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Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Dow Jones FCOJ Review with XPRESSTRADE Futures Analyst, Mike Zarembski

May frozen concentrated orange juice futures closed higher Wednesday on light
speculative buying in an overall thinly traded market. Positive technicals and
a small Florida crop supported the gains, sources said.

Most-active May FCOJ gained 125 points to $1.3555 a pound on the New York
Board of Trade.

"It was one of the quietest days we've seen in a long time," said Mike
Zarembski, analyst and futures desk trader at XPRESSTRADE.com in Chicago.

Technicals were at play more than anything else in the market, which
accounted for the spec buying.

"They tried to test that $1.32 level on the May contract yesterday (Tuesday)
and the 20-day moving average comes in right there. When they couldn't push it
through there the specs took it higher and we had a little follow-through
buying today (Wednesday) as well," he said.

While the market looks like it wants to continue higher, Zarembski said the
market needs some trade buying "to really push us over the top."

While the market may see some backing and filling action in the near term,
prices remain supported by a small Florida orange crop, which the U.S.
Department of Agriculture revised lower last week to 154 million, 90-pound
boxes, from 158 million in February.

Some traders say the crop estimate could be revised lower still in the next
month or two.

Meanwhile, Florida's northern citrus-growing saw scattered showers and
thunderstorms overnight with 0.20-0.50 inch of rain. Mostly dry conditions are
seen Wednesday and Thursday, with a few light showers possible Friday, DTN
Meteorlogix said. Dry conditions will return on Saturday with scattered showers
developing on Sunday.

At the Nybot, total FCOJ open interest on Tuesday fell 46 to 36,270
contracts, indicating the recent gains came mostly on short-covering.

Technical support on May is uncovered at $1.3200, $1.3110, $1.2960 and the
gap area that runs from $1.2640-$1.2575. Resistance is met at $1.3650, the
$1.3770 contract high, the April 1996 $1.3850 high, $1.3875 and the May 1992
high of $1.4290.

At the Nybot, FCOJ futures volume was estimated at 1,348 contracts, with 777
calls and 410 put options traded.


Close Change Range
May 1.3555 up 125 1.3330-1.3600
July 1.3330 up 90 1.3130-1.3350
-By Tom Sellen; Dow Jones Newswires