Markets To Watch Today

Crude Oil: February Crude Oil futures are trading slightly lower in early trading. Crude Oil rose 18 cents, to settle at $60.53 a barrel on Wednesday. While trading has been quiet this week, today’s action will determine if Crude Oil can post its first annual decline since 2001. The 2005 close was at $61.04, and the 2006 high was near $80 back in July. Mild winter weather continues to be the focus of traders, as prices continue to hover around $60. February Crude Oil futures are trading down 39 cents at $60.14 a barrel in early trading.

Soybeans: March Soybean futures ended the overnight session slightly higher. Yesterday, March Soybean futures ended the day up 5 ¼ cents at $690.50 a bushel. Technical buying and strength from the vegetable oil markets provided the support. Overall, volume has been light as the holiday season continues. March Soybean futures ended the overnight session up 1 cent at $691.50 a bushel.

S&P: March S&P 500 futures are trading slightly higher this morning, as the market appears to be headed for a slow day of trade. Some investors are clinging onto hope that there will be some position jostling on the last trading day of 2006. The S&P is poised to end the year with its best performance since 2003, gaining 14% in 2006. There is no major economic data due out today. The major news everyone is waiting for is the NYSE’s decision on whether to open or close Tuesday. The NASDAQ has already announced it will shut down for President Ford’s day of mourning. March S&P futures are trading up 1.20 at 1435.00 in early trading.

Bulls Running Out Of Gas

Bulls running out of Gas: Lead month Natural Gas futures peaked at the beginning of 2006, as a moderate hurricane season, coupled with a mild winter, caused supplies in storage to surge. The moderate weather so far in December has led to below average stock withdrawals so far this winter. This morning, the EIA will release its weekly storage report for the week ending December 22nd. Read More....

The Euro Was Unable To Stay Above 1.3200

The Euro was unable to stay above 1.3200 during overnight trading, but is supported by fundamental data released this morning. Yesterday’s Dollar positive jobless claims number and housing report helped underpin the start of a bull run for the Euro. Turning to Fed watch, the board stated the minutes from the December 12th FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, January 3rd, due to a national day of mourning for President Ford. Read More....

Soybeans Climb Ahead Of First Notice Day

Soybeans climb ahead of first notice day: Soybean futures posted moderate gains this afternoon, as higher Palm Oil prices coupled with strength from the Soybean Oil pit, put traders in a buying mood. Volume was lighter than usual due to the many market participants absent during this holiday shortened week. Traders noted active spread trading, with speculators moving out of the January contract ahead of tomorrow's first notice day. Read More....

FX Closing Comments

Short Lived Gains

The Japanese Yen made a small headline today despite very low liquidity. Industrial production missed expectations for the month of November, rising only 0.7% against estimates of a bullish 1.0% rise, this made the annual rate drop to 4.8%. Upon further reading, the report sounded quite positive with export shipments above October's numbers and inventories supplies also gained. Meanwhile, labor cash earnings plunged 0.7% during November, leading the annual rate to fall negative for the third time this year at -0.2%. In addition to the Japanese Industrial Production numbers, a detailed report from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare showed that actual earnings dropped 1.1% from last year, this normally means that families are seeing almost no payroll growth. On the whole, the Japanese data continues to indicate that producers are benefiting from export growth but are not passing the profits onto their employees. What this did to the markets was the following. The USD / JYP was trading in the 118.95 range before taking a larger dip on the bullish Japanese numbers. Then the pair reached today's lows of 118.51 before springing back to 119.05. While the initial reaction to the news was considered correct, a rebound towards the US Dollar was not a normal reaction. This could have been caused by the relativity low volume that is normally associated with the holiday season. David Hilgeman

Markets To Watch Today

Crude Oil: February Crude Oil futures are trading slightly higher in early trading. Crude Oil fell another 75 cents, to settle at $60.34 a barrel on Wednesday. Mild winter weather is behind the four-day decline that has brought prices back near $60 a barrel. Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast will be above average through January 9, according to the National Weather Service. Crude Inventory data is due out today at 9:30 AM CST. U.S. Crude Oil stockpiles are expected to have declined by 2.5 million barrels, mainly due to fog-related shipping disruptions in Houston last week. Gasoline inventories are expected to have gained 750,000 barrels, and U.S. distillate stockpiles are expected to have gained 500,000 barrels. February Crude Oil futures are trading up 27 cents at $60.61 a barrel in early trading.

