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Monday, April 30, 2007

What Goes Up Must Come Down

The Dow Jones struck a new intraday high on Monday, only to succumb to a late-session fallout that left the major U.S. indexes in negative territory. The selling was attributed to profit taking on the last trading day of April, which has historically been the Dow's best month. Read More....

King Cotton gets another black eye

July Cotton lost 74 ticks to settle at 49.26 cents per pound, off a trading range of 50.40 to 49.25, high to low. There seems to be little to keep bulls happy in Cotton, as the fundamental picture looks bleak. Supply continues to grow while demand from China remains tepid, as the USDA export projections are not in any way reflective of the reality in the marketplace. Read More....

You can’t keep a good market down!

The bulls keep pushing the envelope with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Despite the somewhat unfavorable economic data released last week, the market chose to focus upon the positive corporate earnings news to push the Dow to new highs for the year. Read More....

Tame Inflation Data Sparks Treasury Bulls

Bonds – Bonds are trading 13 ticks higher this morning on Core PCE Inflation data showing 0 percent inflation. Forecasters were looking for a rise of 0.1 percent, following a 0.3 percent reading in February. In addition to the tame inflation data, economists at several large investment banks – including Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch – have disagreed with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s assessment that interest rates will have to be raised to keep inflation in check. Read More....

German Spending? Nein.

The big news out of the Euro-zone this morning is disappointing German Retail Sales figures that came in with a -0.7% decline versus 0.9% forecasted rise. German consumers have been hesitant to spend with the expected near 30% increase of VAT taxes instituted at the start of this year. Read More.....

Friday, April 27, 2007

Stocks Flop Before Open on Weak GDP Data

S&P – Stock index futures come into the morning weak, following the softest GDP reading since 2003. The Q1 GDP showed a disappointing rise of 1.3 percent, missing estimates of 1.8 percent. Some analysts are bound to try to put a positive spin on the bad data, noting the role that extreme weather played in keeping consumers in their homes instead of in checkout lines. Read More....

Bank of Japan stands firm

Economic news out of the bank of Japan this morning shows Governor Fukui is continuing his neutral monetary stand. This decision comes on the heels of Japanese CPI and household spending data that for the most part disappointed. Read More....

The worst of all worlds!

Stock index traders did not take kindly to this morning's 1st quarter US GDP report, which showed that the US economy grew at an anemic seasonally-adjusted 1.3% the past quarter – well below the 2.5% growth rate in the 4th quarter of last year and the slowest growth rate in 4 years. Read More.....

Today's Apple Kept the Bears Away

While today's action was relatively slow, the world's major indexes finished mostly on the positive side yet again. Positive earnings from the likes of Apple and 3M kept profit-takers at bay, but were not enough to spark a continuation of yesterday's efforts. Read More....

Bulls fail to pick a bottom in Cotton!

Bears remain in firm control of the Cotton futures market, as fund selling and long liquidation via sell-stops allowed the market to plunge to new contract lows this morning. Prices started out the session steady to slightly weaker after weekly Cotton export sales came in at 530,000 running bales – well within the pre-report estimates. Read More.....

Thursday, April 26, 2007

USA! USA! USA!

The US Dollar finally got a bit of relief from the other majors today after yesterday’s record-breaking highs. The EUR/USD slid back to hover near the 1.3600 level after hitting the 1.3664 less than 24 hours ago. Across the pond, the Pound lost a bit of momentum and fell 140 points to its current 1.9911 level. Part of the reason for this correction is this Friday’s GDP report, which is expected to print at 1.5% for the first quarter and has many traders squaring their positions ahead of time. Gross Domestic Product is the broadest measure of economic activity and a large forex mover. Annualized quarterly percent changes in GDP reflect the growth rate of total economic output and the figures can be quite volatile from quarter to quarter – inventory and net export swings in particular can produce significant volatility in GDP. The final sales figure, which excludes inventories, can sometimes be helpful in identifying underlying growth trends as inventories represent unsold goods, and a large inventory increase will boost GDP but might be indicative of weakness rather than strength. Additional indicators out of the US include the Employment Cost Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. With such a large amount of economic data hitting the market, expect to see large swings and a decent amount of movement. Finishing out the majors, the AUD/USD declined to .8261 and the NZD/USD hit a .7386 – its lowest level in about a week.

Dow 13,000

Dow – The cash Dow Jones Industrials closed above the 13,000 mark for the first time on the strength of positive corporate earnings and a rise in new home sales. New home sales rose to 858,000 – in the mid-range of most forecasts – to show a modest gain over February, but were down over 23 percent from March of last year. Read More....

