11th. June Gold fell 2%, to close at $609.10. Silver finished the day at $11.042 a troy ounce, down 6.9%, and June Copper dropped 6.2%, closing at $3.4520 a pound.

Hawkish" Comments Send Bonds Higher

"Hawkish" comments send Bonds higher: 30-year Bond Futures closed higher yesterday, reaching highs not seen since mid-April, as traders are becoming increasingly certain the Federal Reserve will raise rates at their June 28th meeting. Fed policy makers have been speaking out about their concerns on recent inflation data, sparking ideas that a rate increase in June is a certainly. Read More....

Thursday, June 08, 2006

FX Closing Comments

After holding its own over the past 3 sessions, the Dollar took a nice leap this morning, as the result of a number of financial and non-financial events. Dollar sentiment was jolted during the European session when news of the death of wanted terrorist Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi hit the wires. Later in day the ECB confirmed that was raising rates by the expected 25 basis points. While an upwards move in rates would be supportive for the Euro, the market had priced in a rate hike many weeks earlier. There had also been an outside concern they might move 50 pts. When they didn't raise 50 pts, there was no reason to stop the upward "euphoria" move in the Dollar, resulting from Zarqawi's demise. One additional bit of good news, which was also Dollar supportive, was the weekly jobless numbers that fell a surprising 35,000 in the prior week. As such, it looks like an increasingly safe bet that the Fed will be raising another quarter percent at the end of the month. Aside from today's theatrics, it is this perception of continued rate support that is currently supporting the Dollar. The June Dollar Index opened at 84.89, reached a high of 85.98 and closed the session at 85.89, an even 100 points higher.

Join Us At 1PM CDT For Platform Walkthrough

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

FX Markets Jumping This Morning On News of Capture of Terrorist

FX markets are jumping this morning on news of the capture of wanted terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The "euphoria" reaction has prompted a nice bull run in the Dollar. The Dollar's drive is drawing additional support from the ECB, which decided to raise the repo rate by 25bps, and not shock the market with the 50bp move. Read More....

Energy Bear Market?

Energy bear market? This is a statement you might not expect to hear giving record high Gasoline and Oil prices, but one segment of the energy complex has bucked the bull trend--Natural Gas! July Natural Gas fell to lows not seen since January of 2005 as ample supplies continue to weigh on prices. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Copper: Copper futures ended the day higher, after a test of key support drew buying interest. Grupo Mexico SA announced a force majeure on Copper deliveries due to an ongoing strike at its Cananea Copper mine. July Copper closed at $3.5840/pound, up 9.45 cents

Lean Hogs: Strong cash Hog prices combined with higher pork cutout prices sent Lean Hog futures sharply higher. June Lean Hogs closed at $71.42, up $1.12

Energies: It was a down day across the energy complex yesterday, as rising petroleum inventories and hopes for a potential deal with Iran over its nuclear program sent prices sharply lower. July Crude Oil closed at 70.82, down 1.68 and July Unleaded Gasoline closed at 2.1240, down 0.0548.

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Cocoa Holds Major Support

Cocoa holds major support: Bucking the sell-off in precious metals and energy futures, July Cocoa finished the day higher, as a test of major support was met with buying interest. Traders were looking for a lower opening this morning, after yesterday's decline left the market precariously close to key support at 1455. However, buyers emerged from the opening, pushing prices higher. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

FX pairs kept to tight ranges today, though the Dollar kept the upper-hand. The Dollar Index closed-up 27 ticks, as analysts await the verdict from the Bank of England and ECB tomorrow. There remains an outside chance that the ECB will move 50bp, which would likely send a shock through fx markets. As is usually the case, it is the press conference that will be most telling. The key word to watch for is "vigilance." or "continued vigilance". Also on tap for tomorrow is the Halifax survey on UK housing prices and UK industrial and manufacturing activity.

