FX Closing Comments

The Dollar was mixed to close-out the week. A combination of acceptable data (personal income, personal consumption, and PCE deflator) and marginally firm data (Michigan sentiment survey and Chicago PMI index) did little to excite traders. With a lot of uncertainty floating through the market, trade may be choppy in the coming week. The fear of Central banks reallocating reserves, the Iranian nuclear dispute, and possibly even White House political turmoil may weigh on the Dollar in coming sessions

Markets To Watch Today

Silver: Anticipation of Barcly's ETF has been a catalyst propelling Silver to 22-year highs. The SEC has approved a rule change allowing the iShares Silver Trust to list on the AMEX. All that is left is for the SEC to formally approved the shares, which could be done at anytime. May Silver is trading at 11.470 as of 8:00 am CST.

Crude: Crude Oil futures topped the $67 a barrel mark yesterday for the first time in over a month. Concerns over Iran's reaction to the UN statement demanding a halt to its uranium enrichment program remains at the forefront. May Crude is trading at 66.34 as of 8:00 am CST.

Coffee: Coffee made gains of over 5 cents a pound on news of tight supplies reported out of Brazil. Profit taking late in the session minimized those gains. May Coffee is trading at 107.90 as of 8:15 am CST

Grain: The Grain stocks report will be released today. Early indications are bullish for both Corn and Wheat.

EUR/USD: Bullish Break Or Jitters?

Outside factors negatively affected the Dollar yesterday, as the EUR/USD surged past 1.2100, with traders worried about the U.S. current account deficit. Their concerns about a worsening deficit came in response to comments by the governor of the UAE's central bank, who expressed his intent to reallocate a portion of their reserves to Euros (from 2% to 10%). In and of itself, the numbers are unlikely to affect matters, however, if other banks follow suit, the situation could become more problematic. Read More....

Is There Any Stopping Copper?

Is there any stopping Copper? Copper futures once again posted new all-time highs this morning, as continued tight supplies and tremendous speculative interest in the metals complex keep prices buoyant. A breakdown of a mill at Chile's Collahuasi copper mine is expected to cut 7,000 to 8,000 metric tons of production. This news comes on top of a strike at Mexico's La Caridad mine and potential labor unrest at the Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia. Read More....

Coffee Futures Soared Today

Java jumps: Coffee futures soared today, as a surge in commodity prices finally spilled over to the Coffee ring. Commodity funds, speculators, and local traders were all in a buying mood today, overwhelming small amounts of origin selling. May Coffee broke above the downtrend line formed from the January 30 highs. A weak US Dollar and strong buying in commodities in general were also factors in today's rally. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

Outside factors negatively affected the Dollar today, as the EUR/USD surged past 1.2100 with traders worried about the U.S. current account deficit worsening, in response to the UAE's intent to reallocate a portion of their reserves to EUR. Rumors also circulated across trading desks, expressing the fear that Treasury Secretary Snow would be replaced with someone less likely to maintain the administration's "strong Dollar" policy. Increased tension with Iran was also un-helpful to the Greenback. Overnight, watch for Japanese CPI data to shake-up Yen pairs.

Join Us Today At 1:00 PM CST For Our Platform Walkthrough

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

USD/JPY: Sitting On The Fence

The Dollar was soft overnight, though it seems to be perking-up in early U.S. trade. With U.S. Q4 GDP growth revised upwards to 1.7%, underlying strength expectations are being tweaked higher. Weekly jobless claims moderated somewhat to 302k for the most recent week, though the previous figure was revised higher to 312k. Read More....

Crude Oil Futures Show No Signs Of Slowing Down

Crude realities: Once again, Crude Oil futures show no signs of slowing down, with a larger than expected drawdown in Gasoline stocks giving traders another reason to bid-up energy prices. The Department of Energy reported that Gasoline stocks declined by 5.4 million barrels last week. Some of the decline can be contributed to using-up the remaining stocks of Gasoline containing Methyl Tertiary-Butyl Ether, which is being phased out. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Gasoline: Gasoline supplies may be subject to a tightening of supplies, as the phaseout of the MTBE additive is completed. A senate panel is considering halting tariffs in response to the anticipated shortage. As one might expect, domestic ethanol producers are against the loosening of import barriers. April Unleaded futures closed at 1.9592, up 0.0050 on ACCESS overnight trading.

Silver: Silver zoomed past the $11 mark yesterday and is continuing is journey upward today. The Fed's interest rate hike did nothing to slow momentum in the metal. May Silver is trading at 11.440, up 33.5 cents this morning.

World News: The UN Security Council on Wednesday formally approved a statement calling on Iran to suspend uranium enrichment efforts. The text made significant concessions to Russia and China, which were anxious to avoid language that might later be used to press for sanctions against Iran, should it remain defiant. The statement calls on Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the IAEA, to report back on Iran's compliance within 30 days.

Burning Rubber: Rubber Futures On TOCOM On Fire!

Burning Rubber: Rubber futures traded on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) have been in a 15-month long bull market, as investors continue to flock to commodities to hedge against inflation and as an alternative to stocks and bonds. Rubber supplies remain tight, with the winter season approaching. This has led to a cut-back in supplies. Growing demand from China and India have strained the physical market, causing cash prices to rise. Read More....

Join Us Today at 12:00 PM CST For Our Platform Walkthrough

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

GBP/USD The First Quarter

As expected, the Fed raised rates by a quarter-point to 4.75%, making it the 15th consecutive 25 basis-point rise. More importantly, the commentary noted that higher rates may be needed going forward. Yesterday's relatively unguarded statement caught Euro bulls by surprise, and precipitated a Euro sell-off in the face of a brisk Dollar rally. With further rate support implied in the commentary, Fed watchers have set their sites on U.S. rates surpassing 5% during the summer, with the likelihood of a further move in May close to 100%. Read More....

Stocks Topping Out?

Stocks topping out? That is the concern by some analysts and traders, as the stock market adjusts to the possibility of further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve through the third quarter of 2006. The Federal Reserve has raised short-term rates 15 times since June of 2004, and rates currently stand at 4.75%. Earlier this month, traders were beginning to believe that the Fed would be close to an end of the tightening cycle, which should be positive for stock prices. Now the sentiment has shifted, with expectations of 2 or 3 more 25-basis-point increases to the Fed Funds rate into the summer. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Crude: Crude climbs to close above $66 in yesterday's trading. Royal Dutch Shell PLC, which has shut down almost 50% of its Nigerian oil production has stated they will not resume full capacity until the country is safe for its workers. May Crude Oil is trading at $65.92 on the overnight session.

Sugar: Sugar soared on the heels of higher Crude prices. Strong fund participation pushed the contract to new monthly highs. May Sugar is trading at 17.99 as of 8:15 am CST.

Copper: Copper gave back a portion of its recent gains yesterday. The contract continues to trend higher with many anticipating the $2.50 price level. May Copper is trading at $2.4240 as of 8:17 am CST.

More Rate Increases To Come?

More rate increases to come? Once again the Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 4.75%. This was the 15th consecutive increase since June of 2004. Although the increase was expected, the real story of interest to traders was the text statement from the meeting, which implied that "further policy firming may be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance." This implies that the Fed is not finished raising rates, and traders immediately started selling-off Eurodollar and Fed Funds futures contracts. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

There was substantial volatility in many pairs today as the euro-zone and U.S. competed over rate expectations. A very bullish German IFO had traders pondering a more aggressive ECB, which perked-up the Euro until markets settled into a pre-Fed lull. When the Fed raised and then issued a rather hawkish statement, the Dollar quickly made a strong rally against all of the majors. Of secondary importance was a very firm U.S. consumer confidence report (107.2). On the other hand, a key ECB statistic, M3 money supply, was also reported higher than expected, adding support for the view that the ECB is getting ready to raise. It is interesting to note that today's Dollar rally did, however, stop near the 100-day MA in nearly all key pairs (especially relative to the Pound and Yen), which implies continued indecision.

DJ Nybot FCOJ Review: Bulls Charge Higher

Frozen concentrated orange juice futures closed at sharply firmer levels
Tuesday, as speculator buying drove prices within striking distance of the
contract high scored Friday.