Euro Hits All-Time High

The Euro briefly touched an all-time high last night before quickly retreating to more comfortable levels. With no major indicators in the overnight market, technical traders took the opportunity to run the pair to a record-breaking top. Read More....

Calm before the storm (season)?

Natural Gas futures have been noticeably quiet in 2007, especially given the run-up in the Oil sector this year. Ample supplies in storage – currently standing at 1.546 tcf – are the main culprit in the lackluster trading action. However, cash Natural Gas prices are starting to firm up, as energy companies turn to Natural Gas to operate their power plants while seasonal maintenance takes place on their nuclear facilities. Read More....

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Good News and Bad News…

News coming out of the US was better than expected, but it did little to help the Dollar out of its slump. Strong indicators came in a one-two punch, with Durable Goods Orders posting 3.4 versus the expected 2.8, and New Home Sales posting relatively in line with expectations. The Durable Orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods. Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report despite the volatility and large revisions that make it an imperfect indicator. These problems can be minimized by looking at the breakdown of orders. The total number is often skewed by huge increases in aircraft and defense orders, and today’s number might have been disregarded because of a major sale from Boeing Manufacturing. On the homes front, the New Home Sales figure indicates the level of new privately-owned one-family houses sold and for sale. New home sales usually have a lagged reaction to changing mortgage rates. They also tend to be stronger early in the business cycle when existing demand is strong, and they fade later in the cycle as the demand for housing is more balanced. In addition to home sales, the market monitors the number of homes for sale relative to the current sales pace. As this inventory measure falls or rises, housing starts tend to work in conjunction. In other notable news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above its benchmark 13,000 level to add a boost to US-based securities. This did nothing to help the Dollar’s price, but it is a significant milestone for securities dealers. As we move into the Asian sessions, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3635, the GBP/USD is still above 2.0000 at 2.0011, and the USD/JPY is clinging to the 118.17 level. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Rain in the Plains Gives Grain Bulls Gains!

Grain futures posted impressive gains this afternoon, with Wheat and Corn futures leading the charge higher. At their peak, May through December 2007 Wheat contracts were up the 30-cent limit on fresh speculative buying tied to dry growing conditions in Europe and Australia, freeze damage to the US winter Wheat crop, and tight world Wheat stocks. Read More.....

Crude Higher Ahead of Data

Crude Oil – June Crude Oil gave up much of Monday’s gains, falling by $1.31 on short-term profit taking and squaring up of positions ahead of this morning’s inventory data. The EIA report is expected to show a decline of 1.2 million barrels of Crude Oil, but the report has been somewhat difficult to make sense of recently. Read More....

Pain at the pump!

US motorists should be prepared to empty their wallets at the gas pumps this summer, as continued strong Gasoline demand and a steady stream of refinery outages have bulls in the driver's seat. Even yesterday, when Crude Oil prices fell over $1 per barrel, Gasoline futures were barely in the red column. Read More....

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

House Prices Fall to a 3-Year Low

Existing Home Sales reached a three-year low in March after showing four gains over the last five months. The weak sales left a 7.3 month supply of inventory, and a 7.4 month average time on the market, just below the cyclical high level from October. Lower mortgage rates and prices help improve affordability and demand, as median prices have risen in three of the last four months to leave an annual decline of just -0.3%. Existing sales include condos and co-ops which make up about 1/8 of the total. The National Association of Realtors expects existing home sales to bottom out in the second quarter. The subsequent rise should be very modest if any gains are made at all. While housing data clearly stole the show for US Dollar traders, there was more to worry about. The second major release was the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment survey for April. This print depressed expectations that domestic spending would make up for any shortfall in the housing or manufacturing sectors. The reading came back at a 104.0 print, which was a bigger dip than the market’s expectations. Higher gasoline prices and a rise in mortgage defaults are starting to expose the possible weak link in confidence that the US economy will shift towards a bullish Dollar in the near future. In price action, the EUR/USD is near the high of 1.3632 and the GBP/USD is near 2.0013. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Numbers Day!

The majors are in for a bit of a storm of worldwide economic releases today, from both the European and US sides. First off was the Euro-zone. New Industrial Orders, which fell by -0.7% versus expectations of an increase of 1.0%. Read More....

Equities, Treasuries Eye Housing Data

S&P – Stocks closed lower, marking the first decline in eight trading days. The losses were modest considering the sharp rally in the energy markets and the extremely overbought reading. This morning’s existing home sales number looms large, with traders wanting some sort of follow-through from the previous release, which surprised many market observers. Read More.....

Can bulls break through the 112 barrier?

The Treasury Bond market has been in a moderate uptrend of late, with short-covering buying by weak bears leading to a nearly 2-point climb over the past 2 weeks. Today's economic data might be the catalyst to finally move June Bonds through stubborn resistance at 112-00. Read More....