Join Us Today At 12:00 PM CDT For Our Platform Walkthrough

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

USD/CHF: Month-Long Range

The Dollar continues to hold its own based largely on the feeling that additional rate support will be forthcoming from the Fed. Recent days have provided the Dollar with a substantial amount of "rhetorical support" from Fed members, most significantly from Chairman Bernanke. As a result, Fed fund futures are now strongly leaning towards another upward rate move at the end of the month. Read More....

Fundamentals Be Damned!

Copper consolidating: Fundamentals be damned! That is what Copper traders are hearing, as prices are well off recent highs and may be entering a consolidation phase. July Copper has fallen over 60 cents in the last four weeks, in spite of bullish fundamentals. The market has ignored the news that Grupo Mexico has declared force majeure on its Copper deliveries, due to strikes at its mines, and expects its Copper output to drop sharply in 2006. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Gold: Gold falls on remarks by Fed Chairman Ben Bernake relating to the potential of further interest rate hikes in response to inflationary concerns. Optimistic reaction to the US backed EU proposal to Iran triggered further selling in the yellow metal. August Gold is trading at $625.20, down $9.50 this morning.


Copper: Copper prices were affected by the Fed's hawkish commentary, trading lower for the session. July Copper is trading at 3.44, dwon 4.95 cents this morning.


Crude Oil: Crude Oil gave back earlier gains on positive remarks out of Iran, following the proposed incentives presented by the UN. The US government had previously warned of possible supply disruptions, due to the Hurricane season that is upon us. July Crude is trading at $71.20, down $1.30 for the session.

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

Coffee Futures Fail To Warm Up Bulls

Coffee futures fail to warm up bulls: The start of the frost season in Brazil has been kind to the Coffee groves but not to Coffee bulls, as prices hit eight-month lows. Commodity funds and local traders were the featured sellers this morning, triggering stops below the recent lows at 97.10. Overall weakness in the commodity markets were a factor in today's sell-off with large losses in precious metals and grains weighing on Coffee. Read More....

Fed Chairman's Comments Tarnish Silver

Fed Chairman's comments tarnish Silver: Silver futures are weak this morning, trading near two-month lows, as "hawkish" comments on inflation from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke yesterday have traders looking for further interest rate increases from the Fed. In a speech at the American Banker's International Monetary Conference, Chairman Bernanke gave little doubt that the Fed would not "pause" in raising the Fed Funds rate at its next meeting on June 28th. This news sent the US Dollar sharply higher and sent precious metals lower, including Silver. Read More....

EUR/AUD: New High Today

The Dollar began the week suffering from weak sentiment and spent early Monday under the command of the bears. At one point, the Euro reached a new yearly high against the U.S. Dollar at 1.2976. Matters were reversed, however, when comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hit the wires. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Crude Oil: Crude Oil futures jumped up yesterday, on the threatening words of Iran's Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who declared energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would be seriously jeopardized if the U.S. and its allies try to punish Iran for its nuclear activities. It appears the market got nervous, but the words could not sustain the rally. July Crude is trading at 72.22, down 38 cents this morning.

Corn: Corn prices fell, as forecasts of better precipitation for developing crops in the Midwest were released to today. July Corn closed at 251.75, down another 1.75 in overnight trading. December Corn, representing the fall harvest, closed at 277.25, down another 1.50 on the eCBOT.

Coffee: Coffee futures fell yesterday, as bulls in the market had anticipate a frost to do some damage to some of Brazil's coffee-growing regions over the weekend. The area escaped unharmed, pushing the market lower. July Coffee closed at 98.45, down 2.8 cents for the session.

Monday, June 05, 2006

Volatility Controlling Copper Futures

Volatility controlling Copper futures: It was a roller coaster session for Copper futures this morning, as bulls and bears fought for control of the red metal. Prices initially traded higher on spill-over strength from London and higher Gold and Energy prices. Then just over an hour into the New York session, commodity funds and bearish speculators started sending in sell orders into a thin market, causing prices to fall sharply. Read More....