The most active May futures climbed 4.00 to $1.4940 per pound on the New York
Board of Trade. July gained 3.05 to $1.4525.

No fresh news was seen behind Tuesday's rally, but analysts noted that the
market successfully shrugged off the minor corrective pullback seen Monday.
FCOJ has been supported for weeks by the second straight Florida growing season
with significant hurricane damage.

May futures rallied to a $1.4990 contract high Friday, before profit-taking tugged prices to a close well below that high that day.

Since late January, May futures have soared from a low at $1.1550 to last week's contract high at $1.4990. Traders and analysts say that the psychologically significant $1.5000 level will likely come under attack short term.

"The major news today was the lack of any producer hedging," noted James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading in Tampa.

FCOJ futures rallied Tuesday in tandem with the broader commodity market. The CRB Index was last up 3.81 at 331.52.

Looking ahead, Mike Zarembski, futures analyst at XPRESSTRADE, reiterated that the fundamental picture remains bullish. He pointed to "lower supplies and concerns about dryness for even the next crop" as key factors that should continue to underpin strength in the FCOJ market.

On the upside, Zarembski pointed to an initial objective at $1.5210 for May and said "that could be taken out this week." Farther out, he highlighted a major target at $1.6100, the January 1992 high.

Futures volume was estimated at 3,232 lots, the exchange said. Options activity included 285 calls and 283 puts.

-Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4072
03-28-06 1419ET

Rough Rice Futures Hit A Speed Bump Yesterday

Wild Rice: The recent rally in Rough Rice futures hit a speed bump yesterday, as speculators decided to book profits. After hitting 3-month lows just over a week ago, May Rice futures have been on a tear rallying over 50 cents the past week. Commercial and speculative buying were behind the recent gains and conversely were behind yesterday's sell-off. Read More....

EUR/USD: Calm Before A Storm?

Monday was a dull day for FX markets, as traders looked forward to today's Fed announcement. Ben Bernanke's first performance after today's FOMC meeting will naturally be the day's key event, though it is unlikely to contain any major revelations. It is thought that his comments will be especially cautious, given the mixed signals currently being emitted by the U.S. economy. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Energies: The CME is poised to introduce its own line of energy products. On June 17th of this year, the Merc's non-compete agreement with Nymex is set to expire. Although no official announcement has been made, look for more information to be released over the next couple of months.

Silver: Silver continues to climb as the market awaits final regulatory approval of Barclay's Silver ETF. Buyers have flooded the market recently in anticipation of the SEC's approval. May Silver is currently trading at 10.895, unchanged as of 8:43 am CST.

Sugar: Sugar prices reached a 3-week high yesterday as traders rolled positions from the May to the July contract. Trade houses and speculative funds continue to support the contract. May Sugar is trading at 17.83, up 0.35 cent as of 8:48 am CST.

Raising Cane: Sugar Leaps To 3-Week Highs Today

Raising Cane: May Sugar leaps to 3-week highs today on strong fund and trade buying. After reaching its recent lows at 16.19 on March 9th, the Sugar market had been caught in a sideways pattern for the past 2 weeks. Friday's rally tipped the market in favor of the bulls and today's sharp gains seemed to have confirmed the recent bullish momentum. The market opened just above the downtrend line formed from the February 3rd contract highs, and set the tone for commodity fund buying. Read More....

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FX Closing Comments

All quiet on the forex front today, as traders look forward to tomorrow's Fed announcement. Ben Bernanke's first performance after an FOMC meeting will naturally be the key event Tuesday, though few expect any major revelations. It is thought that his comments will be especially cautious, given the mixed being emitted by the U.S. economy. Expect his announcement to highlight the "data dependent" nature of any future moves and leave room for future policy adjustments.

NZD/JPY: The End Of Carry Trades?

The main event this week will be the U.S. Fed meeting, Ben Bernanke's first as Chairman. Although markets have priced in a near 100% likelihood of the bank hiking rates for the 15th straight time, it is the commentary that will prove interesting to traders. Last week's mixed housing signals (robust existing home sales, sinking new home sales) will place a special emphasis on the Fed's actions. Read More....

Orange Juice Prices Squeeze Higher

Orange Juice prices squeeze higher: It was a wild ride for Orange Juice traders on Friday, with new contract highs being made early in the morning and a nasty sell-off in the last half hour of the session. When the smoke finally cleared, OJ managed to squeeze out a slight gain. Orange Juice futures have been in a bullish trend since September, when crop diseases such as citrus-greening disease and citrus canker were found in several groves in central Florida. Read More....

Treasuries Rally On Lower New Home Sales

Treasuries rally on lower new home sales: After yesterdays surprising increase in existing home sales, traders were gearing up for another better- than-expected number when the new home sales were announced this morning. They were disappointed! The Commerce department announced that new home sales fell almost 11% in February to an annualized rate of 1.08 million. Most analysts were looking for sales to come in at 1.2 million. Read More....

Dow Jones Report With Mike Zarembski

DJ Nybot FCOJ Review: Profit Taking Knocks Market Off Highs

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Frozen concentrate orange juice futures closed firmer but off of
session
highs, as profit taking hit the market late and pressured prices, sources
said.

May FCOJ on the New York Board of Trade gained 60 points to
$1.4665 a pound,
after reaching a new contract and 14-year high of $1.4990 earlier in the
day on
speculative buying.

"Going into the weekend, I think the bulls had this nice
run-up and some of
them decided to take some profits and call it a week," said Mike
Zarembski,
analyst and futures desk manager at XPRESSTRADE in Chicago.

With prices reaching such high levels, speculative as well as
commercial
sales weighed on the market, he said.

Only a late buying spurt kept prices from posting a technical
reversal, which
could have been a bearish development, Zarembski said.

The market has rallied to new highs in a short time, producing
overbought
conditions, and prices may back off a bit before resuming any uptrend.
The
relative strength index, a technical strength indicator, shot to 82 this
week
as the market gained 650 points from last Friday's close. An RSI of 70 or
above
indicates overbought conditions.

Still, Zarembski and others believe the bullish fundamentals will
keep solid
support underneath the market and prices could trade to yet higher
highs.
Traders may target $1.5210 on May juice, a level not seen since December
1991.
If that is achieved, then $1.61 becomes a target, Zarembski said.

Candlestick charts point to a possible long-legged Doji formation
in Friday's
session, which could be a bearish development for the market. However,
traders
may choose to ignore any bearish technical signals such as the Doji or
high RSI
amid the existence of such powerful fundamentals, an analyst said.

A small Florida crop currently estimated at 154 million, 90-pound
boxes is
the main bullish feature of the market, along with spreading
citrus-greening
disease and citrus canker. Dry weather in Florida, projections for
smaller
crops over the next 15 years and forecasts for an active tropical-storm
season
this year also have been supportive for FCOJ prices.

Meanwhile, scattered showers did fall over some Florida growing
areas
Thursday, though amounts were 0.10-0.50 inch, DTN Meteorlogix said. Dry
weather
is expected Friday through Tuesday, with below-normal temperatures
Sunday
through Tuesday.

At the Nybot, FCOJ open interest on Thursday rose 310 to 37,830
positions.

FCOJ futures volume was estimated at 6,404 contracts Friday, with
1,391 calls
and 967 put options traded.

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar gave back yesterday's gains, especially in the Euro and Pound, largely in response to this morning's week new home sales data. Dollar bulls came to the fore on Thursday, emboldened by surprisingly strong existing home sales. Today, however, the mood soured with a 10% dip in new home sales for February. Interest rate expectations were tamed somewhat, with the result being a Dollar sell-off, and some modest gains for equities.

Markets To Watch Today

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices climbed as supply concerns remain heading into the summer heavy driving season. The market is also gearing up for the upcoming Hurricane season. May Crude is currently trading at 64.10, up 19 cents on the open.

Copper: Copper rose as strong numbers were reported in US home sales yesterday. Lower warehouse stocks helped contribute to the rally. April High Grade Copper is trading at 2.3940 as of 9 am CST.

