Thursday, November 30, 2006

Daily FX Wrap Up

Just when you thought……

The US dollar sank to new lows today against the majors. The move came in a few distinct phases. The first phase sparked interest with personal income and spending, then came PCE-level inflation report, followed by the weekly jobless claims. The market first honed in on personal spending and income numbers. The expected disappointment in spending and strength in earnings reversed their roles in October. The American public spent 0.2 percent more over the month, which is the biggest increase for the past three months. At the same time, income growth slowed for the first time in six months. Concurrently, the PCE figures were objectively weighing in on the Fed’s consistent assurances that inflation risk is ‘primarily to the upside.’ The last phase of the US D7ollar’s decline came in from weekly jobless claims. This report was the biggest surprise for the hour. Initial claims for the week ending November 25 ballooned to 353,000, the most in over a year. What this three-phase attack against the US Dollar caused was a new high, with the EUR/USD hitting 1.3277. Many experts are wondering if this can continue. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

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COMEX Metal Futures Will Begin Trading on Globex Sunday, December 3, 2006

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Hi Ho Silver!

Hi Ho Silver! Silver has broken out to the upside, as December futures test levels last seen in May. Deferred months are trading above $14 an ounce, while front month December futures test $13.90. Dollar weakness can be linked to the breakout in the metals, as Silver has been snatched-up by commodity funds in the past few sessions. Read More....

Downtrend For the Dollar Continues!

The downtrend for the Dollar continues, as this morning's jobless claims report released by the Labor Department jumped higher than expected, up 2.4%. The Euro seized the opportunity to make a new high at 1.3218, before drifting back down just under 1.3200. Read More.....

Crude Rises Before 1st Cold Spell of Winter

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading higher, as the market continues to rise after yesterday’s unexpected drop in Crude Inventories. U.S. stockpiles declined by 360,000 barrels last week to 340.8 million barrels. Read More....

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Crude Oil Soars!

Crude Oil soars on news of lower inventories. The Department of Energy reported this morning that crude inventories declined 360,000 barrels in the past week, pushing January crude oil futures $1.47 higher to settle at $62.47 per barrel. Finished gasoline stocks were also reported lower month over month, adding more bullish bias to todays report. Read More.....

Daily FX Wrap Up

The US Dollar gained a bit from yesterday’s recent lows. If you are looking at price action, ranges were still intact, but momentum on the Dollar seemed to strengthen. For the EURUSD pair, a brief move above the 1.32 figure marked a 20-month high, before sinking over 85 points in what might be profit- taking. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.3150.

Flying over the Pacific, the Japanese Yen moved less dramatically in the Asian session, hitting a low around 115.60. This began a rally up to116.50, before another test of the resistance fended off a further run. Looking East, the USD/CHF made a double bottom and produced a 100-point rally to 1.2110. Currently, the Swiss Franc is trading at 1.2099 verses the US Dollar. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

GDP Tops Expectations!

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading slightly higher, as cold weather forecasts bring the contract to one-month highs. So far this week, Crude Oil has risen by around $2 a barrel. Crude is trading higher for the third consecutive day, as cold weather forecasts for next week are expected to increase demand for heating fuel in the U.S. Read More....

Dollar Gains Momentum

A revised, stronger than expected 3rd quarter gross domestic product report helped the Dollar gain some ground back against the Euro and the Yen. A survey conducted by pegged the GDP to come in at 1.8%, but the revision saw the economy growing 2.2%. The Euro dipped to support levels on the news, down to 1.3130. Read More.....

Corn Rally --- Too Much Too Soon?

Corn Rally --- Too Much Too Soon? Grain futures are called lower across the board this morning, as $4 a bushel corn is out of reach for now. Cash prices for corn are deeply discounted to futures across the nation. The market fury surrounding ethanol and alternative biofuels may have reached a climax, as Acher Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) shares lost .88% on volume nearly double the average on ideas that lower prices at the pump may tame corn-based ethanol growth. Read More.....

Sugar Breakout Near?

Sugar breakout near? March sugar once again touched key resistance at 12 cents this morning, as fund and trade buying kept prices well supported. Higher Crude Oil prices and rising demand for Ethanol, have traders jumping back on the bullish Sugar bandwagon. Read More.....

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Daily FX Wrap Up

The Euro hit another multi-month high today against the US Dollar. The US Durable Goods report was released today, posting a net loss for October of 8.3-- the largest drop in more than 6 years. In addition, the median price of a home dropped to $221,000 in October, a decline of 3.5 percent from a year ago. According to the National Association of Realtors, this is the biggest year to year price decline on current record. For many Americans, their house is the largest purchase they will ever make and many experts use housing prices to gauge overall financial stability. Despite the bearish news today, the US Dollar was not in a total decline. Small gains were made against the Japanese Yen from a disappointing Retail Sales report. A weaker than expected -.02% versus the expected .07% slumped the Yen verse the US Dollar. Some analysts suggested that sales for clothing were depressed by unusually warm weather in October much as sales in the summer were hurt by unseasonable amounts of rain. Currently the EUR/USD is trading up near the high of 132.03. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

S&P Free Fall

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading slightly higher, as cold weather forecasts finally enter the fray. Crude is trading higher for the second consecutive day, as cold weather forecasts for next week are expected to increase demand for heating fuel in the U.S. Read More.....

Bonds Approaching Highs of the Year!

Bonds approaching highs of the year! At the beginning of 2006, few traders expected Treasury Bond prices to rally, with the Federal Reserve continuing their tightening campaign and fears that high energy prices would push inflation to unacceptable levels. However, just this morning, December Bond futures moved to their highest levels since January, as US durable goods orders for October fell the most since 2000. Read More....

Dollar Still Slipping Againist the Euro

The Dollar continues to slip against the Euro in dramatic fashion. Today's news reported a huge drop in U.S. durable goods for October, down 8.3%, the largest decline since July of 2000. The report adds further fuel to the fire for economists predicting further weakness in the domestic economy. Read More....

Bull Market Percolating?

Bull market percolating? March Coffee continues to hold above the key $1.20 level, as fund buying tied to ideas of a below average 2007-08 Brazilian Coffee crop are keeping prices well supported. There are reports out of Brazil that new-crop Coffee production may be 20% lower than this season's totals, due to the cyclical nature of the crop and concerns that dry weather has hampered proper development. Read More.....