Monday, April 23, 2007

Bulls Can't Perk Up Coffee Prices!

Not even a bullish crop estimate could stimulate Coffee prices, as July Coffee hits 9-month lows. On Friday, Brazil's Conab estimated the 2007/08 Coffee crop at 32.1 million bags, sharply lower than trade estimates of 34 million bag crop. Read More.....

Calm before the storm?

This week started out with a bit of technical movement, as the US Dollar broke through mental support areas and made small gains after last week’s losses. Fundamentally the calendar was light, but fundies are waiting for Tuesday’s US releases of the Consumer Confidence Report, Existing and New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders. The overall mood of the markets is ripe for a change – or at least movement – and today might have been the calm before the storm. The EUR/USD dropped 90 points to a low of 1.3540 before recovering to its current 1.3570 level throughout the rest of the day. The Dollar bulls posted strong against the low-yielding currencies in the early morning hours. From 1.2055 lows in the Asian session, the USD/CHF rallied 80 points before pulling back to a rising trendline recently seen around 1.2080. Quite the opposite in the USD/JPY pair, which dropped from solid 119 resistance to 118.25 on second-rate news, then rebounded right back to the upper resistance levels. Finally, GBP/USD – which had a stellar showing last week – is holding a broad congestion range centered on 2.0, waiting for any key news event from either side of the Atlantic before its next directional decision. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

A Choppy Week Ahead

Dow – Stocks come into this morning’s trading flat after rallying to new contract highs on Friday. Stronger-than-expected construction and inflation data, along with strong corporate earnings, provided a boost to the markets. Read More.....

$700 here we come?

That is the question plaguing Gold traders of late, as the yellow metal struggles to move beyond this important price level. Spurred by new ETF introductions, sharply higher Platinum and Palladium prices have given support to Gold prices, as investors have embraced precious metals as an alternative investment option. Read More.....

The Land Down Under…and Declining

The Australian Dollar came under pressure this morning from an uninspiring PPI report. National figures posted much more softly than expected at 0.0% versus the forecasted 0.6%. The currency market will wait until tomorrow’s CPI release to fully gauge inflationary pressures in the Australian economy, but today’s producer data coupled with this past Friday’s news on soft import prices appears to indicate that price increases may be moderating, allowing the Reserve Bank of Australia to remain neutral for the near term. In price action, the AUD/USD has fallen 50 pips from last night’s highs and is currently trading at .8325. Read More....

Friday, April 20, 2007

Gold Rallies on Greenback Woes, Crude Jump

Gold – June Gold futures are trading $9 higher this morning on a weaker US Dollar and strong Crude Oil prices. The Dollar fell on comments by a German official stating that he was comfortable with a stronger Euro, which sparked buying in the Gold market. Read More....

Are We Coming to a Peak?

While the world has been beating up on the US Dollar, yesterday’s markets seemed to slow down a bit. However, the Euro did fly to a high of 1.3636 in overnight trading from a bit of fundamental data. French Consumer Spending data printed a positive 0.7% verses an expected 0.3%, and this suggests that French expansion in sales is continuing at a healthy pace with better economic growth and improving employment. Read More....

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Copper Corrects on Higher Production, Worker Negotiations

Copper – Copper futures are down for the second consecutive day on a report showing global production outpacing demand. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, world Copper production outpaced demand by 115,000 metric tons. Read More.....

Not to Beat a Dead Horse, but…

The slump in the US Dollar has continued to dominate headlines as the Greenback hit a 26-year low against the British Pound. The rally against the Dollar seems open to all takers, with the New Zealand Dollar pushing to a 24-year record and the Euro hitting a recent two-year high and looking to make its own record if the trend continues. Read More.....

White Lightning!

That might be the new nickname for the Platinum market, as new contract highs were made this morning on word that ETF Securities, Ltd. will launch 5 commodity-based exchange traded funds on April 24, including a Platinum ETF. Read More....

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Leveling Off?

The US Dollar has been hit hard lately by currencies from around the globe, but today saw a bit of a leveling from the past three days of relentless beatings. While news is a bit light this week, it is interesting to note the huge discrepancy between the currency markets and the US-based stock market. The US dollar is pushing record lows – witness its 15-year nadir against the British Pound – while the Dow Jones Index is pursuing record highs. The overall different view between the two markets offers a possible explanation for this discrepancy. For the US-based stock market, inflation is viewed as low with a possible soft landing in sight, which might produce further gains. Meanwhile, the currency markets are pitted against the world economy, while the US economy is down and having a hard time fighting back. Which outlook will ultimately prevail is a tough call. Most likely, neither will fully win out, and a softening of both extremes might occur. Looking at price action in the majors, the EUR/USD is holding at 1.3589, the Japanese Yen is on a slight uptick for the first time in two days at 118.69, and the ever-popular GBP/USD duo is closing out the American session at 2.0066. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Crude Slumps Ahead of Inventory Data

Crude Oil – Crude Oil futures fell ahead of the weekly EIA inventory data, with traders expecting a build in stocks. A Bloomberg survey has analysts estimating a 650,000 barrel rise in inventories and an increase in refinery capacity utilization to 88.7 percent. Read More.....