The CHF/JPY: Approaching Highs

The Dollar is entering the new week under pressure, following on Friday's soft jobs report. Some confrontational rhetoric with Iran over the weekend is not helping matters, and has boosted crude futures in electronic trading. This week the ECB will be meeting on Thursday and is widely expected to raise rates, possibly by 50 basis points, in response to growth in industrial sectors. The Bank of England's MPC is also meeting this week, although no change is expected. In terms of U.S. data, the April trade deficit is due for release on Friday. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Palladium: Palladium has gained popularity in China and looks to be finding a market in the US. While sales are still small compared to the other white metals, Palladium's price, purity and color make it an attractive alternative to the higher priced Platinum. August Palladium is trading at $364.00, up $5.64 this morning.

Copper: Copper is falling, as labor disputes become resolved and supplies look to be capable of keeping up with growing global demand. As a rest, the metals are trading higher and Copper is the lone loser at this time. August Copper is trading at $3.55, down 1.95 cents this morning.

Lean Hog: Lean Hog positions as of May 30, show non-commercial spreads are at 47,056 contracts, as they prepare for the Goldman roll that will officially begin on June 7 and end June 14. The roll consists of non-commercial traders "rolling" some of their July long positions into the August contract, in association with the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. July Lean Hogs closed Friday's session at 68.90, while August is trading at 67.55.

Will Crude Oil Make A Run At New All-Time Highs?

Will Crude Oil make a run at new all-time highs? Lead-month July Crude Oil posted gains of nearly $2 on Friday, on continued concerns of supply disruptions from Iran and Nigeria. Now the spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that Oil shipments from the Gulf would be disrupted if Iran is attacked by the U.S. or other western countries over its development of a nuclear program. This is the first time the Ayatollah has mentioned supply disruptions, and the market reacted by bidding-up prices in Asia and London. Read More....

Friday, June 02, 2006

Is A Rally Brewing In Coffee?

Is a rally brewing in Coffee? Coffer futures posted solid gains this morning, with the July contract posting nearly 3-week highs on speculative short covering. Weak bears were reluctant to go home short going into the weekend, with the start of the Brazilian frost season now upon us. July opened higher this morning, taking is queue from stronger trade in London. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

After today's NFP, which came in soft at 75,000, the Dollar fell roughly 100 ticks against the Euro. The Dollar fell similarly against the other majors, as the Dollar index closed down 74 on the day. Although the unemployment rate slipped to 4.6%, there was a downward revision to the last months NFP that implied to many analysts and traders that the Fed would be more likely to pause in June. The prospect of the Dollar losing its rate support precipitated today's price action. The next major release will be May's core CPI figure, due latter in the month. A soft inflation picture might tilt the balance in favor of the "pause camp" and keep rates unchanged at 5%.

Markets To Watch Today

Copper: Copper fell hard in yesterday's session, as a limit move halted trading. Volatility still rules the metals as the contract is now up nearly the amount given back yesterday. July Copper is trading at 3.5950. up 12.4 cents this morning.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil is following the same pattern, as losses in yesterday's trading are being recouped this morning. Agreement between UN members on a package to be presented to Iran was credited for yesterday's decline. July Crude Oil is trading at $71.90, up $1.56 this morning.

Gold: Gold is not absent from the above trend. After trading lower on comments released by the Federal Reserve hinted at a continued increase in interest rates. June Gold is trading at $635.00, up $7.40 this morning.

EUR/USD: Keeping Sideways?

The FX markets had that "calm before the storm" feel yesterday, as traders looked ahead to today's non-farm payrolls number. The number for May was roughly half the consensus estimate at 75,000. There was also a downward revision to April's figures from 138,000 to 126,000. Read More...

Lackluster Jobs Report Sends Bond Prices Higher

Lackluster jobs report sends Bond prices higher: Once again economists and analysts were off the mark in trying to predict May's non-farm payrolls number. The Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls grew by 75,000 in May. This figure was well below average estimates of between 150,000 and 180,000 jobs created. Read More....

Thursday, June 01, 2006

Losing Their Luster?