Monday, November 27, 2006

Daily FX Wrap Up

Much has changed for the US Dollar with economic indicators, technical formations, and China becoming a new power house keeping the greenback on edge. From a technical standpoint, the Dollar has been pushed to new lows against many of its most liquid counter parts. Last week’s large move was most apparent from the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY pairs. Late last week a thin market coupled with China stating that they are moving much of the People’s Bank of China’s reserve away from the US Dollar sparked a sell off. In addition, clearing the initial hurdles in the majors may have tipped the scales and provided the market the ability to build momentum in bigger runs. Whether this is the case or not will also be reflected in measures of current market volatility, as well as, implied volatility. The thin liquidity last week was undoubtedly the main trigger for the technical move. Now that the market is back to full capacity, it will remain to be seen whether the market volatility will retain its new levels, with new trends forming after the recent breaks. Today the market did not make any retraction to last week’s move. Currently the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3133, which is almost exactly where it opened. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Dollar Looking For A Reason

The Dollar looks for any reason to move against the Euro this morning, as the publication of investor confidence surged to a new high in November. The index increased to a 10-month high, 14 points from the previous 79, to hit 93 in November. Read More.....


Euroriffic! Euro Currency futures surged to their highest levels since March of 2005, as traders continue to bail out of the US Dollar due to concerns of possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This comes at a time when the European Central Bank is expected to hike rates due to concerns about rising inflation. Read More.....

Friday, November 24, 2006

Dollar Drops

EURO: The Greenback trades at 19-month lows versus the Euro. The Dollar sell-off began in London before dawn broke in Manhattan, as the Euro rallied a full cent in 15 minutes before sellers stepped in to stop the onslaught. Read More.....

Not A Good Day For The Dollar

Thanksgiving was not a good day for the US Dollar. The Euro jumped up on the Dollar to produce 20-month highs after comments from The People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Wu Xiaoling. He implied that holding on to the US Dollar may not be such a wise thing. Read More....

US Dollar, A Real Turkey

The US Dollar was a real Turkey over the Thanksgiving holiday, as it fell to 19-month lows against the Euro Currency this morning. Very thin holiday trading, coupled with continued concerns that China will be diversifying some of its massive reserves out of the greenback have traders fearful of being long the Dollar. Read More.....

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Oil Leak!

Oil leak! January Crude Oil fell below $59 this morning, after the EIA announced that Crude Oil stocks rose by 5.1 million barrels last week. This was way above the 400,000 barrel gain most traders were expecting. A sizable build in Gasoline stocks and weather forecasts calling for average to above average temperatures in the eastern half of the US also weighed on Oil prices. Read More.....

Daily FX Wrap Up

The US Dollar has dropped over 70 pips against the Euro today. This decline came in the wake of the White House announcement that stated growth estimates for 2006 and 2007 would be scaled down. The Bush administration curbed its projections for 2006 from 3.6% to 3.1%, while 2007 estimates were revised down from 3.3% to 2.9%. Edward Lazear, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, stated, “The housing market, as you know, it has been hit, I think, harder than most of us had expected.” This news sounded an alarm for a sell-off of the US Dollar and took some of the focus away from the strong start to the US Christmas shopping season. Looking across the Pacific, the Japanese Yen also gained on the Dollar, moving almost 100 pips in the early morning American session. Currently the USD / JPY is trading at 116.710. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Crude Hovers $60, as Traders Await Inventory Data

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading relatively flat, as traders wait for this morning’s supply data. The U.S. Crude Inventories report is scheduled to be released at 9:30 AM CST. A Bloomberg News survey of 15 analysts expects stockpiles to have gained another 700,000 barrels last week. Read More.....

White House Announcement Pushes the Dollar Down

The US Dollar has already dropped over 70 pips against the Euro this morning. This decline came in the wake of the White House announcement that stated growth estimates for 2006 and 2007 would be scaled down. The Bush administration curbed its projections for 2006 from 3.6% to 3.1%, while 2007 estimates were revised down from 3.3% to 2.9%. Read More.....

Cocoa Harvest Depresses Prices

Cocoa harvest depresses prices, but for how long? The 2006-07 Cocoa harvest is in full swing, with origin hedge pressure and no reported delay in harvest activities depressing prices. Since November 10, the March Cocoa futures have fallen nearly $100 per ton, as trade buyers continue to hold-out for lower prices before entering the market in earnest. Read More.....

Thanksgiving Holiday Trading Schedule

Pipelines and Crude

After posing contract lows yesterday, January Crude Oil posted nice gains after a report that the Trans-Alaska Pipeline is moving only 25% of its usual capacity due to severe weather conditions. Also supportive were estimates for a another storage drawdown in both Gasoline and Distillate last week. Read More.....

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Daily FX Wrap Up

The Euro continued to consolidate its range against the greenback, finding support near the 1.2800 level. It has been a tight range bound day of trading with small swings up to 35 pips. The French GDP did make a small bearish move in the market before the EUR / USD bounded back to reach a high of 1.2853.

Looking at the USD/JPY, a temporary spike higher to 118.30 was the most action the pair could muster as a 30-point range above 117.70 support dominated price action. For the remained of the week, expect to see small moves in tight ranges. Looking ahead, no major economic news is scheduled for the remainder of the week.

Crude Prices Remain Range-Bound

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading higher, as traders try to anticipate a reduction in U.S. supplies. Speculative trading is betting that the inevitable winter season will bring a rise to demand, lowering current supplies. More will be seen with tomorrow’s U.S. Crude Inventories report. Traders also remain wary of next month’s OPEC meeting, where additional production cuts are expected to be announced. The market does remain skeptical that the cuts will be fully implemented. January Crude Oil futures are currently trading down 60 cents at $58.37 a barrel.

Corn: December Corn futures ended the overnight session relatively flat. Last night’s activity was quiet, after another volatile day of trading. Monday saw Corn futures settle higher, but were well off their intraday highs. Several contract months set new life-of-contract highs and traded at levels not seen in 10 years. Profit-taking after these new highs were established took the early steam out of the market. December Corn on the eCBOT ended the overnight session up 1/4 cent at $360.25 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures are trading relatively flat in early trading. S&P futures traded around the flat line for most of the evening. Traders are trying to weigh the strength of the recent rally heading into the end of the calendar year. There are no economic numbers scheduled for today. This leaves traders looking for corporate news to react to during this holiday week. Boeing (BA) was able to land a $5.5 billion order from Korean Air, and there was also an analyst upgrade on Verizon Communications (VZ). December S&P 500 futures are trading up 0.80 at 1406.10 in pre-market trading.

Trading Volume Slowing Ahead of Reports

Trading volumes will be a bit light this week, due to the upcoming US and Japanese holidays on Thursday. Markets barely budged on the French GDP data released this morning. While the growth report was only a second reading of previously released figures, the data did not do well for the Euro-zone economy. Read More.....

White Hot Metal!

White hot metal! The Platinum market is on fire, with spot prices reaching an all-time high this morning at $1,402.50, as a tight physical market coupled with renewed speculative interest has produced a surge in volatility. For the past few weeks, rumors of a possible Platinum ETF have hit the market, causing a run-up in prices. Read More.....