Wheat: March Wheat futures ended the overnight session higher, recovering some of yesterday’s decline. Yesterday, March Wheat futures ended the day down 9 ¾ cents at $507.00 a bushel. Yesterday’s weakness was considered a market correction after several days of gains. Investors are looking for fresh fundamental news to provide further direction. March Wheat futures ended the overnight session up 2 ¾ cents at $509.75 a bushel.

S&P: March S&P 500 futures are trading relatively flat this morning, as the market looks for further direction after two days of gains. That direction should come from economic data due out at 9:00 AM CST. Chicago PMI is expected to come in at 50.2. Consumer Confidence is expected to come in at 102.00. Existing Home Sales is expected at 6.15 million. Initial Jobless Claims already checked in a little lower than expected at 317,000 (consensus 320,000). Yesterday saw S&P futures match Tuesday’s rally, gaining another 8.30. Trade is expected to be choppy today, with investors juggling end-of-the-year portfolio management with today’s economic data. March S&P futures are trading down 0.60 at 1436.50 in early trading.

Hog Tied!

Hog tied! Lean Hog futures have been in a slump for nearly 2 months, falling just over $6 per hundred weight since contract highs were made back in November. Prices have since consolidated near the $62 level, just ahead of yesterday's release of the USDA's quarterly hogs and pigs report. The report for all hogs and pigs on December 1st was 101% of last year's totals. Read More....

Euro Longs Are Getting The Most Out Of Positions

Euro longs are getting the most out of positions taken at discount prices from earlier in the week. The Dollar gave up its modest gain from yesterday’s surprisingly strong housing report and awaits today’s Chicago PMI and U.S. weekly jobless claims. Seasonal adjustments are expected to smooth out the number of repeat filers, and new claims for the holiday week are expected to dip lower. Traders are looking for fundamental support that lower rates are coming for next year. At the moment, the Euro attempts to consolidate in the 1.3200 area. Read More....

Coffee Grinds Out Gains!

Coffee grinds out gains! The bull market in Coffee futures looks to be alive and well, as strong speculative buying overcame origin selling to close near the highs of the day. Commodity funds are strongly bullish the Coffee market, with Brazil set to produce a sharply reduced crop for the 2007-08 year. Also, there are concerns that this season's carryover stocks will not be adequate to meed world consumption given the smaller harvest. In the meantime, Brazilian exports should remain brisk in early 2007, as many producers look to sell their harvest at current attractive prices. Read More....

The Euro Rebounded Nicely Against A Soft Dollar

The Euro rebounded nicely against a soft Dollar during overnight trading, consolidating at the 1.3150/60 area, and got a boost from an 8% reserve diversification announcement by the United Arab Emirates. Euro longs saw opportunities at the 1.3100 level, establishing new positions following the Yen and Sterling’s lead. News reports from Japan that rates are likely to be slowly increased during the first three quarters of 2007 to .5% caused the Dollar to skid against the majors. Read More....

Gold Futures Have Been Holding Steady

Gold futures have been holding steady as the end of 2006 approaches, with a continued weak US Dollar and Central Bank diversification providing support for the market. Commodity funds have been among the biggest buyers of Gold futures in 2006, controlling a net-position of over 69,000 contracts, as of the most recent Commitment of Traders report. Normally, weak Crude Oil prices would drag Gold prices lower, however, yesterday's sharp sell-off in the energy markets was ignored by metals traders, with Gold posting solid gains after the long Christmas holiday. With 2007 rapidly approaching, traders should focus on energy prices, the US Dollar, and the base metals sector to determine if the Gold market is heading to new all-time high prices in the coming year. Read More...

Markets To Watch Today

Crude Oil: February Crude Oil futures are trading slightly lower in early trading. Crude Oil fell $1.30 to settle at $61.10 a barrel on Tuesday. Mild winter weather is behind the three-day decline that has brought prices back near $60 a barrel. Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast will be above average through January 9, according to the National Weather Service. UN Sanctions against Iran were approved over the weekend, but have been largely ignored by investors, as the ongoing dispute over Iran’s nuclear intentions continues. Crude Inventory data is due out today at 9:30 AM CST. Gasoline inventories are expected to have gained 700,000 barrels. U.S. crude oil stockpiles are expected to have declined by 1.75 million barrels, and distillate stockpiles are expected to have declined by 150,000 barrels. February Crude Oil futures are trading down 26 cents at $60.84 a barrel in early trading.