Is the Top Near?

The Pound is once again leading headlines today, with overnight trading pushing 1.0131 against the US Dollar. Data out of the United Kingdom has continued to impress, with better-than-expected employment and wage data sparking speculation of a very near-term rate hike from the Bank of England. Read More.....

Oil's well in the energy markets?

The energy complex has been extremely volatile of late, as traders come to grips with refinery outages, pipeline leaks, and strong demand. Now it appears that some of these factors are beginning to show signs of potential resolution. Read More.....

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Newsday on Tuesday

Tuesday's trading was dominated by a bevy of economic and corporate news. Leading the headlines was CPI data out of the U.K. showing inflation rates at their highest mark in a decade at 3.1%, prompting a letter of explanation from the Bank of England. Read More.....

Dollar dives deep!

There’s really no other way to describe the financial beating the US Dollar is taking against the rest of the world than by saying “ouch.” The USD is down again, as today’s US economic releases failed to generate the same bullish sentiment surrounding economies like the United Kingdom and Australia. Technical traders were closely looking at the GBP/USD pair, which broke the psychological 2.0000 level for the first time in 15 years on a nearly 200-point rally from overnight lows. Dollar losses against the British Pound were fairly isolated to the individual pair, but weak data from the US quickly lead others to follow suit, most notably the EUR/USD, which pushed to 1.3593 before falling to range-trading near the current 1.3560 level. Most traders are wondering if these new highs can be held in the upcoming months. News out of the US was surprising bullish, with housing numbers beating expectations and supporting speculation that a bottom in the sector is in place after the biggest contractions in 15 years. Both housing starts and permits last month rose 0.8 percent to 1.518 million and 1.544 million, respectively. Finally, the USD/JPY pair was working with the same anti-Dollar momentum on a 119.90 high that has sufficiently cleared out a number of technical levels. Looking forward, we might expect to see good ranges and big moves.

XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Copper is red hot!

May Copper soared to its highest levels of the year, as speculative buying, buy-stops, and strong demand all underpinned prices. May Copper traded as high as 369.75, as a bullish new home construction figure and dwindling LME stocks gave traders another reason to buy. Read More.....

S&P Futures Rally to Contract Highs

S&P – June S&P futures rallied beyond prior contract highs to close at 1475.40. In addition to yesterday’s rally, stocks come in on a positive note, helped by stronger-than-expected housing and CPI data. Housing Starts, which were slated to show a decline, instead rose 0.8 percent, while housing permits also rose 0.8 percent. Read More.....

The Pound is Conquering the World

The Sterling broke through the 2.00 level in early morning trading, hitting a 14 ½ -year high on mounting inflationary pressure and the possibility of near-term interest rate increases. The last time the Pound enjoyed this rarefied air was September of 1992, just before it was ejected from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism on what is referred to as Black Wednesday. Read More....

The weather market begins!

The start of the volatile spring/summer grain markets began yesterday afternoon, as the USDA estimated that only 4% of the US Corn crop has been planted as of April 15th , while traders had been looking for between 5 and 7 percent planted. Read More.....

Monday, April 16, 2007

Monday's Markets..."Buy 'Em"

The week started off in strong fashion for bulls everywhere, as all three major global markets saw substantial gains to open the trading week on news and data from virtually every region today. The encouraging factor is that none of the three markets fully relied on overseas news or data to support their own rally efforts, although the corresponding strength definitely did not hurt. Read More.....

Weak Coffee?

Coffee closes in on yearly low. May Coffee lost 3.35 cents to settle at $1.0845, off a range of $1.1205 to $1.0830. The May contract opened near its high and sold off all day. Downside pressure on price stems from the larger than expected Brazilian crop, coupled with record shipments from Vietnam. Read More.....