Corn Continues To Reach Contract Highs

Contract highs continue for Corn futures: Bullish news greeted Corn traders this morning, as word that Argentina, a major world Corn exporter, has suspended new-crop exports until further notice. This surprising news, coupled with the loss of exports from China, had traders in a buying mood. Read More....

Monday, November 20, 2006

FX Daily Wrap Up

The US Dollar posted moderate gains following a sharp upward revision of U.S. September leading economic indictors. The October figure came in line with the expectation at 0.2%, and the September initial reading of 0.1% was revised up to 0.4%, indicating the economy is likely to remain in good shape. EUR/USD fell to 1.2810 after the release of the data. With the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US on Thursday, it is likely to be a slow trading week with smaller trading ranges for the majors. Often this is a time for professionals to recalculate their trading performance and adjust plans to finish out the year. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Dollar Drifting Aimlessly

The Dollar continues to drift aimlessly after the sell-off Friday morning. The Leading Indicators report is due out at 10am and is expected to move the Dollar market very little. The Greenback continues to plow old ground versus the Euro, as the 1.2760 to 1.2870 range from last week has provided the boundries for the trade so far this week. Read More.....

Argentina Suspends Corn Exports Indefinitely!

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading lower on warm U.S. weather and OPEC skepticism. Heating demand for the Northeast U.S. is expected to be 90% of normal for the upcoming week. The mild autumn has left the U.S. with ample supplies of fuel, despite production cuts from OPEC members. Also contributing to the strong stockpiles is an increase in supplies from non-OPEC countries. January Crude Oil futures are currently trading down 60 cents at $58.37 a barrel.

Corn: December Corn futures ended the overnight session higher, continuing Friday’s late strength. Friday saw Corn futures shake-off early losses, to close on their highs, as speculative and fund buying drove prices up. December Corn ended Friday’s session up 3 ¾ cents higher at $355.25 a bushel, 9 cents off its lows. News of an indefinite suspension of corn exports from Argentina gave overnight support to the technically bullish market. December Corn on the eCBOT ended the overnight session up 9 ½ cents at $364.75 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures are trading lower in early trading. Weakness in the overseas markets and profit-taking from last week has led to this morning’s weakness. The Nikkei 225 fell 2.3% last night, and in Europe, the FTSE is trading down 0.4%. Inflation concerns are also creeping in, as traders are beginning to expect rate cuts next year. In economic news Leading Indicators are due at 9:00 AM CST (consensus 0.2%). S&P futures are back above 1400.00, after falling to an overnight low of 1399.10. December S&P 500 futures are trading down 1.70 at 1403.10 in pre-market trading.

Sugar Consolidation Continues

Sugar consolidation continues: The past two months have seen Sugar futures stuck in a narrow 2-cent range, as a bearish supply surplus expected in 2007 has been countered by increasing demand for cane-based Ethanol. Current estimates call for a Sugar surplus of between 4 and 6 million metric tons for the 2006-07 marketing season. Read More.....

Friday, November 17, 2006

Treasury Futures End on A Up Note

Treasury futures ended the week on an up-note, as a disappointingly weak US housing starts figure coupled with a benign CPI and PPI for October, gave bulls a reason to support the market. Traders are beginning to believe that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates early in 2007, with concerns about a weak US economy overcoming issues of rising inflation. Read More....

FX Daily Wake Up

The US Dollar gave back almost all of the gains made in the past week, as a bearish housing report dampened optimism for the world's largest economy. Following the poor economic data, FX traders immediately sparked a significant and extended Dollar decline that has left it at or near weekly lows against all the major currencies. Though it subsequently regained some ground through the American session, the Dollar remained 50 points lower against the Euro, 80 pips lower against the Pound, and 60 points off its open against the Japanese Yen. A US Commerce Department report showed that national housing starts were the lowest levels since 1997, as a rapidly falling real estate market hurt demand for new homes. This indicator normally has a strong pull in the major markets and we most likely have not seen the end effect from this report. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Commodity Trade-Offs

Exchange Traded Funds seem like a convenient way for newcomers to get into the commodity markets, but a closer comparison reveals that traders may be better served trading in the futures markets directly. Read More....

El Nino Blows Away Crude Support

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading lower on warm U.S. weather and OPEC skepticism. Crude Oil has fallen near a 17-month low, as warm weather continues to decrease heating demands in the Northeast U.S. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center announced yesterday that it expects a mild winter for the Northern regions of the U.S., as an El Nino weather pattern persists. A strong El Nino typically brings mild winters to the Northern U.S. by altering storm tracks and creating unusual weather patterns. Yesterday, January Crude Oil futures fell $2.14, to settle at $58.57 a barrel. Traders also remain skeptical that OPEC will meet pledges to reduce production. January Crude Oil futures are currently trading down 40 cents at $58.17 a barrel.

Wheat: December Wheat futures ended the overnight session slightly higher. This morning’s early gains come in the wake of a sharp sell-off yesterday. December Wheat futures at the CBOT lost 12 ¾ cents yesterday, to settle at $468.75 a bushel. Disappointing export sales and technical weakness in Corn were credited with the weakness. Weather outlooks remain moderate in the U.S., while China continues to look dry. There is some indication, however, that key areas in China growing areas will receive rain next weekend. December Wheat Futures on the eCBOT ended the overnight session up 1 ¼ cents at $470.00 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures are trading lower in early trading. Disappointing data on Housing Starts and Building Permits are behind the early weakness. Housing Starts fell 14.6% in October to 1.49 million units (consensus 1.68 million). Building Permits fell 6.3% to 1.54 million units (consensus 1.63 million). This was the lowest reading on Housing Starts since July 2000, and it was the lowest reading on Building Permits in almost a decade. This morning’s data has stoked early concerns that rising interest rates have slowed the economy. Profit-taking after five straight days of gains is also lending to the early selling effort. December S&P 500 futures are trading down 4.10 at 1401.00 in pre-market trading.

Yen, Active in Overnight Trading

The Yen was the most active currency overnight, as longs scrambled to cover positions on poor Japanese machinery orders, and BoJ talk of slowing interest rate adjustments, only to jump back in as the Yen gained on reports of Chinese policy makers sticking to their existing reserve diversification plan. Read More....


Timber! The recent upswing in Lumber futures may be nearing an end, as this morning's release of US housing starts and building permits figures shows the US housing market remains in the doldrums. Housing starts fell by 14.6% in October, to a seasonally adjusted 1.486 million annual rate. Read More.....

Sugar Falls To 2-Week Lows

Sugar futures fell to 2-week lows this morning, as lower Crude Oil prices sent speculative accounts to liquidate their long positions. Floor sources reported that light sell-stops were activated below the recent lows at 11.60 in the March contract. Weaker Crude Oil prices were also a noted factor in today's declines, as speculative selling spilled over into the Sugar ring. Read More....