Soybeans: March Soybean futures ended the overnight session higher, continuing yesterday’s strength. Yesterday, March Soybean futures ended the day up 12 ¼ cents at $686.50 a bushel. Yesterday’s gain brings a three-day total of 23 cents. Technical buying is being given credit for the recent strength. March Soybean futures ended the overnight session up 1 cent at $687.50 a bushel.

S&P: March S&P 500 futures are trading higher this morning, continuing yesterday’s strength. Weakness in Crude Oil is supporting the bullish effort by reducing inflationary pressure. However, futures have come off their early highs. Apple (AAPL) is trading down nearly 3% following reports that it falsified stock option documents. Yesterday saw March S&P futures gain 8.50, recovering almost all of Friday’s low-volume sell-off. On the economic data front New Home Sales is the only data due out today, scheduled to be released at 9:00 AM CST. March S&P futures are trading up 3.60 at 1432.40 in early trading.

Bean Breakout!

Bean breakout! March Soybeans posted double-digit gains this afternoon, as fund buying in back month futures, sent prices soaring amidst thin post-holiday trading. Prices were called higher to start the session, following on the gains from Friday's shortened session. Read More.....

Silver Bullet!

March Silver futures came to life this morning after the long holiday weekend. The recent declines have exhausted the bears as lower prices stimulated buying instead of further long liquidation and new shorts. Silver futures are now in a lower trading range with $12.40 to $12.85 representing the upper and lower bounds. Read More....

Light Trading Keeps Majors In Ranges

Light trading this week will limit the majors to tight ranges barring large year-end orders from corporate investors and large speculative positions. Dollar-related data, that may send the greenback lower, would be U.S. home sales for November due Wednesday. Read More......

How Low Can Natural Gas Prices Go?

How low can Natural Gas prices go? Starting off the holiday shortened week, Natural Gas futures continue to plunge, as continued mild weather in the major Gas consuming areas of the US, coupled with a large surplus have bears in control. Large speculators, who have favored the long side of the market, are starting to give-up on their positions, according to the most recent Commitment of Traders report. Read More......

Year-End Buying Sends Nickel Higher

Year-end buying sends Nickel higher: LME 3-month Nickel futures ended the week sharply higher, as bargain- hunting buying and thin trading conditions led to the day's gains. Continued strong demand, coupled with labor issues at a mine in New Caledonia, provided fundamental reasons for the recent price rise. LME warehouse stocks declined today, falling 258 metric tons to stand at 7,092 tons. Support for 3-month Nickel comes in at $32,300 with resistance found at 34,715. 3-month Nickel futures closed at $33,400 bid/$33,500 ask, up $1500. Read More....

Dail FOREX Wrap-Up

Dollar bulls prevailed this morning heading into the holiday weekend. With the release of the US Personal Income and the Durable Goods Reports for November, a short term Dollar bull has been sited. The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) excluding food and energy came in at 2.2% in November, a number a bit lower than the 2.4% climb registered in October. Consumer spending and personal income showed increases last month up to $50.5 billion or 0.5 percent. Personal income increased $33.8 billion or 0.3 percent this data from the U.S. Commerce Department is generally considered a healthy sign. Looking a bit into the future, throughout the next week and up to the start of 2007, we should see smaller range bound trading but, with lower volume there is always the possibility that a big swing could occurred. This normally keeps professionals form trading in lower liquidity. Currently the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3140 with an hour to go before the close. Have a happy holiday weekend.

Corn Continues Higher

Corn continues higher: Corn futures posted moderate gains this afternoon, moving to 2 1/2 week highs, as strong weekly export sales combined with fresh momentum buying kept bulls in control. This morning the USDA reported that US Corn export sales for the week ending December 14th totaled 1.35 million metric tons. This was above average estimate of 1.15 million tons. Read More....

Corn Futures Were The Star Of The Grain Complex In 2006

Corn futures were the star of the grain complex in 2006, as strong demand tied to increased Ethanol production and increased feed demand from Asia spurred the bull market. It is estimated that US demand for Corn in the 2007-08 season could exceed domestic production and further tighten already low stocks to usage levels. Much of the increased demand is directly tied to Ethanol. High Corn prices have increased the amount of estimated acres that will go to US Corn production, with some estimates looking for nearly 85 million acres of Corn to be planted in the spring. Read More....