Silver: Silver continues to rise on the hopes of SEC approval of a new ETF. The fund has been listed on the American Stock Exchange. May Silver is currently trading at 10.74 as of 9am CST.

Cattle Traders Await Today's Cattle On Feed Report

Cattle traders await today's Cattle on Feed report: Live Cattle futures have been mired in a 2-month long slump, as competition from cheap pork and poultry prices, and a continued ban of US exports to Japan and South Korea have kept market bears in control. The last week has seen prices start to stabilize, with speculators booking profits ahead of today's Cattle on Feed report to be released at 2 pm Chicago time. Cattle on feed as of March 1st are expected to come in around 107.0, with Cattle place in February at 102.5, and marketed in February at 98.0. Read More....

AUD/USD New Range

The big story yesterday was the U.S. existing home sales figure, which came in 5.2% higher than the previous month. This was the steepest rise in 2-year and seems to have quashed, for the time being, worries of a slacking housing market. Although markets will be looking forward to this morning's companion new home figure, the existing home figure bodes well for consumer spending, and in turn, overall growth. As a result, the Dollar rose across the board. Read More....

May Silver Hit 24-Year Highs Today

Traders cannot get enough Silver: May Silver hit 24-year highs today, as traders anticipate increased interest in the shiny metal from investors after the SEC decided to allow Barclays to offer a Silver ETF to trade on the American Stock Exchange. The exchange traded fund is designed to track the price movement of Silver. It will be backed by physical Silver held in storage. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The big story today was the U.S. existing home sales figure, which came in 5.2% higher than the previous month. This was the steepest rise in 2-year and seems to have quashed, for the time being, worries of slacking housing market. Although markets will be looking forward to tomorrow's follow-up new home figure, the number bodes well for consumer spending, and in turn, growth. The Dollar reacted by rising across the board. Many Dollar pairs are now sitting just above support levels. If the new housing numbers are similarly strong, support/resistance levels could be broached on Friday.

Join Us Today At 1:00 PM CST For A Walk Through Our Site

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

AUD/NZD Taking A Breather

FX pairs have been subdued in recent sessions in the absence of any eye-raising data. The next major event will be Tuesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, although that, too, looks set for another standard .25% increase. Futures markets are pricing-in a near 100% likelihood of another quarter-percentage move to 4.75%. Read More....

VIX Futures Set New Single-Day Trading Volume Record

Yesterday, March 22, 2006, The CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE) announced that trading volume for futures had hit a new single day high for the Volatility Index (VIX). 8,285 contracts traded yesterday reaching a new all-time high, passing the previous high of 4,604 contracts, which was set on January 31,2006. At the opening of trading yesterday, the VIX had 21,139 in open interest.

February was also a big month for the VIX as well, reaching a total of 17,720 contracts traded for the month, making February the second busiest month ever. By the end of month, open interest stood at 19,819 contracts.

The VIX Index is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P stock index option prices. Since its introduction in 1993, VIX has been considered by many to be the world's premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility. Also, since volatility often signifies financial turmoil, VIX is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge.?

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Available Trading Months: Primary trading months for VIX futures are May, June, August and November.
Final Settlement: Cash Settled

Bullish Gasoline Traders Get Burned

FERC ruling burns bullish Gasoline traders: Lead month April Unleaded Gasoline futures posted their largest 1-day loss of the year, as bullish traders were caught by surprise by a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) directive to allow Colonial Pipeline Co. to continue to ship gasoline containing methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), an additive that is being phased out in the coming months. This will help to increase supplies of Gasoline that will be deliverable against the NYMEX April Harbor-Unleaded Gasoline contract. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Soybeans: Soybeans made a slight gain yesterday as speculative buyers acted on concerns of a reduced Brazilian crop estimate. Sellers dominated the overnight market. May Soybeans closed at 575.25 in overnight trading.


Crude Oil: Crude Oil inventories suffered a small draw down, to the tune of 1.3 million barrels. This was not enough of a drain to prevent a massive selloff in Gasoline to drag the price down. Both contracts are trading higher on the overnight. May Crude Oil is trading at 62.44 as of 8:17 am CST.


Market Info: NYMEX has seen its value rise nearly 75%, to $5.6 billion during pre-IPO trading. NYMEX members were issued 90,000 share per seat and are allowed to trade those shares prior to the IPO. A seat on the exchange last traded for $3.9 million on March 13.

Bulls Get Roasted

Bulls get roasted, as Coffee prices hit 3-month lows: Coffee futures fell to the lowest levels since December, as origin and local selling set-off speculative sell-stops. The stops were found when the most-active May contract broke through 104.70 and 104.40. Prices plunged all the way to 103.50, when roaster buying emerged, capping further losses. The futures market continues to ignore tight supplies in Brazil, where stocks on hand are just enough to meet domestic demand, until supplies from this year's harvest come in. However, traders note that this year's crop should be much larger than last year's, helping to meet stronger demand in the coming year. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar was mildly strong today, making small gains against other major currencies. With the absence of any U.S. data, traders were mulling over the large dip in the eurozone's trade balance and industrial orders. Tomorrow will bring us weekly jobless claims and existing home sales data for February. The jobless claims figure may be looked at more closely this week, as it has been rising in recent weeks, which may become worrisome if the trend continues. Existing home sales are expected at 6,430,000 thru February on an annual basis.

Join Us Today At Noon CST For A Walk Through Our Site!

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

Bullish Dollar On Hawkish Comments By Bernanke

Dollar sentiment remained bullish through the day on Tuesday, largely in response to hawkish comments that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made on Monday night to the Economic Club of New York. Fed watchers are noting a change in style with Mr. Bernanke, based on the opening disclosure to his presentation, "The views I will express are my own and are not necessarily shared by my colleagues on the Federal Open Markets Committee." (FT) Read More....

Has Gold Lost Its Luster?

Is Gold losing is luster? Gold traders are eagerly awaiting the next move for the yellow metal, as the market has moved into a consolidation phase. Prices have settled into a $16 dollar range the past several days, with physical selling seen above $560 and commercial buying below $540. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Orange Juice: Orange Juice climbed above 14 year highs yesterday as a study was released indicating the Florida citrus industry may fall victim to citrus greening, citrus canker and urban development over the next 15 years. A forecast for a heavy hurricane season also contributed to higher prices. May Orange Juice closed at 1.4300 up 3.7 cents for the session.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil futures for the month of April expired yesterday, settling at $60.57. A rally in Heating Oil seemed was the catalyst in keeping Crude above the $60 support level. The EIA Energy stocks report will be released shortly. The new front month May contract is currently trading at $62.18.

Dollar: The Dollar got a boost on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the release of a report that revealed increasing inflationary pressure on the US economy. The June Dollar Index is trading at 89.31, up .05 in this morning's trading.

Cyclone Larry whips up Sugar prices!

May Sugar futures posted 2-week highs today, as Tropical Cyclone Larry, a category 5 storm, hit the northeast part of Australia yesterday, causing major damage to the country's sugar industry. There are estimates that up to 10% of the countries sugar production may be lost due to storm damage, with 25% of the nations cane fields affected. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

Dollar sentiment remained bullish through the day, largely in response to hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last night. The PPI data from this morning was mixed with the headline number falling (due to slipping fuel and food prices) and the core number rising moderately by .3% over the previous month. Early tomorrow we'll receive the last BofE minutes, as well as euzo-zone industrial production and trade figures.

EXECUTION VS. CONFIRMATION

Though the futures industry continues to move toward more electronic trading, many important commodity futures continue to trade in the traditional, open-outcry pits. A few examples of hot commodities trading primarily – or even exclusively – in the old-fashioned pits include gold, crude oil, silver, copper, coffee, and sugar.

Happily, technology has helped improve the routing of orders to and from the trading pits – in fact, a good number of orders can be sent directly to electronic devices operated by floor brokers standing right smack in the middle of the action. But the inescapable fact is that human beings ultimately are executing the orders. And in periods of heavy volume or extreme volatility, these folks can quickly become overwhelmed. Whereas you might have a confirmed fill in a second or less when trading a fully-electronic product like the E-mini S&P, the process may take considerably longer in an open-outcry market. As a trader, you have to be aware of this and set your expectations accordingly.