FX Daily Wrap Up

The USD has finally started its climb against the Aussie today after hitting a 17-year low of 0.8357. Since Friday, the Aussie has declined only 35 points to the current 83.25 in a great short-term trending sweep. Also this weekend, the G7 meeting provided little new information to digest, maintaining a similar tone on the stance of currencies. Japan was not singled out over the weakness of the Yen, but the situation was alluded to in the statement “excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for economic growth.” Traders took this as reiteration of the current position of holding off on intervention unless market conditions warrant a change. The group also repeated its calls for China to quickly move toward a more flexible currency. Today in the majors, the EUR/USD is still trading over the 1.3500 mark and seems to be holding near the 1.3540 level. For the GBP/USD, 1.9890 seems to be the afternoon’s new short-term resistance. After crossing the mark early in the day, the GBP/USD has leveled off in light trading and appears to be content with this position. This week has started off with a bit of unexpected movement, which may continue throughout the week. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Corn Gets a Dead Cat Bounce

Corn – Corn gained over 10 cents on Friday, as specs drove the market higher on slower than expected planting progress. The cold, wet weather across the growing region has kept farmers away from the fields. This may be seen as a relief rally, with the USDA raising the expected world carryout for the crop year. Read More....

Dollar Still Down and the Pound Edges Higher

With last week’s Dollars decline, some traders were looking at the start of this week for a bit of enticement for the US-dominated pairs. Late last week, the EUR/USD hit a multi-year high when price action flew through the 1.3500 mark en route to the high of 1.3578. Read More.....

Bulls making some bread on wheat futures!

Wheat futures soared to 7-week highs to end the week, as concerns of a sharp drop in the crop rating for Winter Wheat in today’s USDA Crop Progress Report led to commodity fund buying. Estimates are for a 5 to 10 percent drop in the good to excellent rating due to the hard freeze suffered recently. Read More.....

Friday, April 13, 2007

FX Daily Wrap Up

As we close out the week, it appears that the majors will hold onto their gains from the sinking US Dollar. The Greenback was hammered lower throughout the week – most notably in the Asian and European sessions – as a technical break turned into a momentum move. Pushing above the 1.3500 level, Euro bulls did not hesitate to push into new territory and produce a new multi-year high of 1.3555. The weakened Dollar also endured a 130-point rally at the hands of the British Pound, with that pair topping out around 1.9890. The pullback in the GBP/USD was far more violent, though the pair wasn’t able to muster a close below 1.98. As we head into the weekend, the EUR/USD is closing at 1.3529 and the GBP/USD is near the 1.9865 level. Today’s calendar held the most market-moving reports for the entire week, and the news did little to stop the Dollar’s decline. The PPI report posted a 1.0% reading, which was higher than the .7% expected. In other price action, the NZD/USD finished out at .7378 and the AUS/USD was at .8329. Have a great weekend.

Dollar Decline Continues In a Big Way!

The US Dollar has been pounded from currencies all around the world this week. The two most notable are the Euro, which posted multi-year highs against the Dollar, followed closely by the British Pound, which is currently pushing 1.9900 against the Greenback. Read More....

Metals and Energies in Focus

Copper – Copper futures retreated yesterday on profit-taking, with front month May futures shedding 805 points. Technically overbought levels helped fuel the slide. May Copper is trading sharply higher, as Rio Tinto, one of the largest miners in the world, is the most recent company to have a production stall at one of their mines due to a labor dispute. Read More....

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Asia Down, U.S. Up, Europe Unchanged

The three major global markets covered the three possible outcomes on Thursday. Asia finished mostly lower on reaction to U.S. data released on Wednesday. Europe finished little changed with little noteworthy news to digest. The U.S. markets finished surprisingly strong in spite of disappointing retail sales data and major news releases on Friday. Read More.....

Cheap Beef?

Not really, but Live Cattle prices have fallen sharply so far this week. Follow-through selling by large speculators was the main driver this morning after the most-active June contract fell below the widely-watched 20-day moving average yesterday. Read More.....

OUCH!

The US Dollar fell to new lows yet again today, with a strong technical rally pushing the EUR/USD straight through resistance to a new top of 1.3508 in fast-moving trading. Even though many of the majors were up against significant levels of Dollar support, there was a lack of the fundamental data that typically instigates big moves and forces a breakout. This morning saw the simultaneous release of two news items, with the Import Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims seeming to offset each other with their big changes. However, a closer look revealed the mixed sentiment actually came from less-than-impressive results. First-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly jumped by 19,000 filings to 342,000. While this was the highest level in eight weeks, it doesn’t foreshadow a sharp drop in the April Non-Farm Payroll report. Friday’s PPI reports should provide some clue as to market direction if predictions are true that another strong rise in non-core prices will occur. In the majors, the EUR/USD is holding at a rather high 1.3482, the AUD/USD stands at .8284, and the USD/JPY is steady at 119.14.