XPRESSTRADE Holiday Trading Schedule

FX Daily Wrap Up

As many people are wrapping up presents heading towards the Christmas holiday, the FOREX week is quickly wrapping up as well. This morning, the Commerce Department reported GDP growing at an annual 2% pace for the third quarter, which is slightly lower than the projected 2.2%. In addition, Weekly Jobless Claims increased to 315,000. This news had very little reaction in the markets. In early morning trading, the US Dollar was gaining ground against the Euro, but quickly faded when resistance was met at 1.1340. The pair then moved into range-bound trading and is expected to remain that way until after the holiday. A big question on the trader’s mind is if and when the Feds are going to cut rates. The Federal Reserve might slash rates early into the year to try and spark the economy however the powers that be, might try to hold off in an effort to prolong intervention. Time will tell and so will the Feds, but only after the holiday. As we move slowly into the Asian session, the EUR/USD is holding in tight ranges near 1.3170. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

The Laggard Of The Grain Complex

The laggard of the grain complex: Soymeal futures look to struggle going into 2007, as strong demand for Soybean Oil may lead to large meal stocks. The increased production of biodiesel has started a bull market for vegetable oils such as Soyoil. This has enabled crushers to increase production to meet the demand for Soyoil. Read More....

Melted Chocolate

Melted Chocolate: Cocoa futures gave back the past seven days gains this morning, as widespread selling overwhelmed the market. Cocoa futures made 5-month highs just yesterday, as continued unrest in the Ivory Coast and short-covering buying, propelled prices higher. However, today's failure to take out the recent highs at $1694, gave bulls a reason to book profits. Read More....

FX Daily Wrap-Up

Today the US dollar rallied nearly 80 points from the European open. This might be a retracement from yesterday's EUR/USD rally in which the Euro gained over 100 points with a good trending market. Yesterday's Housing Starts and Producer Inflation were expected to draw weak interest from the market, however a sizable gain in producer prices caught traders by surprise causing volatility to rise after the release. Major economic releases are for the most part done for the year, this typically is the period with lower liquidity and traditionally smaller ranges in addition, and this is the last full week of the year with out a holiday upsetting trading. The only major news event released today that affected the US markets was the Canadian Wholesale Sales and US DOE Crude Oil Inventories. Canadian wholesale numbers were lower for the second straight month, and showed a retraction for the month prior. With that the bearish figures were not enough to slow the Canadian Dollar's rally. The USD/ CAD pair hit a high near 1.1535 before the Canadian dollar pushed to a low of 1.1425 in relatively heavy trading for the season. Heading into the Asian session, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3170 with the Dollar bears in control.

XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Consolidation Continues For Crude Oil

Consolidation continues for Crude Oil: Since the middle of September, Crude Oil futures have been trapped in a $6 range with neither bulls nor bears able to wrestle control over the market. This was quite a shift from earlier in the year when Oil prices made record highs, and then mid-year fell over $20 a barrel. Going into the end of 2006, traders will be watching closely today's release of the EIA weekly energy stocks report to try to find some catalyst to break out of the volatility slump. Read More....

Bears Warming Up To Natural Gas

Bears warming up to Natural Gas: Lead month January Natural Gas futures fell to 9-week lows, this morning, falling below the $7 handle, as continued mild temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast US are expected to hold through the end of the year. Prices fell as low as $6.96 in the soon to expire January contract, before bargain hunting buying emerged. A mid-day rally in Crude Oil futures drew some spillover buying into the Natural Gas ring. Read More....

Soiled Soybean Market

Soybeans: March Beans lost nearly a dime yesterday as the grains sold off across the board. Many in the bear camp believe that lower lows need be tested before Beans can resume upward momentum. Bearish weather conditions in Brazil and northern Argentina pressured the trade early in the session yesterday. Read More.....

Rollercoaster Ride for the Dollar

The overnight session has been a roller coaster ride for the Dollar against the Euro beginning with Iran’s shift in foreign-trade transactions. Traders anticipated the move from the Dollar to the Eurocurrency since Iran’s minister of foreign affairs made the announcement December 4th. Read More.....