Any good brokerage firm understands that few things in life are more agonizing for a trader than to wait for what seems like an eternity for a fill confirmation. This is just as frustrating for us as it is for you. We understand the importance of speed, we’re pushing as hard as we can for your fills, and we know that quicker confirmations make you more likely to trade more. I’m even aware of at least one futures broker that’s developed an automated system to continuously scan customer orders and market data. When it identifies any order in an open-outcry market that should have been executed, it mercilessly pesters the trading floors until a confirmed fill has been received.

So, why can’t this problem of slow fills in open-outcry markets be solved once and for all? The main reason is that this is a problem at the exchange level. Until the exchanges do away with hopelessly outdated pit-style trading, this will be a challenge with which every futures broker will have to struggle. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that in most cases, floor brokers don’t work for us – they’re independent contractors who handle orders from a number of brokerage companies – and in many pits, the truth of the matter is that there isn’t a particularly wide selection of floor brokers from whom to choose. Even if we spot a floor broker who appears to be consistently slow in reporting fills, we often have few alternatives.

There’s one bit of good news, however – which most traders don’t seem to realize – and this is the distinction that’s drawn between order execution and fill reporting. Even during the busiest market conditions, there's typically very little delay in getting your order to the trading pit and executing it in a timely manner. Floor brokers standing in the trading pits give their immediate attention to filling orders, and fills are reported as time allows. This is a crucial point worth repeating: Your orders in open-outcry pits are almost always executed in a very timely manner, even if the fill reports might occasionally be delayed.

Dollar Gaining Strength Off Of Bernanke Comments

The Dollar is drawing some strength from yesterday's comments from Ben Bernanke, who painted a rosy view of the overall U.S. economy and its growth prospects. His comments bolstered interest expectations in the U.S., which are now seen as safely passing the 5% mark, and peaking somewhere north of 5.5% in the 2 nd half. Read More....

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Bulls And Bears Battle For Control in Crude Oil

Bulls and bears battle for control of Crude Oil: May Crude Oil posted its largest 1-day decline in months, as traders shifted focus from civil unrest in Nigeria to surging domestic Crude inventories. Attacks by Nigerian rebels on an oil pipeline owned by the Italian firm Eni SpA has taken an estimated 65,000 barrels out of Nigerian Oil production. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today!

Crude Oil: Crude Oil gives up over $2 a barrel as massive inventory buildups begin to outweigh supply disruptions. Today is the last trading day for the April Contract. The May contract is trading at 61.81 as of 7:57 am CST.

Wheat: Wheat futures lost over 7 cents yesterday as fresh rains give life to a very dry Central US. May Chicago Wheat closed at 3.50 1/4, down 7 1/4 while May KC Wheat closed at 4.13 3/4, down 7 3/4.

Dollar: The Dollar made some gains yesterday as new Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke gave a speech to the Economics Club of New York. The dollar rose versus the yen and the euro.

Wheat Retreats!

Wheat retreats! Precipitation, in the form of rain and snow, fell in the Great Plains over the weekend, bringing much needed moisture to new-crop Wheat, helping pull prices towards six-week lows. Wheat prices were in a 3-month long bull-trend, as concerns about dry weather in Kansas and Oklahoma sent July Wheat to $4 per bushel just 10 days ago. How things have changed! New-crop futures have dropped over 40 cents in the past several sessions, as timely rains and weak export prospects have bulls on the defensive. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

FX pairs, especially Dollar pairs, kept to tight ranges today. In the absence of any significant U.S. data, the market was left to ponder hawkish commentary from both the ECB and U.S. Fed. The effect was deadlock. Tomorrow will bring us February producer prices, which are expected to be tame at .2% for both the overall and core number.

GBP/JPY Big Move Below 100-Day

With the absence of any U.S. data on the calendar, it seems that today's action may center on competing rhetoric from major central banks. Earlier today, analysts followed hawkish commentary by the ECB's Trichet and Issing, which contributed to an early European rally for the Euro. The bank is concerned about the rising liquidity levels in their banking system, something that the ECB follows more closely than the Fed. Read More....

Orange Juice Squeezes To New Highs

Orange Juice squeezes to new highs: Bullish speculators have discovered the Orange Juice futures market, driving prices to highs not seen since 1992 when lead month OJ hit 142.90. The run to new contract highs comes after the USDA lowered the new-crop estimate 4 million boxes to 154 million boxes. This is the second year of below normal yields for the Florida crop, as storm damage and disease has taken its toll on Florida citrus production. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Dollar: The dollar is expected to be on the defensive this week on the heels of a record trade deficit and last week's bearish economic numbers. Anticipation of further rate-raising to come out of the March 28th FOMC meeting keeps bears in line. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is scheduled to speak today and will likely give us clues to future action. The June Dollar Index is trading at 88.72, up .19 as of 8:26 am CST.

Indexes: Commodity-Index traders are likely to be disappointed if they expect returns similar to last year's record numbers. The Goldman Sax Commodity Index has lost over 10% in the month of February. The June GSCI is trading at 440, unchanged for the today's session.

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar levelled-off on Friday, ending mixed against the other majors (up against the Pound and Franc. Down against the Euro and Yen). For the most part, major pairs kept to tight ranges to end the week. Friday's data was uneventful with Industrial production up slightly more than expected and the Michigan confidence survey reported in line with forecasts. Next week has a thin calendar in the U.S., with the most significant release being Friday's durable good report. Tuesday's PPI data also has the potential to shake things up, if it is surprisingly high.

Copper Hits A New Record High

Copper hits a new record high: Metal mania continues in the Copper market, as the most-active May futures hit a new all-time high today. Fund buying was evident in both New York and London, as a weaker US Dollar and continued tight supplies are keeping the bulls in charge. Read More....

EUR/USD Near Short Term Resistance

The Dollar remained soft yesterday in the face of rising jobless claims and tame inflation numbers. February's consumer price data, at .1% for both top-line and core inflation, does not bode well for additional Fed moves, which are predicted to peak near 5% (currently 4.5%). Read More....

Bears Gain Control Of The Grain Market

Bears gain control of Bean market: May Soybeans closed at 2-month lows yesterday, as commodity funds and smaller speculative accounts sold the market. Improved soil moisture, weak Chinese imports, and large South American supplies were all cited as reasons for the recent sell-off. Read More....

Juiced up!

That is what traders long Orange Juice futures are feeling, as a new contract high was made today. May futures traded as high as 138.70, just short of the March 1996 highs at 138.75. Speculative buying was the main feature today, with commodity funds and small speculators bidding-up the market. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar continued soft today in the face of rising jobless claims and tame inflation numbers. Today's consumer price data, at .1% for both top-line and core inflation, does not bode well for additional Fed moves, which are predicted to peak near 5% (currently 4.5%). On the other side of the equation, euro-zone inflation was significantly higher than expected, which increases the likelihood of additional higher moves from the ECB. In Britain, their key retail sales data was surprisingly firm, which helped prop-op Sterling and take advantage of this week's stumbling Dollar.

Good Week For The Pound

The Dollar remained under pressure yesterday, as the Treasury's capital inflow report was unveiled. For January, capital flows in the U.S. totaled $66b, which was slightly better than December's $56.6, but still not enough to match the trade deficit for January, which was $68.5b. Read More....

Silver Shines Bright In Investors Eyes

Silver shines bright in investors eyes: Silver prices made new contract highs today, as a rise in Silver mining shares and hopes for approval by US regulators of a new Silver backed ETF sent prices to 22-year highs. Speculative buy stops were resting just above the previous highs at 10.31,which when triggered, sent priced soaring. Read More....

Dow Jones FCOJ Review with XPRESSTRADE Futures Analyst, Mike Zarembski

May frozen concentrated orange juice futures closed higher Wednesday on light
speculative buying in an overall thinly traded market. Positive technicals and
a small Florida crop supported the gains, sources said.

Most-active May FCOJ gained 125 points to $1.3555 a pound on the New York
Board of Trade.

"It was one of the quietest days we've seen in a long time," said Mike
Zarembski, analyst and futures desk trader at XPRESSTRADE.com in Chicago.