Thursday, November 16, 2006

FX Daily Wrap Up

No News is Bad News….for the Yen

In a week of heavy hitting news reports, The Bank of Japan’s Governor Fukui again refused to commit to further rate hikes before the calendar year end. This time his comment was “I would not rule out any timing.” Most traders took this to mean that there would be no change in rates before the end of the year. Many experts believe that the BOJ will watch the US holiday season which is an excellent way to gauge the relative strength of US consumption. The US is Japan’s number two market and remains critical to its export led plans for growth. The net effect of Fukui’s comments in the FX markets was another loss for the Yen, as USD/JPY once again pushed back above 118.00 while EUR/JPY rose within 10 points of its all time high. The USD/JYP finished out trading the American session at 118.21 up almost 45 pips from its open. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Markets To Watch

Crude Oil: December Crude Oil contracts are trading slightly higher, as trading remains range-bound. Prices are climbing this morning, after OPEC’s president issued another warning of possible reductions in output. Also lending support to prices is reaction to yesterday’s inventory data, which showed a decline in gasoline inventory for the fifth straight week. Supplies of distillate fuels fell 3.57 million barrels, and gasoline supplies fell 3.78 million barrels. U.S. crude inventories rose 1.2 million barrels to 336 million last week. December Crude Oil futures are currently trading up 25 cents at $59.01 a barrel.

Soybeans: January Soybeans ended the overnight session with modest gains. This morning’s gains have taken back much of yesterday’s decline. Yesterday, Soybeans ended a choppy day of trading by giving back early gains to finish in the red. Profit-taking was credited with the turnaround. January Soybeans at the CBOT ended the day down 7 ½ cents, to settle at $663.75 a bushel. Higher trade in China led the overnight gains. Despite the overnight strength, traders should remain wary of closing at the low end of a 15 ¾ cent range yesterday. January Soybeans on the eCBOT ended the overnight session up 5 ¼ cents at $669.00 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures are trading higher in early trading, after consumer prices dropped for the second straight month. Total CPI fell 0.5% in October (consensus –0.3%), due to falling energy prices. The closely-watched core rate rose a lower-than-expected 0.1% (consensus 0.2%). This morning’s numbers give some validation to yesterday’s PPI data, which also showed tame inflation readings. These numbers help relieve concerns from yesterday’s FOMC minutes, in which nearly every Fed official views the current rates of core inflation as “uncomfortably high”. December S&P 500 futures are trading up 4.80 at 1406.30 in pre-market trading.

What A Difference A Day Makes!

What a difference a day makes! Traders in financials are getting whipsawed lately, as recent economic data seems to alternate between the bull and bear camp. Yesterday, Treasury futures tumbled, as a stronger Empire State manufacturing index, coupled with a "hawkish" tone on inflation, as seen from yesterday's Fed minutes release, wiped out the market's gains from Tuesday's weak PPI figure. Read More....

Coffee Futures Warming Up

Coffee futures starting to warm-up: Speculative accounts are starting to take a look at the long side of the Coffee market, with commodity fund buying and local short-covering sending prices to the highs for the week. Today's gains came despite a lower close in the London robusta market. Read More....

Choppy Dollar After Fed Meeting

The Dollar saw choppy trading after the release of last month's Fed meeting minutes. Speculators pricing interest rate cuts into 2007 will be sorely disappointed as members for the central bank committee outlined continued inflationary pressure but pointed to the weak housing market as a means to keep economic growth under control. Read More....

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Daily FX Wrap Up

With all the whipsaws of yesterday's markets, traders used the morning hours of today's session to find their bearings. A strong manufacturing report in the early New York hours and a highly anticipated Federal minutes release were keeping the fundamental traders tuned to the markets.

Measuring the influence of today's indicators, the EUR/USD produced a noteworthy 25-point drop to 1.2775. This fast move was minor compared to the 60 point swing lower in the hours preceding the report. The USD/JPY had a three point top around 118.20, and finished the American session trading at 118.20. Though the European session, the British pound slipped another 130 points against the dollar before hitting a low of 1.8835 and making modest gains to close the current session at 1.8885. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Dollar Looks To Rebound

The Dollar looks to continue it's rebound against the majors, with yesterday's PPI decline indicating a reduced chance of the Fed making a Dollar positive rate adjustment. Oversold market conditions allowed longs to get back into the market at a discount, pushing the Dollar-Yen pair up through 118.00. Read More.....

"About Right" About All Bulls Needed

Crude Oil: December Crude Oil contracts are trading slightly higher, as trading remains range-bound leading up to this morning’s inventory report. Crude Inventories are scheduled to be released at 9:30 AM CST. The results of this report will direct trading action for the rest of the day. There is speculation that fuel inventories are beginning to decrease ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday in the U.S., one of its busiest travel seasons. However, mild weather in much of the Northern Hemisphere is reducing demand for heating oil and natural gas. December Crude Oil futures are currently trading up 23 cents at $58.51 a barrel.

Corn: December Corn futures ended the overnight session higher, continuing yesterday afternoon’s late-day surge. Corn shook off early choppy trade, to end the day sharply higher. A speculative-led technical rally was credited with the surge. After early losses failed to break through Monday’s low, selling interest disappeared. The technical bounce led fund buyers to return to the market after three days of weakness in the contract. The overnight activity was relatively muted, as traders look to reassess yesterday’s activity. December Corn on the eCBOT ended the overnight session up 1.75 at $359.50 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures are trading relatively flat in early trading. The flat start for the market is not surprising after yesterday’s late-day surge. December S&P futures rallied hard late yesterday, to end the day up 9.70 at 1397.70. The late-day surge came in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole. Poole described the Fed’s interest rate policy as “about right”. That was about all the bulls needed to hear. Futures quickly went from relatively flat to highs not seen since November 2000. After yesterday’s comments from Poole, traders will be looking closely at the release of the FOMC Minutes from their October 25 meeting (due out at 1:00 PM CST). Crude Inventories are also on the economic plate for today, due out at 9:30. In corporate news, Delta Air Lines Inc gained in pre-market trading after US Airways Group Inc. offered to buy the bankrupt carrier for $8 billion. It is a deal that would result in the world’s largest airline. December S&P 500 futures are trading up 0.10 at 1397.80 in pre-market trading.

Crude Oil Remains Range-Bound For Now

Crude Oil prices remain range-bound, but for how long? Since early October, Crude Oil prices have been caught in an increasingly narrow trading range, as neither bulls nor bears seem to be able to grasp control. Rally attempts are met with commercial selling, and sell-off's find willing buyers at "bargain "prices. Read More....

Rally Corntinues!

Rally corntinues! What was supposed to be a quiet day in the grain complex turned into a spectacular rally in the Corn market, as large speculative traders continue to add to an already massive long position. Commodity funds were early buyers, as the most active December contract failed to move below support at $3.41. Read More....