A bit of relief for the Yen

The Yen has staged a bit of a comeback against the Euro and US Dollar this morning after yesterday’s declines. The UK Trade Balance once again printed a bigger deficit than predictions. This would have been news by itself, but the RICS house survey also registered a rise to 26% from 25% the month prior, beating consensus estimates of 22%. Read More.....

Bulls waking up to the smell of Coffee!

Coffee futures have been quiet of late, as the market continues to digest the large exports out of Vietnam and Brazil, which are keeping current supplies ample. Heading into winter in the southern hemisphere, however, many traders are expecting Coffee prices to start pricing a "weather risk premium" into the market, especially with production expected to be light due the cyclical nature of Coffee. Read More.....

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Not much ado about anything!

The markets were very hesitant in anticipation of the FOMC minutes release. Wednesday morning’s conservative price action across the majors was typical of pre-release news days. When 1:00 CDT finally hit, the minutes release pushed the Dollar into a bull position for a very short time period before momentum was lost and the Greenback fell back to current levels. Still holding onto its multi-year highs, the EUR/USD pair pulled back to trade in a 30-point range above 1.3415. Elsewhere, the Dollar made a 50-point advance against the Japanese Yen that stalled out after a failed attempt at overtaking resistance at 119.50. Last but not least, the GBP/USD advanced on preliminary reports suggesting the British government will waive taxes on repatriated funds for domestic firms’ foreign revenues. The Pound rallied 110 points against the Dollar to 1.9820 through the Asian session. With the closing of the very slow American session, traders are looking for any movement in the next few days.

Bears get all juiced up!

Orange Juice futures fell to 6-month lows this morning, as speculative liquidation overwhelmed the market. Floor sources noted sell-stops being triggered below 180.00 in the most-active May contract. The recent sell-off comes after the USDA lowered its estimate for the Florida Orange crop by 1.3 million 90-pound boxes on Tuesday. Read More.....

Too Little, Too Late?

That is the opinion of many energy traders to the expected rise of refinery rates last week. Current estimates are for US refineries to have operated at 87.6% of capacity, up 0.6% from the previous week, but well below the 5-year average rate of 89.6%. Read More.....

Consolidation takes hold of the majors

A bit of consolidation is taking hold of the US-based majors today, ahead of the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and March’s Treasury Budget scheduled for 1:00 PM CST. Last Friday’s release posted a better-than-expected print, but the news did little to sway traders to the US Dollar. Read More....

Copper Flies Toward Contract Highs

Copper – May Copper is trading sharply higher this morning on shrinking LME stocks, while China also reported that March imports of the metal increased 61 percent over the same period last year. Copper supply has severely lagged behind demand recently, despite a rise in prices of over 25 percent. Read More....

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Euro Dazzels

Euro – June futures continue to dazzle the most hardened skeptics, as the Euro huddles just below yearly highs of 1.3480 made on April 5th . Critics of US fiscal and monetary policies over the years have much to boast about of late. Read More.....

Something for both Bulls and Bears in today's USDA report!

After the exciting USDA prospective plantings report on March 30th, today's USDA supply/demand report may seem a bit lackluster, but there were still some surprises in today's estimates: Read More...

Euro Gains Despite Strong U.S. Numbers

The markets were treated to a bit of a rollercoaster ride last night, as the EUR/USD pair took off following the Easter holiday weekend. While most U.S.-based traders and managers were back to work on Monday, their European counterparts were still enjoying an extended weekend. Read More.....

Monday, April 09, 2007

Slow Start

Even with Friday’s better-than-expected Non-Farm payroll report, the markets have remained quiet in relatively light trading today. With little on the economic news horizon, it will be interesting to see if the bullish Dollar will be able to maintain its forward momentum. Lack of a clear direction has led to range-bound trading in the EUR/USD pair, with the upper limit near the 1.3380 level and the lower limit around 1.3340. In the USD/JYP pair, lackluster trading is also taking hold of the Asian crosses, with a current low at 119.17 and the high only 20 points away at 119.37. Finally, the GPB/USD has shown a distinct Dollar bias since liquidity returned in the Asian session. The gradual declines since the official open led the pound to a 60-point loss to 1.9605 twelve hours later. Most traders in the US returned from their extended holiday weekends, while those in Europe had another day off. The hole in liquidity was rather obvious, as most of the majors were held in check through the usual hours of volatility. Greenback traders were left to fully digest last week’s employment data and speculate on the few market-moving indicators set for release over the coming days. One might expect to see volume return to the currency markets on Tuesday in early morning trading. David Hilgeman, XPRESSTRADE Analyst

Full Steam Ahead!

That was the reaction from the few traders present on Friday, when the Labor Department announced that 180,000 new jobs were created in March. This was well above even the most optimistic pre-report estimates and came as a surprise to most traders. Read more....