Technicals were at play more than anything else in the market, which
accounted for the spec buying.

"They tried to test that $1.32 level on the May contract yesterday (Tuesday)
and the 20-day moving average comes in right there. When they couldn't push it
through there the specs took it higher and we had a little follow-through
buying today (Wednesday) as well," he said.

While the market looks like it wants to continue higher, Zarembski said the
market needs some trade buying "to really push us over the top."

While the market may see some backing and filling action in the near term,
prices remain supported by a small Florida orange crop, which the U.S.
Department of Agriculture revised lower last week to 154 million, 90-pound
boxes, from 158 million in February.

Some traders say the crop estimate could be revised lower still in the next
month or two.

Meanwhile, Florida's northern citrus-growing saw scattered showers and
thunderstorms overnight with 0.20-0.50 inch of rain. Mostly dry conditions are
seen Wednesday and Thursday, with a few light showers possible Friday, DTN
Meteorlogix said. Dry conditions will return on Saturday with scattered showers
developing on Sunday.

At the Nybot, total FCOJ open interest on Tuesday fell 46 to 36,270
contracts, indicating the recent gains came mostly on short-covering.

Technical support on May is uncovered at $1.3200, $1.3110, $1.2960 and the
gap area that runs from $1.2640-$1.2575. Resistance is met at $1.3650, the
$1.3770 contract high, the April 1996 $1.3850 high, $1.3875 and the May 1992
high of $1.4290.

At the Nybot, FCOJ futures volume was estimated at 1,348 contracts, with 777
calls and 410 put options traded.


Close Change Range
May 1.3555 up 125 1.3330-1.3600
July 1.3330 up 90 1.3130-1.3350
-By Tom Sellen; Dow Jones Newswires

Cocoa Climbs: May Cocoa Gapped Higher Today!

Cocoa climbs: May Cocoa gapped higher today, as strong buying in London and a weak US Dollar gave bulls the upper hand. Trade buying was responsible for the rally in London and the momentum followed through to New York. Fund buying was noted from the start, as the market moved above the 20-day moving average, which momentum traders consider bullish. Local traders were caught short the market, helping push prices higher. Cocoa was one of the leaders in today's "softs" rally, along with Coffee and Sugar. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar remained under pressure today, as the Treasury's capital inflow report was unveiled. For January, capital flows in the U.S. totalled $66b, which was slightly better than December's $56.6, but still not enough to match the trade deficit for January, which was $68.5b. This marks the 2nd straight month were inflows did not match the trade deficit. This is widely felt to be Dollar negative news. Concerns that U.S. equity markets may be peaking may have contributed to the recent dip in inflows.

Tomorrow may see some volatility in the Pound, as their crucial retail sales report is due early in the day. The U.S. data includes housing starts, building permits, and CPI. Building permits may be soft after January's large gain, which was credited to the unseasonable warm weather. Written by Mark Smyth

Join Us Today At 12PM Noon CST For Our Platform Walkthrough Of XPRESSTRADE!

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

EUR/USD Still Choppy

Yesterday it was the "twin deficit" concern that gave the Dollar a spook and sent both the Pound and Euro higher. After it was reported that 2005 marked an all-time high for the current account deficit ($804.9b), other news stories appeared highlighting Fed Chairman Bernanke's concerns about the size of the federal budget deficit. Giving additional backing to the Bernanke's point of view were comments from the head of the General Accounting Office, who said that the U.S. budget deficit was "imprudently high," adding that the US financial position was worse than the government thinks. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Unleaded: Gasoline Futures climbed 7% yesterday on news of a refinery outage as peak driving season draws near. Refineries are currently in spring cleaning and maintenance mode adding to inventory concerns. April Unleaded closed at 1.8660, up 12.27 cents for the session.

Cattle: Cattle prices fell yesterday, influenced by losses in pork futures. April Live Cattle closed at 83.10, down 0.52 for the session.

Kansas City: Kansas City Wheat prices fell hard for the 2nd straight day hitting a low for the month. May Kansas City Wheat closed at 4.23 3/4, down 11 cents for the session.

Lead Month Gasoline Futures Continue To Soar

Fuel for thought: Lead month Gasoline futures continue to soar, with April Unleaded Gasoline up 7% yesterday, on word that one of the largest Gasoline-production units in the Western Hemisphere would be shut down for between 10 to 14 days. The unit is owned by Hovensa LLC, located in the US Virgin Islands. This particular refinery supplies a significant amount of fuel to New York Harbor, which is the delivery point for the NYMEX Gasoline contract. Read More....

No Bull! Bears in control of the Cattle market

April Live Cattle futures made new "trading pit" lows today, as a Japanese newspaper reported that the Japanese government is still unclear on when to resume US beef imports. This occurred because a case of mad-cow disease was confirmed on a 10-year old beef cow in Alabama. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

Today it was the "twin deficit" concern that gave the Dollar a spook and sent both the Pound and Euro higher. After it was reported that 2005 marked an all-time high for the current account deficit ($804.9b), stories appeared that highlighted Fed Chairman Bernanke's concerns about the size of the federal budget deficit. Adding to the Chairman's point of view were comments from the head of the General Accounting Office, who said that the USD budget deficit was "imprudently high," adding that the US financial position was worse than the government thinks.

Additional poor sentiment may continue tomorrow when the Treasury inflow data is released. With January's record trade deficit standing at $68.5b, analysts will be looking for something higher. As last month's inflow number was $56.6b, the signs are not especially promising.

NZD/JPY-Strong Downtrend

In the absence of much U.S. data yesterday, the Dollar did little except regain some of its small, early losses. Outside factors, including continued tension with Iran and concern over the UAE's rumblings about allocating an additional 10% of their reserves into Euros, may be playing a small role. Today's data is also unlikely to provide much optimism, though the ambivalent data is being shared with Europe, were Germany's high-flying ZEW confidence index slipped to 63.4 from last month's 69.8. Read More....

Crude Oil Futures Are Caught In A Conundrum

Oil as a weapon: Crude Oil futures are caught in a conundrum. First, Oil and Gasoline stocks in the US are at the highest levels in nearly seven years, as high prices have finally helped to curb demand. However, prices refuse to stay below $60 per barrel, as political concerns in Iran and Nigeria have traders fearing possible supply disruptions. Just yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that Iran "will not use Oil as a foreign policy instrument", but later cautioned that Iran could use its role as the number two OPEC Oil producer as a political weapon if the UN imposes sanctions on the country for its nuclear ambitions. Read More...

Markets To Watch Today

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished mixed yesterday as traders await the results of USDA tests for possible mad cow disease found on an Alabama farm. April Live Cattle closed at 83.62, up .17 for the session.


Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices jumped as Iran announced a change in its position relating to retaliation for any infringement on its right to pursue nuclear technology. The country's threats caused April Crude to close at 61.77, up 1.81 for the session.


Kansas City Wheat: Kansas City Wheat prices fell as forecasts for rain are expected to help the very dry areas of the central US plains. March KC Wheat closed at 428, down 18.50 for the session.

CBOT Introduces All-Electronic Gold Options

We're pleased to announce the launch of Chicago Board of Trade options on gold futures. This new product represents an extension of the CBOT Precious Metals Complex, which includes 100-Ounce Gold futures (symbol: ZG), Mini-Sized Gold futures (symbol: XK), 5,000-Ounce Silver futures (symbol: ZI), and Mini-Sized Silver (symbol: XY) futures. All CBOT precious metals contracts, including the new gold options, are traded exclusively on the eCBOT electronic trading platform. This stands in direct contrast to metal futures and options at COMEX, which continue to trade in traditional, open-outcry pits.

Here is a summary of the benefits of trading these new gold options:

• Speed: 100% electronic market, with near instantaneous trade execution and fill confirmations
• Availability: Non-stop trading from 6:18 PM CST (GMT -0600) until 4:00 PM the following day
• Liquidity: Designated electronic market makers ensure a continuous, two-sided trading market

The CBOT has decided to compete directly against the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, and thus far is having some success in winning market share. Last week, for example, CBOT gold futures traded between 11,000 and 16,000 contracts per day, representing as much as 18% of the volume in 100-Ounce Gold futures trading. As more traders discover these CBOT metal futures -- and enjoy the benefits of all-electronic trading -- we expect the CBOT products to gain even more share.