Daily FX Wrap Up

Heading into the final stretch, the FOREX race is far from over. EUR/USD rallied nearly 100 points in early morning trading hours to 1.3180. From there, short-term bullish momentum in the US Dollar allowed a 50 pip retracement before fresh buying pushed the pair back to its highs and then quite a bit further. Concurrently the Pound rallied over 170 pips against the greenback to 1.9655 before the morning pullback erased a majority of the gains. However, like its Euro counterpart, the pair ended the US afternoon session near the highs. US traders are awaiting the remaining economic releases in the last full week of 2006. Today's releases of Housing Starts and Producer Inflation were expected to draw weak interest from the market, however a sizable gain in producer prices caught traders by surprise causing volatility to rise after the release. Currently the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3190 moving into the Asian session. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Inflation fears rekindled?

Inflation fears rekindled? The Labor Department threw a curve to analysts and economists this morning, as producer prices for November rose sharply. On the back of sharply higher gasoline and light truck prices, the November Producer Price index rose 2.0%, the fastest growth rate since the 1970's. The so called "core" index, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, produced gains of 1.3%. Read More.....

Super Sugar Rally

Super Sugar rally! Sugar futures posted sharp gains this morning, rising over 1/2 cent a pound, despite word that the Indian government lifted a partial ban on white Sugar exports. The trading day started to the up-side, following higher prices in London and follow-through buying from Friday's strong close. Read More.....

Daily FX Wrap Up

With Christmas and the New Years holiday rapidly approaching, many traders are trying to get a few more trades off before the end of the year. As everyone is well aware, the US Dollar recently reached multi-year lows verse the majors, so the question is, “Will the US Dollar continue to decline in the New Year?” A quick review of recent past fundamental news indicates that further declines are quite possible. With Japan’s Bank Minister being extremely optimistic about future growth, coupled with the belief that the US is at the beginning stages of an economic decline, it seems more than believable. In addition, the Euro is replacing the US Dollar as the currency to hold as a benchmark for multi-national government reserves. With that said, most experts believe that further declines will be short lived at best. The main reason is a further decline in the greenback will spread throughout the globe. The US is the world’s largest consumer, and a key component to most countries export sales. Only time will tell, but we should look forward in 2007 for broader trading ranges in the Dollar. Currently the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3100, finishing the American session near the day’s highs. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Silver Gets Sacked

Oil: News of delayed OPEC cuts, coupled with a bearish weather forecast, have put pressure lead-month February crude oil futures in New York this morning. February crude futures are changing hands circa $63.35, down over 70 cents per barrel. Read More....

Range Trading for the Dollar

The Dollar looks for comfort within range trading this week, pending any significant inflation related data, such as wholesale figures and manufacturing reports. If the data shows signs the Fed’s policy is successfully containing inflation, the Dollar will likely get a boost against the majors, and ride the wave into the New Year. Read More.....

Getting Juiced in 2007

Getting juiced-up for 2007:Orange Juice futures have been one of the best performing markets of all 2006 up nearly 90 cents from the January lows, as poor Florida Orange production, coming in at an anemic 147.9 million 90 lb. boxes, has given traders a reason to bid-up prices. Read More.....

Coffee Grounded

Coffee grounded: New York Coffee futures spent only a few minutes at 10-month highs, as origin selling ahead of the first official estimate of the 2007-08 Brazilian Coffee crop, caused a speculative selling spree. The market opened up near the day's highs, and moved all the way up to $1.30 before origin selling moved the market back to support at $128.00. Read More.....

Daily FX Wrap Up

Fundamentals Gone Wild.

It was a bit of an extreme day in the currency markets today, with the release of the Tankan survey of large manufactures this morning, the Japanese Yen made quick gains against its major counterparts. The survey was in line with expectations, rising to 25 its highest level in over a year. At todays open a slow but steady rise placed the Dollar near the monthly high however, upon hearing the Japanese news the Dollar took a sharp dive to the daily low of 117.45 only to pull out and finish the week near 118.20. While the USD has gained on the Yen, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Toshihiko Fukui has been very clear in his stance on the country’s prospects for growth. That said, the Governor might find it hard to act on his comments about raising rates it seems far more prudent to hold out until at least January, if not February, before pursuing monetary policy action. Many monetary policy officials have hawkishly commented that policy action is based on growth outlooks and not prior results. The only clear message we can bet on from the Bank of Japan is that within the next three months, there is a very good chance that rates will rise. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

The Land of the Rising Sun

With the release of the Tankan survey of large manufactures this morning, the Japanese Yen made quick gains against its major counterparts. The survey was in line with expectations, rising to 25 – its highest level in over a year. Read More....

S&P Santa Rally

S&P: March S&P 500 futures are trading higher, receiving a boost from CPI data. The Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index was unchanged last month for both total and core CPI. A 0.2% gain was expected in each. Read More.....