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

FX Daily Wrap Up

Today the US Dollar had a bit of a roller coaster ride from domestic and foreign news reports. Starting the American session, the Dollar was trading near the 1.2820 level against the Euro and near the 117.60 for the Japanese Yen. Looking towards the land of the rising sun, the Japanese Gross Domestic Product Report was quite bullish. The Japanese economy surged 2% vs. an expected 1%. The market was anticipating a print even weaker than 1.0%, and the news caused a major price movement. The strong GDP figure reintroduces the possibility of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan before the end of the year. However, if you dove into the report you would see that growth came from exports and not from domestic spending. Domestic demand is preferred for growth because more people are freely spending money; this is usually because there is a surplus of cash, which indicates that the economy as a whole is doing well.

The US had its own economic surprise in this morning's release of the Produce Price Index for October. The report showed a decline of 1.6 %, which was more than expected. But the real news about the report was the market's reaction. The USD/JPY rebounded to almost the days high of 117.85 before coming back to end the American session 10 pips below where it started at 117.50. Similar movements were seen with the Euro, but all the major pairs closed the American session near their opening range. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Markets To Watch

Crude Oil: December Crude Oil contracts are trading slightly higher, as trading remains range-bound. Traders are waiting for additional proof that OPEC production cuts are actually working to reduce heavy supplies. While the cuts have not been enough to reverse recent price declines, they have been enough to keep Crude Oil futures trading near $60 a barrel. Traders seem to be patiently waiting for inventory data due out tomorrow morning. December Crude Oil futures are currently trading up 24 cents at $58.82 a barrel.

Corn: December Corn futures ended the overnight relatively flat. Trade remains quiet after an uneventful session on Monday. Monday saw Corn futures trade higher in the overnight session, only to give way to speculative selling during the day. With no news out to support the overnight advances, the bulls had no momentum to carry over into the day session. December Corn on the CBOT ended Monday slightly lower, settling down 0.75 at $342.50 a bushel. News remained light in the overnight session, keeping trading muted. December Corn on the eCBOT ended the overnight session up 0.25 at $342.75 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures are trading higher in early trading. Futures are up on PPI data and better-than-expected earnings from Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT). Total PPI fell a much larger-than-expected 1.6% (consensus –0.5%). October’s decline matched the largest drop on record set in October 2001. The closely watched core PPI came in at –0.9% (consensus 0.1%). The unexpected drop in the core rate suggests inflation at the wholesale level remains contained. Several Fed Bank presidents are scheduled to speak this afternoon, two of them at noon, and one more at 3:00 PM CST. This morning’s news has sparked the index closer to the 1400 mark. December S&P 500 futures are trading up 5.30 at 1393.30 in pre-market trading.

What Inflation?

What inflation? Apparently on the wholesale level, the Federal Reserve did its job of controlling inflation, as this morning's release of the October Producer Price Index showed a surprising drop of 1.6%. This was sharply below average estimates of a decline of 0.6%. Read More....

Lean Hogs Fall

Lean Hog futures fell to 2-week lows this afternoon, as sharply lower cash market quotes and commodity fund selling kept buyers on the sidelines. Today's gap-lower opening in the December contract took the market below the widely watched 20-day moving average, triggering sell-stops along the way. Read More....

Monday, November 13, 2006

Daily FX Wrap Up

The trading week began with market volatility trending higher across the board as last week's economic news produced sharp movements in the markets. There was added uncertainty in the market last week, as control of the US Congress shifted from the Republicans to the Democrats. In addition, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia both raised short-term rates by 0.25% continuing the trend of higher interest rates around the world. The US Federal Reserve seems to be stuck in a holding pattern, but the market will find out more once the FOMC minutes are released on Wednesday. Looking ahead, the real price action will likely begin tomorrow morning, with Tuesday's release of PPI and retail sales numbers. Wednesday has the FOMC minutes. Thursday will have Initial claims, CPI and Philadelphia Fed. Friday will have Housing Starts and Building Permits. Looking at today's session; the US Dollar gained almost 80 pips against the Euro, closing out the American session at 1.2800. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Markets To Watch

Crude Oil: December Crude Oil contracts are trading lower, as mild U.S. weather continues to reduce demand for heating fuel. Heating demand is expected to be 35% below normal this week in the U.S. Northeast. Supply remains high for Crude Oil, despite recent production cuts from OPEC, who is considering additional cuts. Any additional production cuts for OPEC will be decided during the December meeting. Crude Oil futures are trading back below $60 a barrel, but have not been able to make a serious move away from the psychologically important mark. December Crude Oil futures are currently trading down 70 cents at $58.89 a barrel.

Corn: December Corn futures ended the overnight session higher. This morning’s gains have erased Friday’s losses. Friday saw December Corn futures from the CBOT end the session lower by 6.75, to settle at $343.25 a bushel. Trading was quiet on Friday, as many traders took a long weekend for the Veteran’s Day holiday. December Corn on the eCBOT ended the overnight session up 6.75 at $350.00 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures are trading relatively flat in early trading. Friday saw S&P futures finish up for both the day and week. December S&P 500 futures ended Friday up 0.80, to settle at 1384.80, gaining more than 1% on the week. Exxon Mobil Corp, the world’s largest oil exporter, is trading lower due to declines in the price of Crude Oil. Economic Data is light for today, with only the Treasury Budget report due out this afternoon. December S&P 500 futures are trading down 1.00 at 1383.80 in pre-market trading.

Monday, November 13th, 2006

The Dollar saw buying interest against the Euro with dealers thinking the sell-off based on Chinese revaluation had gone too far. Today's Dollar-related reports include the Philly Fed number for the fourth quarter and the U.S. October budget, anticipated to reveal a wider than expected deficit to 49 billion. Read More...

Red Hot Copper Cooling Off

The once "red" hot Copper market has started to cool of late, falling to 4 1/2 month lows early this morning, as speculators continue to exit the market. Copper stocks are continuing to increase, with the London Metal Exchange reporting a gain of 3,100 tons this morning, to stand at 151,300 tons. Read More....

Friday, November 10, 2006

Sugar Sinks on Option Expiration

Sugar sinks on option expiration: The recent rally to one-month highs in March Sugar lasted all of one day, as producer and local selling as well as option related activity, sent Sugar prices tumbling. The day started out on an up-note, as trade buyers were active early in the session. Read More....

FX Daily Wrap Up

Japan prepares for takeoff!

Japanese producer prices rose sharply in September, as the annual rate rose to 3.6 percent from 3.5 percent in August. Leading the way was a surge in raw materials prices. The increased costs for the corporate sector failed to extend to consumers, as annualized CPI dipped from 0.9 percent to 0.6 percent. Given the inability of companies to pass on cost increases to consumers, price pressures have been close to non-existent. This led the Bank of Japan to keep rates steady at 0.25% since July.