For more information about these products, please don't hesitate to contact XPRESSTRADE customer service at 1.800.947.6228, 24 hours per day during the trading week. We're here to help you in any way that we can!

FX Closing Comments

With little data on the U.S. calendar today, the Dollar did little except regain some of its small, early losses. Outside factors, which may be contributing to Dollar softness include continued tension with Iran and concern over the UAE's decision to allocate an additional 10% of their reserves into Euros in the wake of the contentious port deal. Tomorrow is likely to be a busier day with Japanese Industrial production figures due, the German ZEW index,and a slew of U.S. data, including retail sales and the Q4 current account number.

Rain In The Plains Sends Wheat Prices Down The Drain

Rain in the Plains sends Wheat prices down the drain: The weather market has begun for Wheat futures, as good weekend rains in the Great Plains and forecasts for additional precipitation later this week sent prices sharply lower. Today's sell-off came after the new-crop Soft-Red Winter July futures reached contract highs of 400 on Friday. July Wheat futures had been in a solid up-trend recently, as a warmer and drier than normal winter had traders concerned about the condition of this year's crop. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Cocoa: Cocoa is trading lower on speculative selling. London Cocoa finished the session down and news of negotiations on a new Cocoa plant in Ghana is a having bearish influence. The most active May contract is trading at 1461, down 10 for the session.


Sugar: Sugar is down this morning as speculators seem to be liquidating long positions. The estimates for the Brazilian crop production have been increased as traders feel out the impact of the U.S.-Central American Free Trade Agreement. May Sugar is trading at 1659, down 9 for the session.


Crude Oil: Crude Oil is up on the open as concerns about potential oil-supply disruptions trumping substantial US petroleum-inventory levels. Traders are keeping a close eye on situations in Iran and Nigeria. April Crude is trading at 6050, up 54 for the session.

The Entire Livestock Complex Is Caught In A Slump

Pork predictions: The entire livestock complex is caught in a slump, and Lean Hogs are no exception. A warmer then normal winter in the Midwest allowed hog weights to stabilize, resulting in increased usable output per animal. This comes at a time when both beef and poultry prices are falling, providing solid competition for pork consumers. However, the futures market has taken these factors into account, with the most active April contract at a substantial discount to the CME Lean Hog index. Read More....

Loonie On The Cusp

FX Pairs were tame to begin the week in Asia and Europe. With a fairly heavy calendar ahead, these smooth conditions may not hold, as this week will bring February's retails sales data, the Treasury's capital inflow data, as well as Germany's ZEW index. The Treasury data is potentially the most important, as strong foreign capital flows might help alleviate the deficit jitters that re-surfaced last week in the face January's record trade deficit. Read More....

Bear Hunting

Bear hunting: The bear trap was sprung in Soybean futures today, as bullish traders jumped all over today's lower opening to send prices higher. Initial calls for a 2 to 4 cent lower opening turned into an8 cent decline, as the USDA raised its ending stocks forecast for Soybeans by 10 million bushels, to a record 565 million bushels. Lower exports were to blame for the increase, as increased Chinese Soybean production should cut into US Bean exports. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

After this morning's NFP number, which showed 243,000 new jobs in February, the Dollar was characteristically volatile throughout the morning. The greenback did not, however, sustain any real momentum and ended the day virtually unchanged. Next week will bring February's retails sales data and the Treasury's capital inflow data. Strong foreign capital flows will help alleviate the deficit concerns that have re-surfaced this week in the face January's record trade deficit.

Markets To Watch Today

Unleaded: Gasoline futures explode causing hedgers to deal with extreme volatility during this transitional period. The traditional 22-year old Unleaded contract will be phased out and replaced with a new one based on Oxygen blending. The April unleaded contract closed at 1.7201, up 0.0699 for the session.

Silver: Silver rose yesterday as bargain hunters entered the market and it looks like they are exiting today. May Silver is trading at 9.780, down 18 cents as of 8:38 am CST.

Corn: Corn made modest gains yesterday on supportive export numbers. Some positioning was being made ahead of today's Supply and Demand report. May Corn closed at 232, up 4 for the session.

GBP/USD Keeping Sideways

The key number this morning is the U.S. non-farm payroll number, which came in at 243,000 for February, with the jobless rate rising to 4.8%. Taking into account some downward revision to last month's figure, today's number is just about on-target. After yesterday's record trade deficit, today we will learn about the other twin to the U.S. "twin deficits", the USD Treasury Budget for February, which is expected to show a shortfall of $118b. Read More....

There Was Something For Everyone In Today's Unemployment Report

Non-Farm payroll highlights: There was something for everyone in today's unemployment report. Non-farm payrolls rose by 243,000 jobs in February, slightly above average analysts' expectations of a rise of 220,000 jobs. However, the Labor Department revised downward January's figures to 170,000 jobs from 193,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly gaining 0.1% to 4.8%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3%. Read More....

Copper climbs!

After three days of declines, Copper futures bounced back, just touching the 20-day moving average. Speculators were eager buyers this morning throughout the metals complex, as bargain hunters took advantage of the recent declines to add to existing long positions. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

Although some negative U.S. data was released early in the session, the Dollar was largely unmoved. With the key non-farm payroll figure due tomorrow morning, most traders are wanting to see the big number before placing large orders. Expectations are calling for 225,000 new jobs. A big move higher could counter some of the recent soft news. A substantially soft number could add to recent bad news (record trade deficit and a high weekly jobless claims report) and put pressure on the greenback. The February Treasury deficit number is also due. It could be a volatile day tomorrow...

Is Sugar Still Sweet

Hits 25-Year High, Then Corrects

Sugar futures at the New York Board of Trade recently reached their loftiest levels in a quarter century, but recently have traded lower, as commodity funds closed out profitable long positions and sold ahead of today’s March Sugar expiration.

Let’s be careful not to lose sight of the bigger picture. Sugar has been in the midst of a powerful bull market since early 2004, and there are a number of factors supporting prices and driving the market higher, not least of which is a growing recognition that Sugar is becoming an energy crop, and not simply a food crop.

Will Sugar futures move higher or lower in the months ahead? That’s for individual traders to decide, after considering all available technical and fundamental information, but it’s important to be aware of the new relationship between energy prices and Sugar futures. More and more traders are coming to see a direct linkage between the price of Crude Oil and the price of Sugar.

Sugar and the Rise of Ethanol

Call it a different kind of sugar high, said a recent Wall Street Journal article. Many people think of sugar as little more than an ingredient in foods like pies and candy bars. But many savvy traders and investors, like hedge funds, are betting that more sugar will soon be needed for another reason: To produce ethanol, the increasingly popular fuel substitute that can be mixed with gasoline to power automobiles. As oil prices continue to climb higher, many traders believe, demand for ethanol could soar, and sugar, as an important component in ethanol production, could benefit, too.

Ethanol is an alcohol that can be derived from a variety of commodities, including corn, cane sugar, and sugar beets. It’s attractive for reasons that go beyond the high price of oil. Environmental concerns, for example, make ethanol an interesting option, because when mixed with gasoline, it produces a fuel that is relatively more clan burning (biodiesel is a different but related fuel, and is made from vegetable oils such as processed palm oil.)

Geopolitical issues also have put ethanol in the spotlight. For instance, in his State of the Union speech, President Bush called for more ethanol investment to help reduce oil imports from the Middle East, though his plan focused primarily on using agricultural waste (such as plant stalks and wheat straw) in the production process, rather than commodities such as sugar or corn. The goal is to reduce the U.S.’ reliance on Middle East countries that supply oil but which do not share U.S. values, interests, or strategic goals and which, in some cases, are openly adversarial toward the U.S.