Healthy Payrolls Give Stocks A Lift

S&P – S&P futures are higher overnight on stronger-than-expected employment data. The US economy added 180,000 new jobs for the month of March, surpassing analyst estimates of 130,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.4 percent, matching its lowest levels in five years. Read more....

A Good Print Stops the Rally

With last Friday’s release of the Non-Farm Payroll report on a holiday weekend, reactions to the better-than-expected print were mostly muted. The reading came back at 180,000 versus a 130,000 forecast, shocking many analysts. Read more....

Thursday, April 05, 2007

Un-Enjoyment for those who have to work on Good Friday

The typical three-day holiday weekend has been interrupted by a partial session on Friday for some of the world's traders. Due to the release of U.S. Unemployment Data, U.S. financial and equity markets will trade in abbreviated sessions tomorrow. Read More.....

Strong cash prices mooove Cattle higher!

Live Cattle futures ended the pre-holiday session higher, with the lead month April contract once again trading above the 100.00 level. The most-active June contract also saw renewed buying interest, especially as buy stops were hit on the opening as prices moved above the recent highs at 96.77. Read More.....

The Big Slowdown

With most major news on hold until Friday, the forex markets made some anticipatory moves today. The EUR/USD flew through the 1.3400 mark on its way to a two-year high of 1.3442. Other pairs followed suit, with the USD/CHF diving almost 100 points to 1.2125. Most of the western countries have rounded out their positions ahead of the holiday weekend, but many extreme swing trade lovers are continuing to look for opportunities in the thin market. Price action in US and European capital markets is significantly trailing off ahead of the global holidays, and the remaining diehard traders had only the US weekly jobless claims data with which to work. The Labor Department reported a rise in first-time filings for unemployment benefits by 11,000 to 321,000 through the final week of March, while rolling claims fell to a two-month low of 2.492 million. Together, these numbers added little to the standing consensus for tomorrow’s Non-farm payrolls. While a pick-up in initial claims is undesirable, the average for March was well below that of February. As we turn in for the day, the EUR/USD is holding at 1.3427 and the USD/JYP is pushing 118.67. Enjoy the weekend – see you on Monday.

David Hilgeman, XPRESSTRADE Analyst

Does anyone care about tomorrow's Non-farm payrolls report?

It’s a valid question, as the March report is released on the Good Friday holiday this year while markets around the world are closed. However, there will be a shortened session for Stock Index, Interest Rates, and Currency futures in the US due to the 7:30 AM report from the US Labor Department. Read More.....

Drivers Brace for Higher Prices at the Pump

RBOB Gasoline – May RBOB Gasoline climbed almost 9 cents on lower inventory data. Gasoline inventories dropped 5 million barrels, surpassing analyst estimates of a half million barrel decline. Much of the drop can be attributed to refinery maintenance and miscalculations in previous inventory data. Read More....

Gold plays nice

The overnight forex sessions have been very quiet ahead of the upcoming Easter weekend. One great point of interest is the standoff between Iran and the UK has ended peacefully, which has dropped Crude Oil prices further. Read More.....

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Corn Bulls Look for Relief

Corn – Corn continued its slide, with front-month May futures shedding 8 ½ cents. Higher-than-estimated ending stocks, along with the 90 million plus acres expected to be planted, now have many traders wondering if there will be a glut of Corn at the end of the crop year, as opposed to the shortage many were expecting a couple of weeks ago. Read More....

Aussies are still on top!

It was a fairly quiet night for the currency markets, with the notable exception of the Australian Dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia shocked most traders with its decision to keep rates steady at 6.25%, news that ruffled the feathers of many traders betting on an RBA rate hike. Read More......

Crude Happenings!

It may have been one of the quietest $1.30 declines one might ever see in the Oil market yesterday, as traders seemed to focus more on the surging US stock market than on the energy sector. Yesterday's sell-off was tied to a softening tone between Great Britain and Iran over the capture of 15 British sailors by Iranian forces. Read More.....

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Global Indicators Give Green Light

The global markets ended with solid gains, riding momentum from falling Crude Oil prices and an easing of tensions between Great Britain and Iran. Also providing a lift was positive home sales data out of the U.S., along with merger and acquisition news in Europe. Read More....

Can't keep the Nickel bull in its pen!

Talk of the historic bull market in Nickel coming to an end might be premature, as fresh fund buying tied to continued supply concerns has 3-month Nickel futures surpassing their all-time high of $48,500 per ton today. The latest supply concerns involve word from Western Australia's Jubilee Mines that production might fall by 500 metric tons this year, at a time when world Nickel stocks are already very tight. Read More.....

Whole bunch of nothing!

