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Friday, November 17, 2006

El Nino Blows Away Crude Support

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading lower on warm U.S. weather and OPEC skepticism. Crude Oil has fallen near a 17-month low, as warm weather continues to decrease heating demands in the Northeast U.S. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center announced yesterday that it expects a mild winter for the Northern regions of the U.S., as an El Nino weather pattern persists. A strong El Nino typically brings mild winters to the Northern U.S. by altering storm tracks and creating unusual weather patterns. Yesterday, January Crude Oil futures fell $2.14, to settle at $58.57 a barrel. Traders also remain skeptical that OPEC will meet pledges to reduce production. January Crude Oil futures are currently trading down 40 cents at $58.17 a barrel.

Wheat: December Wheat futures ended the overnight session slightly higher. This morning’s early gains come in the wake of a sharp sell-off yesterday. December Wheat futures at the CBOT lost 12 ¾ cents yesterday, to settle at $468.75 a bushel. Disappointing export sales and technical weakness in Corn were credited with the weakness. Weather outlooks remain moderate in the U.S., while China continues to look dry. There is some indication, however, that key areas in China growing areas will receive rain next weekend. December Wheat Futures on the eCBOT ended the overnight session up 1 ¼ cents at $470.00 a bushel.

S&P: December S&P 500 futures are trading lower in early trading. Disappointing data on Housing Starts and Building Permits are behind the early weakness. Housing Starts fell 14.6% in October to 1.49 million units (consensus 1.68 million). Building Permits fell 6.3% to 1.54 million units (consensus 1.63 million). This was the lowest reading on Housing Starts since July 2000, and it was the lowest reading on Building Permits in almost a decade. This morning’s data has stoked early concerns that rising interest rates have slowed the economy. Profit-taking after five straight days of gains is also lending to the early selling effort. December S&P 500 futures are trading down 4.10 at 1401.00 in pre-market trading.