USD / JYP, initially started off the session trading in the 117.55 area and remained in a tight range to end the week almost exactly where it started. Looking to the future, experts believe the Japanese economy will continue to grow near the 1% level despite Hawkish Comments from the Bank of Japan’s Toshihiko Fukui. He has been clear on his beliefs that Japan’s economy is poised for a large move sometime in the near future. Next week in news the Treasury Budget, PPI report and September’s Retail Sales will be released. Stay Tuned…..David Hilgeman

Wheat Takes a Beating!

Crude Oil: December Crude Oil contracts are trading lower, bringing the contract back below $61 a barrel. This morning’s drop comes after a forecast for decreased global energy demand for the third consecutive month. The International Energy Agency reduced its projection for world oil demand this year by 80,000 barrels a day. Demand is still expected to expand by 1.1%, but this is a decrease from earlier forecasts of 1.2%. December Crude Oil futures are currently trading down 66 cents at $60.50 a barrel.

Wheat: December Wheat futures traded slightly higher in the overnight session, finding some support after yesterday’s beat down. Wheat futures closed sharply lower yesterday on fund liquidations. Weakness in Corn lent to the bearish efforts. December Wheat ended the day down 16 cents at $488.00 a bushel, the lowest closing price for the month. December Wheat futures on the eCBOT ended the overnight session up 1 cent at $489.00 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures are trading relatively flat in early trading. Trading is expected to be thin due to the Veterans Day holiday. Yesterday saw the S&P snap a three-session win streak on weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment data and rising Crude Oil prices. The December S&P futures contract ended yesterday’s session down 7.60 at 1384.00. Despite yesterday’s losses, the S&P is poised to end with weekly gains, up roughly 1% on the week thus far. In early news this morning, Dow components Walt Disney (DIS) and American International Group (AIG) released better-than-expected earnings reports. Another blue chip company, Boeing (BA), won a $15 billion helicopter contract from the U.S. Air Force. No major economic reports are scheduled for today. December S&P 500 futures are trading up 0.50 at 1384.50 in pre-market trading.

Yen, Overactive in Overnight Trading

The Yen was the most active currency overnight, as longs scrambled to cover positions on poor Japanese machinery orders, and BoJ talk of slowing interest rate adjustments, only to jump back in as the Yen gained on reports of Chinese policy makers sticking to their existing reserve diversification plan. Read More....

Traders Start Bottom Picking in Cotton

Traders start bottom picking in Cotton: The Cotton market has been a poor performer here in 2006, languishing near contract lows for the past month. Yesterday's USDA crop production report did little to alter the already bearish fundamentals. The USDA estimates the 2006-07 US Cotton crop at 21.3 million 480-pound bales, an increase of 3% from last months estimates. Read More....

Thursday, November 09, 2006

Dollar Index Weak On Mixed Economic Data

Dollar Index weak on mixed economic data: Quite a seesaw day for the US Dollar Index futures, as an initial rally caused by a lower than expected US trade balance figure was offset by a weaker than expected University of Michigan consumer sentiment index reading for November. Read More....

FX Daily Wrap Up

Aussie Stall?

With so much news focused on the EUR / USD pair it is time to look a bit down, and under. Australia's October employment numbers came in at 32.1, far lower than expected. After having grown for 8-consecutive months, adding a total of 254k jobs, this month was the largest fall since September 2005. Full-time jobs fell heavily (-48.6 thousand) while part-time jobs actually rose (+16.6 thousand). The unemployment rate came in at 4.6%, which is an all-time low.

Skipping across the oceans.

The Bank of England raised its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 5.00%. Clearly, the central bank is confident that that the UK economy can absorb the additional rate hikes, but time will only tell if the central bank's hawkish stance at the time of clear evidence of global economic slowdown may in fact be a case of too much tightening too soon. The GBP / USD hit a low today of 1.8975 before a rally pushed to the day's high of 1.9085 and finished out the US session almost where it started at 1.9045. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Greenback Muted In Overnight Trading

The greenback was muted in mixed trading overnight, as traders waited for today's jobless claims report. The Labor Department reports a decline in the number of workers applying for benefits to 308,000 compared to last week's revised 328,000. Government data indicates continued robust employment conditions since the four-week moving average declined, however monetary tightening dominates Fed policy amid jitters about inflation sinking the economy. Read More....

Soybeans Mading New Contract Highs

Soybeans make contract highs, but will it continue? Soybean futures have been the weak sister of the grain complex this year, with most of the focus being concentrated on the Wheat and Corn markets. However, this has not stopped commodity funds from piling into the bean market, as well. Read More.....

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Grain Prices Keep Growing

Grain prices keep growing! Grain Futures exploded to the upside, with the Corn Market leading the charge, as traders expect a bullish USDA crop production report tomorrow. Lower Corn yields in Illinois and the western Corn Belt are expected to drop US Corn production figures to below 10.85 billion bushels. Read More....

FX Daily Wake Up

Trading today has been shanghaied by the Democratic Party taking control of the US House of Representatives. While German export figures came in at an astounding gain of 6.6% and posted a strong trade surplus, this bullish news moved the market only a little. Today's largest move was a decline in the US Dollar that came preempt the election results pushing the EUR / USD to a high of 1.2805 before the greenback fought back to a low near 1.2745. This reaction in the markets looks somewhat muted, however, the true resolution of the US election may not be known until after the Thanksgiving holiday when all of the votes will be ratified. The big difference between winning only the House of Representatives and securing both the House and Senate would mean power for the Democrats to not only block some of the excess of President Bush legislative agenda, but also allow the new Congressional and Senate majority to overturn parts of Bush's policy. A reversal in tax cuts and big Government spending cuts are generally seen as a bearish signal for the US Dollar. Only time will tell the outcome. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Democrats Wins Dollar Loses

The election results are in and it's a resounding victory for Democrats and a defeat for the Dollar. Mid-term election results are indicating the Dems will take control of the Senate, which is a bit of a surprise. Stock futures fell on the news, as the party is widely believed to be less than fiscally responsible. Read More....

Election Fever Hits The Stock Indexes

Election fever hits the stock indexes: After a night in which the Democrats took control of the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate, Stock index futures have caught a case of the "Blue Flu", and are currently trading lower this morning. This morning's sell-off in not unexpected, especially given the sharp gains produced earlier this week. Read More....

Markets To Watch

Crude Oil: December Crude Oil contracts are trading higher, on speculation that U.S. heating oil supplies will fall. That speculation is based on the approaching winter season for the Northern Hemisphere. Also supporting the early-morning buying effort are more calls for production cuts from additional OPEC members, namely Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Monday the cartel would take further action at the December 14 meeting if world markets remained unbalanced. There is also concern that a Democratic-controlled U.S. government would prove bad for oil companies in the long-term. Election results are still coming in, but the Democrats look poised to take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. December Crude Oil futures are currently trading up 31 cents at $59.24 a barrel.