The Brazilian Example

Brazil, the largest sugar exporter and the world leader in ethanol production, is diverting about 52% of its sugar-cane crop to ethanol, up from about 48% in 2003, according to the International Sugar Organization. In Thailand, the world’s fourth-largest sugar exporter, government officials aim to replace some types of regular gasoline with ethanol-based blends by 2007. Local sugar-industry leaders are calling on farmers to increase cane production to about 80 million tons or more a year by the end of the decade from about 45 million tons or less in the most recent, drought-impaired season.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Sugar still makes up just small fraction of the world’s energy picture, despite its potential to help ease reliance on Crude Oil. Last year, only about 3% of U.S. gasoline contained ethanol. But consumption is forecast to rise, and in 2005, estimates are that 36 billion liters of ethanol fuel were produced, representing an increase of roughly 20% from the previous year.

Where Can the Market Go from Here?

Some analysts in the bearish camp suggest that Sugar prices only in the range of 12 to 13 cents per pound are warranted. Much of the remaining demand, they say, is coming from hedge funds and other speculative investors who realized substantial profits in Crude Oil and other raw materials in 2004 and 2005 and believe ethanol is going to make sugar the next hot commodity. Bearish market observers also point to the fact that the world’s four biggest sugar exporters Brazil, the European Union, Australia and Thailand all have plans to increase production of ethanol and other alternative fuels during the next several years. Although sugar is one of the world’s most important agricultural crops, its prices has languished in recent years, in part because of soaring production in places like Brazil. Prices dropped below six cents a pound as recently as 2003.

Bullish Sugar traders, however, correctly point out that even at today’s lofty levels, Sugar prices are a far cry from the early 1980s, when they soared as high as 45 cents per pound. Most countries lack the basic infrastructure to use ethanol at this point in time, and ethanol production often requires big government subsidies to compete with more traditional fuels. But if Crude Oil prices remain high, the incentives to make ethanol work grow. Even small steps toward increased ethanol consumption, they say, could drive long-term demand for Sugar higher.

It’s up to individual traders to draw their own conclusions as to where Sugar futures will head as 2006 unfolds. But one thing’s for certain: Futures and options on the “universal commodity” will be active, and there should be plenty of trading opportunities for those with both bullish and bearish perspectives.

Corn Bulls And Bears Are Caught In A Tug-Of-War

Cornfused? Corn bulls and bears are caught in a tug-of-war to decide the next move in the market. The bullish argument is that weekly export sales were higher than expected, with the USDA reporting sales of 1,424,300 tons, 16% above the 4-week average. Also supportive was news that China would not be exporting Corn any time soon, as domestic demand continues to be stronger than expected. Read More....

U.S. Trade Gap Climbed To Another Record

Today we learned that the U.S. trade gap climbed to another record -- $68.5 billion in January, while jobless claims rose above the psychological 300K barrier to 303,000 in the latest week. Naturally this is Dollar-negative news, although the more telling number will be tomorrow's non-farm payroll number, which is expected to be near 225,000. If tomorrow's number is soft, analyst may need to reevaluate their assumptions about the strength of the jobs market, after being reminded of the "twin deficit" concern this morning. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Gold: The metals tanked during yesterday's session, but rebounded in the overnight and early in this mornings session. The decline in Crude seemed to be the key catalyst in the move with technical factors also contributing. April Gold is currently trading at 548.40, up $4.10 as of 8:47 am CST.


Cotton: Cotton got a boost on news the China Cotton Association will soon be revising a deal with the US. May Cotton closed at 5386, down 11 for the session.


Crude: Crude fell for the third straight session on the OPEC announcement that production will remain at current levels. US inventories soared, increasing by 6.8 million barrels. Crude closed at 60.02, down 1.56 for the session.

Freshly squeezed!

That is how Orange Juice bears are feeling right now, as prices hit 10-year highs. Speculators were early buyers today, anticipating a sizable reduction in Friday's USDA crop production report. Most traders are looking for a cut of 3 million boxes, to 155 million boxes for this crop year. Read More....

Join Us Today At 12:00 PM CST For Our Platform Walkthrough!

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

Markets To Watch Today

Crude: Crude tanks this morning flirting with the $60 price level as OPEC meets in Austria. Iran has agreed to suspend large-scale nuclear ambitions and Nigeria has promised the return of lost production. April Crude Oil is down $1.33 this morning, trading at $60.25.

Soybeans: Soybeans fell yesterday and continued farther this morning pressured by a weaker Brazilian Real that may cause farmers to increase supplies. May Beans are down 5.50, trading at 584.50.

Sugar: Sugar drops as well as profit taking was prevalent this morning. Low supplies and strong demand continue to prop up the contract. May Sugar is down 48 this morning, trading at 16.70.

EURO: Strong Buying Pressure By The Central Bank

EURO: Strong buying pressure by the Central Bank helped push the Eurocurrency up to 1.1940 during Asian-session trading, but the topside was stymied by US investment names and Macro players selling into EUR strength. US Dollar bulls are biding their time for a run down to 1.1830, pending today's commentary by Fed policy-makers Bernake and Poole. Read More...

Ground Beef: Live Cattle Futures Have Dropped

Ground Beef: Live cattle futures have dropped over $10 in the last two months, as the continuing export ban of US beef to Japan and South Korea keeps the market weak. This week starts the 5-day "Goldman roll" period, when commodity index funds move their long positions out of the lead month contract to the next active month. This has led to extremely active spread trading in the Apr/Jun spread, with an estimated 8000 spreads trading in yesterday's session. Read More....

Euro-trashed!

The US Dollar had its biggest one-day gain against the Euro Currency today, as traders have higher expectations for US interest rates.This comes just one day after the Euro posted one-month highs yesterday, and demonstrates how quickly market opinions can change. Read More....

Today's Market Outlook Webinar

If you were not able to attend today's Market Outlook Webinar, with analyst Jim Wyckoff, we will be adding the archived presentation to this blog on Thursday Morning for your convenience.

FX Closing Comments

Dollar continues to wage war on the Euro and Yen posting a third straight day of modest, but stable gains. EUR/USD broke through resistance at 1.1900 but failed to spark a significant rally, stalling at 1.1880 after making a run down to 1.1869.

Canada's Central bank did increase interest rates 25 basis points as expected to 3.75%. Commentary regarding economic conditions were toned down from earlier hawkish statements in response the high value of the Canadian Dollar: “Information on the Canadian and global economies received since the January Monetary Policy Report Update has been broadly in line with the Bank's expectations, although the Canadian dollar has recently moved above the range that had been assumed in the Update.” This is the only comment on the dollar. The economy is as expected, though the dollar is stronger. Although it's a very neutral comment, the fact that the Bank even mentions the loonie shows it is at least on its radar screen, but not at a troubling level at the moment. When policy makers meet again in April, a further interest rate hike is expected.

Euro Session Shows Rise in Dollar

US Dollar: Another European session rise for the Dollar as Gold declined on the world market. The economy is getting a spark from Chinese exports, and expectations for tighter monetary policy in Japan has also contributed to declines in U.S. financial markets, sending bonds tumbling and yields rising and hurting the stock market. Read More....

Natural Gas Prices Continue To Deflate

Natural Gas prices continue to deflate: It appears that the bubble has burst on Natural Gas prices. This comes after months of record high prices and concerns of supply shortages. However, a warmer than normal winter in the Midwest and Northeast US and slack industrial demand have allowed supplies in storage to stabilize, and prices have fallen sharply. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today!

Crude Oil: Crude Oil fell on the assurance from OPEC that production will stay close to capacity. Official confirmation will be received after the members meet tomorrow. April Crude closed at 62.41, down 1.26 yesterday.

Gold: Gold tanked yesterday as the contract broke through key technical levels. A weak dollar and lower crude prices contributed to the sell off. April Gold is trading at 557.50, up 70 cents in this mornings trading.

Copper: Copper took a smaller hit than Gold, as inventories were reported to have increased slightly. April Copper is trading at 2.2050, unchanged this morning.

Gotta Have A J-O-B If You Sell The Treasury

Gotta have a J-O-B, if you sell the Treasury: US Treasuries fell today, putting the yield on the 10-year note at its highest rate since June 2004. The FOMC began its run of 14 straight interest rate hikes since this time. Market participants are anticipating strong numbers from the employment reports due out later that week, prompting the Fed to continue raising rates. Read More...