What Inflation?

Tame CPI keeps rate cut hopes alive! Falling energy and food prices last month allowed the Consumer Price Index to remain unchanged in November. The so called "core rate," which excludes both food and energy prices, was also unchanged last month. This tame reading surprised traders who were looking for a 0.2% gain in both indexes. Read More.....

Potential Bull Market In The Making?

Potential bull market in the making? Cotton futures surged to 2 1/2 month highs this afternoon, as commodity fund buying sent bears scrambling. Momentum traders were active once the March contract moved above the recent highs at 5475. Light buy-stops were triggered there as well, moving the market above 5500. Read More....

Daily FX Wrap Up

While many traders were focused on the US Weekly Jobless Claims Report, the economic data out of the UK was quite a mixed bag. The retail sector proved far more resilient than industrial businesses. First up was the retail sales numbers, which unexpectedly beat expectations for the second month in a row. November posted a gain of 0.3%. Clothing and household goods showed strong increases, while non-store sales were up a full 2.9%, signaling a surge in Internet sales. The second UK report was the CBI Industrial Orders Survey which posted a slight improvement to -5 in December from -6 from November. Export orders index fell to -5 from +3, but output expectations rose by a solid 6 points. Starting the day the Great Britton Pound traded at 2.3695 verses the Swiss Franc and had a steady rally to 2.3820. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

OPEC Announces Additional Cuts

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading higher after OPEC announced plans for additional production cuts. OPEC has agreed to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day, starting February 1. The delay in cuts is an effort to keep prices stable through the winter season. Read More....

Dollar Continues to Fight

Initial jobless claims dropped by 20 thousand this morning, providing further proof that the economy is not sinking into oblivion. The bearish Dollar sentiment will not change on a few good reports, and recession fears are actually still a factor. Read More.....

Bull Market Up North

Bull market up north: The Oilseed markets have been hot of late, as worldwide demand for vegetable oils continues to increase. This has led to tight supplies of both Soybean Oil and Palm Oil. Another Oilseed market, Canola, has also seen a large up-move this year. Since the beginning of October, Canola futures have rallied over C$60 per ton, topping out at C$375.50 on December 1st. Read More....

Heavy Metals

Copper futures fell to near one-month lows this morning, as continued inventory builds at the LME, coupled with a stronger US Dollar, kept bears in control. The New York session started on a down-note, as the London Metal Exchange reported an increase of 4,600 tons in exchange warehouses now totaling 171,300 metric tons. Read More.....

Daily FX Wrap Up

A hard landing turns soft until the next news release……

The US Dollar made strong gains on light news following today’s release of US Retail Sales figures for November. A surge in consumer spending instigated a sharp rally for the greenback against the Euro gaining over 85 pips, which was badly needed after yesterday’s FOMC report. Starting in the early morning sessions, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.3285 and had a long and slow decline to finish out the American session at 1.3200. What really is intriguing traders and economist alike, is the possible impact of today’s figures on possible future Federal Reserve actions. Fears of further housing decline and to a lesser degree a small dip in the industrial sector had many fearing a hard and rocky bottom for the US economy. With Retail Sales showing a gain optimist see tangible evidence that the economy may bottom out with a soft landing. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Boost in Consumer Spending Boosts S&P

S&P: March S&P 500 futures are trading higher following encouraging retail sales data. November retail sales rose much higher-than-anticipated at 1% (consensus 0.2%). Sales excluding autos, also rose a higher-than-expected 1.1% (consensus 0.3%). Read More....

Volatile Dollar Continues This Morning

Volatility for the Dollar continues this morning, after the Fed announced no rate adjustments yesterday. November retail sales skyrocketed beyond economists’ expectations, up 1% for raw retail sales. This is the best performance since the 1.4% rise in sales during July and is a huge boost for the beginning of the holiday season. Read More.....

Well Oiled

Well Oiled: Oil traders are taking a wait and see attitude towards tomorrow's OPEC meeting in Nigeria to decide if further production cuts are needed to stabilize Oil prices. So far, traders believe that OPEC ministers are divided on whether cuts are needed, with Iran and Venezuela looking for cuts up to 500,000 barrels a day and the UAE and possibly Saudi Arabia looking to keep output steady. Read More....