Wheat: December Wheat futures traded higher in the overnight session. Yesterday saw Wheat end lower, as a slight price correction and weak export demand controlled the trading action. Last night saw bulls come back to the forefront, with renewed concerns of developing drought conditions in one of China’s key growing areas. The weather forecasts for winter wheat areas of China near Shandong have no rain in sight on the 10-day outlook. This morning’s strength has the December Wheat contract trading back above $5 a bushel. December Wheat futures on the eCBOT ended the overnight session up 6 3/4 cents at $503.75 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures are trading lower in early trading, as the mid-term election results are leaving the strong possibility that Democrats will take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Several influential leadership groups, especially drug, defense and energy are expected to fare worse under a Democratic-controlled congress. With no other major economic data due out today, the focus will remain on yesterday’s election results. Today’s early down move is a reversal of two-day gains that saw the S&P rise more than 20 points. December S&P 500 futures are trading down 7.00 at 1382.00 in pre-market trading.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Bulls and Bears Battle To A Draw!

Bulls and Bears battle to a draw! December Gold closed down 20 cents to settle at $627.70. The range on the day was $631.20 to $626.20, high to low. Gold has traded in a tight range during the past two sessions, awaiting further confirmation of the trend. Read More.....

FX Daily Wrap Up

Traders looking at fundamental data were focused on everything from the mid-term elections in the US to strong earnings in Europe. Fixed income markets had mixed reactions to Euro-zone data, but focused more on retail sales, which plunged 0.6% in the month of September, bringing the annual rate down to 1.4%. The contraction in sales was more than the expected slip of 0.4%, and was led by a decline in non-food products, such as clothing and shoes. While the majority in Europe are not spending excess money, next month’s retail spending data could see an improvement, as retail PMI showed a surge in annualized sales during October. Price action in the EUR/USD pair was technically “correct” for both Euro-zone retail PMI and retail sales, the 10-point changes upon the releases were merely a blip on the charts, as the central focus today was on the US Dollar. Today is just another example of political events trumping fundamentals, as mid-term elections are in process in the US, and major speculation is being played out as to whether the Democrats will take back Congress. On a technical note, this looks to be the short-term retraction killer that the Euro Bulls were waiting to end. The EUR / USD pair hit a new multiple month high at 1.2820, before closing out the American session near the 1.2780 level.

Hawish Comments From The Central Bank Push the Dollar Lower Againist the Yen

Asian session trading saw the Dollar decline against the Yen, sparked by hawkish comments from the central bank governor of Japan, and leading speculators to forecast another interest rate hike during the 4th quarter. Japan's benchmark rate was increased for the first time in six years to 0.25%, and the governor's comments told investor's that the central bank will make the first move in the country's war on inflation. Read More.....

What A Difference A Day Makes!

What a difference a day makes! The December Dow futures contract exploded yesterday to the upside, and is showing some follow through this morning, as price hovers above yesterday's close of 12133. The bulls are still in control, but need to test the critical 12190 resistance and the 12221 high from October 26th. Read More....

Markets To Watch

Crude Oil: December Crude Oil contracts are relatively flat in early trading, as the contract hovers the $60 mark. Trading was relatively quiet yesterday, with the December Crude Oil contract gaining 88 cents to settle at $60.02 a barrel. While OPEC’s current cuts have not seemed to provide full support, their recent comments suggesting additional cuts by the end of the year have. With stockpiles of fuel considered at very high levels, additional production cuts may become necessary. Unrest in Nigeria over the weekend, and the inevitability of winter weather are also providing support to the market. December Crude Oil futures are currently trading down 3 cents at $59.99 a barrel.

Wheat: December Wheat futures traded higher in the overnight session. Yesterday saw Wheat end higher in a recovery from last week’s declines. Concerns of developing drought conditions in one of China’s key growing areas combined with some concerns of the slow start of the U.S. soft red crop provided yesterday’s support. The overnight session saw a continuation of yesterday’s strength, as the contract finds itself back up to the $5 mark. December Wheat futures on the eCBOT ended the overnight session up 2 cents at $500.00 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures are trading higher in early trading, continuing yesterday’s strength. S&P futures rebounded from its first weekly loss since late September, with sharp gains on Monday. December S&P 500 futures rose 15.30 yesterday to settle at 1383.80. Resurgence in M&A activity and hawkish remarks from Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow gave bulls the strength they needed to carry through a strong day of buying. Today, traders await the results of the closely watched mid-term elections. With no major economic data on deck this morning, all eyes are pinned to election results. December S&P 500 futures are trading up 2.60 at 1386.40 in pre-market trading.

Silver Bulls Continue To Shine

Gold rally stalls, Silver bulls continue to shine! December Gold was unable to close up today after 9 sessions of higher highs. The market finished at $627.90, down $1.30. Technically the bulls are still in control on the daily charts, but today's inside day formation hints that the market may have finally auctioned high enough to cut-off the buy orders in Gold. Read More....

Monday, November 06, 2006

Daily FX Wrap Up

Friday’s economic numbers gave a huge boost to the US Dollar against all major currencies on the back of better employment numbers. The non-farm payroll number for October was lower than expected, however the number for the prior month, September, was revised significantly higher. The unemployment rate came in at 4.4%, which was better than expected. The US Dollar pushed higher across the board on Friday, as the market focused on what the employment number means for the US economy. The Federal Reserve and the possibility of further rate hikes could potentially support the US Dollar. Today, a slow rise in the Dollar showed that the news boom from Friday might be sustainable. With only a small amount of news this week, many traders are looking for signs that the Dollar might break the mid-term trend and have a bit of a rally. The EUR / USD / JYP pair started the day at 118.100 level, and ended near 118.40 for the US session. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Another Range Bound Week For The Dollar

This week looks to be another range-bound situation for the Dollar against the Euro and Yen despite a better than expected unemployment report. Since the data failed to push the market through any significant support or resistance, traders have no reason to reverse the current bearish outlook. Read More.....

Will Gold Finally Sell Off?

Will Gold finally sell off? December futures started on a weaker tone this morning, compared to the powerful close on Friday. Bulls were able to settle the market on a higher high and take out the $630 resistance. The weak Dollar coupled with bullish momentum has kept Gold nicely bid the past few weeks. Read More....

Markets To Watch

Crude Oil: December Crude Oil contracts are lower in early trading, despite comments from OPEC President Edmund Daukoru of further production cuts by year’s end. Daukoru said the market is “clearly oversupplied”. In Nigeria, armed protesters shut down an oil facility run by Agip, an Italian company. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Northeast, which is responsible for roughly 80% of the nation’s heating oil consumption, is expected to remain unseasonably warm for the next few weeks, according to a National Weather Service forecast released Sunday. The warm weather forecasts, coupled with an abundant supply, are over-riding news of further OPEC cuts and attacks in Nigeria in early trading. December Crude Oil futures are currently trading down 21 cents at $58.93 a barrel.