FX Closing Comments

Quiet day as the markets failed to aggressively respond to lower US factory number. Economists feel the manufacturing sector, which was hardest hit in the 2001 recession, should show solid growth this year as many companies, combating capacity constraints, boost their orders for equipment to expand and modernize. EUR/USD bounced down to a new session low of 1.988 only to end the day range bound at 1.2020.

Strong Investor Demand Drives The Market Up in Gold

Gold is trading lower this morning, mostly on the strength of the US Dollar. Strong investor demand continues to drive the market. CFTC data shows that large speculators increased their net long position in Gold for the first time since January 10th , due to fresh buying and short-covering. Read more....

Defensive Dollar Today

US Dollar: The Dollar has been on the defensive against the Euro during the overnight Asian session, but cannot seem to break through significant resistance at 1.2100. Option barriers prevented price action rising through the 200-day moving average, as technical traders reversed longs in anticipation of further Euro downside risk. Read More....

Gold Trading Lower This Morning

Gold is trading lower this morning, mostly on the strength of the US Dollar. Strong investor demand continues to drive the market. CFTC data shows that large speculators increased their net long position in Gold for the first time since January 10th , due to fresh buying and short-covering. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today!

Crude Oil: Crude is trading lower this morning as traders await the results of two key meetings. OPEC will make a decision as to future production, which is expected to remain at nearly full capacity and IAEA board meeting, which is expected to refer Iran to the UN Security Council. April Crude is trading at 62.90, down 77 cents as of 10:12 am CST.

Silver: Silver is trading higher as traders anticipate the SEC's decision on Barclay's Silver ETF. May Silver is trading at 10.275, up 4 cents as of 10:14 am CST.

Wheat: Wheat is trading lower on heavy volume. May Wheat is trading at 379.25, down 5.75 as of 10:16 am CST.

FX Closing Comments

FX markets were range bound and relatively quite. The Dollar did make modes gains against the Yen but rallies continue to fail in the CAD and EUR. The University of Michigan's last revision of its February consumer sentiment index fell to 86.7 from 91.2 in late January and 87.4 in early February. Economists thought it would be revised up to 88.0. Unemployment was a non-factor in today's trading.

Soybeans Made Solid Gains Yesterday

Soybeans made solid gains yesterday on news of increased European demand. Funds went bargain hunting on Thursday, adding to long positions. Commercial traders held a net long position of 14,521 contracts as of the February 21 Commitment of Traders report. Speculators were forced to cover short positions, as the contract broke through the $6 mark. Non-reportables were net short 43,386 contracts. Read More....

University Of Michigan Sentiment Slightly Stronger

US Dollar: Today's economic readings include a revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the Institute for Supply Management's service index. According to a survey by Briefing.com, expectations for February's consumer sentiment should be slightly stronger to 87.50, from initial reports of 87.4. The service sector numbers in January were 56.8, and economists are expecting a rise to 58 in February. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Crude: Crude Oil climbed above $63 during yesterday's session on continued fears of possible cuts in production. Threats by Nigerian rebels, Iran's nuclear ambitions and the impending OPEC meeting currently overshadow an excess supplies. The April Crude Oil contract is trading at $63 as of 10:20 am CST.


Silver: Silver climbed above $10 during yesterday's session setting a 19-year high on news of an impending Exchange Traded Fund currently in the approval process. March Silver is trading at $10.11 as of 10:30 am CST.


Soybeans: Soybeans climbed above $6 during yesterday's session on strengthened European demand. May Beans are trading at 6.03 1/2 as of 10:40 am CST.

Bo Derek, Mary Lou Retton and Silver

Bo Derek, Mary Lou Retton and Silver: Silver climbed above the $10 barrier today for the first time since March of 1984 during the New York session. Investor demand for the metal has exploded over the past year, gaining nearly 40% since January 1st. After witnessing the success of the Gold Exchange-Traded Fund introduced earlier this year, Barclays Global Investors is currently seeking US approval for a Silver ETF. Read More....

Join Us Today At 1:00 PM CST For Our Platform Walkthrough!

Though we expect you'll find our website to be refreshingly intuitive and user-friendly, you might still like to join us for a live, online system walk-through. This is a new service that we've decided to offer, and we think it'll be a great way for both new and existing clients to learn about everything our browser-based trading platform has to offer.
These training sessions will be held twice weekly and take place online, in a virtual classroom. If you're interested in participating, you'll simply log into the training site at one of the designated times, and you can watch in real-time as a member of the XPRESSTRADE customer service team moves through the website, pointing out all the tools at your disposal. You can even listen to the instructor over your computer speakers.
At the end of each online group training session, you’ll have the opportunity to post questions for the instructor. Not only will you receive direct answers to your questions, but you might very well find that answers to questions from your fellow traders will be helpful to you, too. We encourage you to give this new complimentary service a try!
Every Wednesday at 12:00PM CST and Every Thursday at 1:00PM CST

The Yen Remains On A Roll Against The Dollar

US Dollar: The unemployment numbers reported a slight increase of newly filed claims but an overall solid outlook for a steady labor market. The Labor Department reported that 294,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits, up by 15,000 from the previous week. Analysts are pointing to seasonal variations in the February raw data and note that filings can be affected by inclement weather and bank holidays. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Lean Hog: Lean Hog Futures soared yesterday on support from bullish data released by the Agriculture Department and strong cash prices. April Lean Hog futures closed at 62.70, up 1.22 for the session.


Crude Oil: The Crude Oil market dismissed the EIA report revealing another increase in stocks, the ninth weekly increase in a row. Threats to production overshadowed excess inventories. April Crude is trading at 62.50 as of 9:05 this morning.


Copper: Copper prices jumped on news of a strike by miner's in Mexico, strong demand and technical chart-based buying. April Copper is trading at 2.2675 as of 9:05 this morning.

Crude Oil Traded Above $62 A Barrel, Fueled By Geopolitical Threats To Oil Supplies

Crude Oil traded above $62 a barrel, fueled by geopolitical threats to oil supplies. Though the US has built up strong inventories, traders fear possible cuts in production from exporters could potentially wipe-out any surplus. Attacks in Nigeria have successfully diminished output by 20% since February 18th, and new attacks are planned according to a warning issued by the rebels responsible. The Saudis thwarted an attempt made on their soil and have since stepped-up security. Read More....

Just Melt It Down, No Need To Wrap:

Just melt it down, no need to wrap: Gold futures found support, after struggling all morning to find direction. Pressured by losses in the other precious metals, investor demand allowed the contract to produce modest gains. Much of the US Economic data released this week has been supportive for the metal. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

The Dollar managed to claw back some gains today, making-up some of its recent losses. A decent ISM service sector number may have helped matters, along with the perception that Q1 GDP numbers may be especially firm. Thursday will see commentary from the ECB, which may alter perceptions about interest rate policy and growth prospects within the eurozone.

USD/CAD: New 14Y Low

For those who feel that FX pairs have been in a "data dependant" mode thus far in 2006, yesterday provided the proof. After receiving fairly robust Eurozone data early in the day, traders were greeted with three consecutive, weak figures on the U.S. economy. Chicago manufacturing survey, consumer confidence, and existing home sales were all reported soft. Read More....

Corn Demand Looks To Be Growing For Both Feed And Industrial Use

Corn demand looks to be growing for both feed and industrial use. A drought in the southern plains has forced increased cattle placements, so feed usage should be relatively high, in spite of the warmer than normal weather. Higher sugar prices have resulted in higher demand for high fructose corn syrup, and a push toward more plastics and ethanol production using the grain has helped support prices. Read More....

Markets To Watch Today

Gold: Weak US Economic numbers yesterday pushed gold prices higher. 2006 has seen very strong investor demand and the trend is expected to continue. April Gold is trading at 562.50, up 90 cents as of 8:35am CST.

Coffee: Coffee prices climbed higher as funds added to there long positions and producers backed off hedged positions. March Coffee is trading at $1.1200, up 0.0020 as of 8:41am CST.

Crude: Crude prices climbed higher yesterday on the heels of a sharp rally in Gasoline futures. The April ACCESS Crude Oil contract closed at $61.71, up 30 cents for the session.