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Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Whole bunch of nothing!

It was a very slow day in the majors today, with a bit of consolidation ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment reports, and the upcoming Easter Holiday weekend. As we get closer to this Sunday, trading traditionally becomes much thinner with an increased possibility of unpredictable volatility. Market-making indicators were in short supply this morning, as only the pending home sales report hit the wires by mid-day trade. While this report failed to move traders in any clear direction, one small piece of information was that the month of February did beat estimates by 0.7% – not enough to signal a rebound in housing, but a small ray of hope for Dollar bulls nonetheless. US car and truck sales have yet to hit the wire, but forecasts are just off the 12.8 million average pace in 2006. Buying incentives have provided a bouncy path for vehicle sales over the last few years to drive the monthly pace of domestic sales. High gasoline prices provide an advantage to fuel efficient imports and domestic autos, but SUV sales have not shown a strong decline in light of larger discounts and domestic preferences. Reduced discounting softened the pace of 2006 sales to a 12.8 million average pace from 13.4 million in 2005. With a 25% weight in retail sales, autos provide the monthly swing to consumer spending. As we head into the Asian trading session, the USD/JYP is holding at the high of 118.94 and the EUR/USD is sitting at 1.3329.

David Hilgeman, XPRESSTRADE Analyst