Corn: December Corn futures ended the overnight session up slightly higher. Overnight trading was relatively quiet, after an uneventful day of trading on Friday. December Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade settled down 2 1/5 cents at $342.25 a bushel on Friday. After seeing record volume on Thursday of 423,875 contracts, the market may be poised to take a breather. Weather forecasts are relatively calm for the upcoming week, as traders look for the next news event to move the market. December Corn futures at the eCBOT ended the overnight session up 3 cents at $345.25 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures are trading higher in early trading. Traders are buying following a week of losses and a fall in Crude Oil futures back below $59 a barrel. There may also be some speculative buying heading into Tuesday’s mid-term elections. In acquisition news, Microsoft chairman Bill Gates made a bid on the Four Seasons Hotel Inc. There are no major economic numbers due out today. December S&P 500 futures are trading up 4.00 at 1372.50 in pre-market trading.

Friday, November 03, 2006

Loonie Rallies to End the Week on an Up Note!

Loonie rallies to end the week on an up note! Canadian Dollar futures had a rough week, as a surprise decision by the Canadian government to start taxing the distributions of the popular Canadian income trusts, sent the country's currency plummeting. Read More....

CBOT Agriculture Complex Surpasses 1 Million in Trading Volume

CHICAGO, Nov. 3 -- The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) (NYSE: BOT) today announced its Agricultural futures and options complex exceeded one million in trading volume yesterday and set a new all-time volume record. The new record of 1,006,014 contracts surpassed the previous high of 929,546 contracts set on October 6, 2006. Read More....

Daily FX Wrap Up

The United States landed a big punch today from the Non-farm payroll's report, giving Dollar bulls something to rally around. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 92k for the month of October but, September payrolls figure was revised upwards from 51k to 148k, making the 2 month average 120k, which is well within market expectations. The unemployment rate inched lower to 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent, the lowest level since May 2001. Average hourly earnings rose at a healthy 3.9 percent pace while average weekly hours increased from 33.8 to 33.9. Therefore even though we had a less than 100k payroll print, this suggests that the labor market remains tight, which should keep the Federal Reserve in their seats at least through the first quarter. With this positive out look for the Dollar many traders are asking, "Is the sell-off over?" This analysis thinks probably not for the long term, but in the short term, it could very well be a bit of a retraction. Next week there is a gambit of news from consumer credit report, crude inventory release, export and import prices and wholesale inventories.

Unemployment Number Throwing Traders For A Loop

September's revised unemployment number trumped October, throwing traders for a loop for a second consecutive month. The economy gained 92,000 jobs in October, declining from 148,000 in September. This brings the benchmark rate of unemployment down from 4.6% to 4.4%. Read More....

Deja Vu: Just Like Last Month

Deja Vu: Just like last month, the Labor Department reported a disappointing headline non-farm payrolls number, but revised up sharply the previous month's figure. Non-farm payrolls for October rose by 92,000 jobs, below the average trade estimate of a gain of 125,000 jobs. Read More.....

Thursday, November 02, 2006

Daily FX Wrap Up

Japan's Watanabe

"Given that the Japanese economy is improving, there are no reasons related to Japan for its currency to weaken,'' Vice Finance Minister Watanabe said at a press conference in Tokyo today. He said foreign exchange levels are determined by the relative strength of economies. The Japanese, U.S. and European economies will all converge at a pace of about 2 percent later this year or early 2007". He declined to comment on the current level of the yen and its direction. "I won't comment on whether the currency's move is good or bad or stays within a certain range," after being asked about the yen's gain since Oct. 27, when reports showed U.S. economic growth slowed to 1.6 percent in the third quarter. Watanabe said, "The issue of global imbalances will probably be touched on at a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of 20 nations to be held in Melbourne this month, though it won't be a major topic. Financial leaders probably won't come up with solutions to global imbalances or lopsided flows of funds and exports in the world economy". Given the strong resolve and strong numbers that Japan has produced, there seems to be overwhelming opinion that Japan's currency will remain if not increase against the majors and especially the US Dollar. The Yen gained a little today against the US Dollar in otherwise tight trading ranges. These strong opinions about the Yen value has lead many traders to look for a further Yen bull market. It appears that most experts have become comfortable with a stronger yen and a longer term bearish US Dollar. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Modest Gains For The Dollar Yesterday

Modest gains for the Dollar yesterday were immediately given back to the market today, based on another round of poor U.S. data. Business productivity for the 3rd quarter showed no growth at all, and labor costs increased more than expected. Read More.....


Pop Corn: Grain futures look to be among the hot markets going into 2007, with Corn futures among the leaders. This high volume contract with ample liquidity has become the darling of commodity funds, who currently hold a net-long position totaling nearly 300,000 contracts. Read More....

Markets To Watch

Crude Oil: December Crude Oil contracts are lower in early trading, continuing recent weakness. This morning’s weakness comes in the wake of inventory data that showed an increase of U.S. supplies. OPEC did begin its long-awaited production cuts yesterday, but the market is still waiting for confirmation from the smaller members of the cartel on their willingness to cut production. December Crude Oil futures are currently trading down 68 cents at $58.03 a barrel.

Soybeans: January Soybean futures ended the overnight session with solid gains, continuing yesterday’s rally. January Soybean futures rallied to new contract highs yesterday, as speculative buyers returned to the forefront to re-ignite the upside momentum the market has seen in recent weeks. On Wednesday, January Soybeans gained 14 cents, to settle at $658.25 a bushel. January Soybeans ended the overnight session up another 7 ½ cents at $665.75 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures have fallen into negative territory, reversing early gains. The sell-off came in the wake of disappointing productivity data. The Labor Department reported that productivity for the 3rd Quarter was unchanged (consensus 1.1%), and unit labor costs rose 3.8% (consensus 3.5%). This data is likely to raise inflation concerns at the Federal Reserve. The Fed has left interest rates unchanged the previous three meetings, giving a pause to 17 straight rate increases. This morning’s drop in futures is leading to a continuation of yesterday’s steep declines. On Wednesday, the December S&P 500 futures fell 10.30, to settle at 1372.90. December S&P 500 futures are trading down 3.90 at 1369.00 in pre-market trading.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Bean Breakdown Ahead!

Soybean futures have done a decent job of late, competing for acreage from its soaring competitors Wheat and Corn. Now that the grain complex has become overbought, the Soybean market might be moving back to the bear camp. Yesterday's first notice day for the November contract saw 1,861 delivery notices issued, which was on the high side of traders' expectations. Read More....