Losing their Luster?: Copper plunged today, making a limit down move early in the session, with little buying support found to close out the day. The metal markets have been driven by speculation rather than fundamentals over the past couple of months and volatility in these markets has forced the exchanges to raise margin requirements multiple times. Over the past two years, copper has more than doubled to its highest price ever, and gold has jumped to a 26 year high, while stocks and bonds have remained stagnant. This rally in the metals has contributed to rising global demand and brought many willing investors into the commodities markets. Some news contributing to a less bullish outlook came in the form of successful negotiations between workforce and management at both Inco Ltd., which inked a 3-year deal and Alcoa Inc., which ratified a new 4-year contract. Gold fell on concern that rising interest rates will ignite a boost in the value of the dollar and reduce the precious metal's appeal as an alternative investment to U.S. stocks and bonds. July Copper closed at 3.4710, down 15.4 cents for the session. Scott Snyder XPRESSTRADE analyst

FX market update by Mark Smyth XPRESSTRADE analyst: The FX markets had that "calm before the storm" feel today, as traders looked ahead to tomorrow's non-farm payroll number. Most expectations center around a figure of 150,000 for May. As this is arguably the most important monthly figure, the figure is considered to carry more weight than normal this time, given the current undecided and "data dependent" mood at the FOMC. Although the fed funds futures market is leaning towards another .25% move in June, a particularly strong or weak number tomorrow could easily skew the equation. After June's NFP, the next major figure will be May's core consumer price figure, which is due on June 14th.

The Australian Dollar was the biggest mover today among the majors in a relatively calm session. In the spot market overnight, the Aussie fell under technical trading pressure and dipped below the 200-day moving average; a directional move which was not countered at the U.S. open. The lack of recovery in the June futures contract had analysts looking for possible explanations. One reason put forward for the Aussie's sluggishness today is the slightly elevated sense that the U.S. Fed will raise rates again in June, which would provide the greenback with additional yield support. Others site a soft metals market today, which is often strongly correlated with the Australian Dollar. These factors, along with some technical trading in the spot market, combined to pressure the Aussie during the U.S. session. The June futures contract gapped down 68 ticks to open at .7450, reaching a low of .7436, before closing the day at .7471.

FX Closing Comments

The FX markets had that "calm before the storm" feel today, as traders looked ahead to tomorrow's non-farm payroll number. Most expectations center around a figure of 150,000 for May. As this is arguably the most important monthly figure, the figure is considered to carry more weight than normal this time, given the current undecided and "data dependent" mood at the FOMC. Although the fed funds futures market is leaning towards another .25% move in June, a particularly strong or weak number tomorrow could easily skew the equation. After June's NFP, the next major figure will be May's core consumer price figure, which is due on June 14th.

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USD/JPY: Pushing Past Short-Term Resistance

The key FX report this week was yesterday's Fed minutes, which pave the way for an increased bout of drama ahead of the June meeting. The report stated that "inflation pressures appeared to be somewhat greater than the Committee had anticipated at the time of its March meeting." (FT) The minutes also provided other clues that highlighted the Committee's uncertainty about their next move. Read More....

Volatility Continues To Control Stock Index Futures

Volatility continues to control Stock Index futures: Investors were happy to see the fifth month of the year end, after the S&P 500 had its worst month of May in 22 years. Concerns over rising inflation and uncertainty over the direction of interest rates had stock investors reeling. All this fear has increased the volatility in Stock Index futures. The CBOE volatility index or VIX has jumped in the last couple of weeks, as nervous investors pay-up for protection in stock index options. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Crude Oil: Crude Oil fell yesterday on encouraging words from the US Government aimed toward a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear ambitions. No official response has been received out of Iran. July Crude Oil is trading at $70.32, down 97 cents this morning.


Copper: Copper fell yesterday, as month-end long liquidations paired with a general weakness in the metals. The sell-off continued this morning, triggering sell stops and forcing a stoppage in trade, as the limit once again has been reached. July Copper is trading at 3.4240, limit down 20 cents this morning.


CBOT: The CBOT has announced an increase in fees for trade clearing and other specific transactions, to become effective July 1st. The announcement comes as the exchange prepares to introduce side-by-side electronic trading in the grains. The penny increase makes the clearing fee for all contracts 6 cents.