It was a very slow day in the majors today, with a bit of consolidation ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment reports, and the upcoming Easter Holiday weekend. As we get closer to this Sunday, trading traditionally becomes much thinner with an increased possibility of unpredictable volatility. Market-making indicators were in short supply this morning, as only the pending home sales report hit the wires by mid-day trade. While this report failed to move traders in any clear direction, one small piece of information was that the month of February did beat estimates by 0.7% – not enough to signal a rebound in housing, but a small ray of hope for Dollar bulls nonetheless. US car and truck sales have yet to hit the wire, but forecasts are just off the 12.8 million average pace in 2006. Buying incentives have provided a bouncy path for vehicle sales over the last few years to drive the monthly pace of domestic sales. High gasoline prices provide an advantage to fuel efficient imports and domestic autos, but SUV sales have not shown a strong decline in light of larger discounts and domestic preferences. Reduced discounting softened the pace of 2006 sales to a 12.8 million average pace from 13.4 million in 2005. With a 25% weight in retail sales, autos provide the monthly swing to consumer spending. As we head into the Asian trading session, the USD/JYP is holding at the high of 118.94 and the EUR/USD is sitting at 1.3329.

David Hilgeman, XPRESSTRADE Analyst

Copper Flies, Bonds Sink

Copper – Copper continues to fly high, with tight stocks expected to fall short of Chinese demand, which analysts are expecting to increase by roughly 10 percent for 2007. In addition to rising on its own merits, Copper also has been pushed higher by strong Nickel prices. Read More......

Australian Dollar Hits 10 Year High

The Australian Dollar hit a ten-year high yesterday from a better-than-expected retail sales print which rose twice as fast as estimated in February. In addition, home-building approvals surged and contributed to driving the currency higher. Read More.....

Schizophrenic Metal?

Silver just can't seem to make up its mind lately as to whether it is a precious metal following the direction of the Gold market or an industrial metal moving in line with its base metal brethren like Copper and Aluminum. This has left traders confused as to the near-term direction of this popular speculative commodity. Read More.....

Slow Start to the Second Quarter for the US Dollar

A dizzying slow start for the US Dollar today, with a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing report and verbal banter from China over the US Commerce Department’s tariffs on its imported paper goods. The US ISM report detailed a weakened business confidence which has slowed capital investment, as the effects from the struggling auto and housing sectors left the ISM index below a neutral 50 in November, and an even lower level in January. February and March were back above 50, but the actual data on orders and production are less encouraging. Some inventory draw-down is leaving weak production as underlying capital investment demand remains weak. Against the Euro the US Dollar was consolidating in tight ranges producing a small dip to 1.3381 before closing out the American session at 1.3366. The USD/JYP made less than a 30-point move the entire trading session. The high was 117.86 and the day’s low was 117.46. Last but not least, the only real move was the British Pound which capitalized on the quiet Dollar trading during the London session. Heated speculation of an impending rate hike from the Bank of England helped drive GBPUSD over 135 points from overnight lows to a test of 1.9800. Tomorrow in the news from the US, car and truck sales reports will be released, but traditionally the reports do not draw that much attention in the currency markets.

David Hilgeman XPRESSTRADE Analyst

Monday, April 02, 2007

Melted Chocolate!

The gravity effect was alive and well in the Cocoa ring this morning, with massive speculative liquidation triggering sell-stops to send prices through support at 1879 in the May contract. The heavy liquidation came amidst highly overbought market conditions, with speculative accounts holding a net-long position of just under 59,000 contracts. Read More.....

USDA, Geopolitical Concerns Shake Up Commodity Markets

Corn – Corn futures finished limit down on Friday’s USDA Projected Plantings report, which had projected Corn acres pegged at 90.4 million, which is a rise of 15.5 percent over last year. Attractive Corn has helped shift these acres from other grains, namely Soybeans, and the scenario sets up for a higher carryout than the projected 750 million bushels. Read More....

The Land Down Under – Then Off and Running

The Australian Dollar has had a great start to the week, producing an 80-point move from the start of the forex open. A better-than-expected retail sales print rose twice as fast as expected in February and home-building approvals surged, driving the currency to a 10-year high. Read More....

What happened?

That was the question being asked by Soybean traders on Friday, as a higher opening call tied to a “bullish “ USDA prospective plantings and grain stocks report failed to materialize and Soybean prices opened and traded lower throughout the session. Read More....

90.454 million acres = limit down!

In a nutshell, that’s the story of the Corn market today, as US producers intend on planting 90.454 million acres this year. This is a whopping gain of just over 12 million acres, as current high prices for Corn make the economics of switching acreage from Soybeans and Cotton desirable. Read More....