Coffee Just Misses New Highs

Lead month March Coffee just missed hitting the 130.00 level, as speculators and commodity fund buying was met with stiff origin and trade selling, forcing prices lower on the session. Coffee prices are at their highest levels since February, and origin sellers are eagerly locking-in good prices for the most recent crop. Read More....

Daily FX Wrap Up

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) kept interest rates unchanged following today’s meeting, it was the fourth straight time the FOMC kept rates steady after 17 consecutive increases. The Fed statement after the rates announcement mentioned a slower economic growth forecast due to the significant cooling off in the housing market. But the statement announcing the decision was, if anything, marginally more hawkish than its similar predecessor with the report stating, “Although recent indicators have been mixed, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace”. Following the release the EUR/USD jumped from1.3230 up 55 pips to 1.3285. This might be a short term speed bump for the Dollar’s recent gains while recovering from the multi year lows that hit the Dollar late last month. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

S&P Looking Towards FOMC Meeting

S&P: March S&P 500 futures are trading slightly lower, with traders on hold ahead of this morning’s FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged once again at 5.25%. Investors will be reacting to the policy directive released alongside the rate decision. Read More.....

Quiet Morning Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Quiet morning ahead of FOMC meeting: Bond traders will get a reprieve this morning, as traders await the interest rate announcement after today's FOMC meeting. Most every economist and analyst expects the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. However, the real story will be the release of the Fed's statement, especially in regard to its views on inflation. Bond bulls expect the Fed to mention that the US economy is starting to cool, and past rate hikes are starting to take their desired effects. Read More.....

Interesting Development in the Dollar

An interesting situation is developing for the Dollar this morning, following mixed trading against the Euro and Yen overnight. The buck slipped to 1.3216 against the Euro, continuing it’s descent no matter what Dollar-positive news is released, but reached a two and a half week high versus the Yen. Read More....

Natural Gas Slipping Away

Natural Gas prices slip-sliding away! Front month January Natural Gas futures lost 13.4 cents per British Thermal Unit (BTU) to settle at $7.427. The range, low to high, was $7.22 to $7.44. Cash prices led the retreat over the weekend, with physical gas prices dropping 77 cents to $6.75/MMBtu at the Henry Hub in Louisiana, while the Transcontinental Zone 6 prices in New York lost a dollar, to change hands at $7.30/MMBtu. Read More....

Daily FX Wrap Up

Even without major economic releases, traders throughout the world still found plenty of reasons to sell-off the US Dollar. Starting out in the European session, the first order of the day was to cover Dollar-long positions that had benefited from last week’s jumpy price movement. Moving across the Atlantic, the early morning US session continued the bearish greenback pattern with a slow and steady decline. The EUR/USD pair saw a 110-pip range and a high of almost 1.3265 before a slight retracement heading into tonight’s Asian session.

The outlook for the rest of the week includes an FOMC meeting on Tuesday, which trumps almost all economic releases out of the US. Analysis will be highly focused on the event in search of commentary and market direction, as the central bank is widely expected to hold rates at 5.25 percent. The million dollar question is, “Will the Feds reiterate the topic of inflation and avoid all talk of an economic slowdown?” It is more than possible that they will send out the same statement as they did in October, which was regarded as highly optimistic and slightly unbelievable. With that being said, a good report might be the short-term remedy to cure the US Dollar of its recent weakness. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

S&P Looking Towards FOMC Meeting

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading lower, as the contract remains near $60 a barrel. This week will bring the much-anticipated OPEC meeting, where they will discuss further production cuts. Currently, traders are showing skepticism that any production cuts made will reduce the ample global supply enough to merit significantly higher prices. Read More.....

Euro Continues To Slip

The Euro continues to slip, after European and Asian dealing this morning has pushed the 12-nation common currency below $1.32. The Euro has had support from the notion that the gap between US and Eurozone interest rates will continue to narrow as the European Central Bank raises rates. Read More.....

The Buck Has A Lot On Its Plate This Week

The buck has a lot on its plate this week, with the Fed policy meeting Tuesday, October's Wholesale Inventories, Retail Sales and Core CPI. Outside the policy meeting, the current weak trend for the Dollar may get a boost if inflation and consumer spending reports continue to defy hawkish comments by the Fed. Read More.....

Crude Oil Futures Ended on a Down Note

Crude Oil futures ended the week on a down note, with the lead month January contract failing to closing above $63 a barrel as, traders gear up for the December 14th OPEC meeting. Traders now expect OPEC officials to announce a further cut of between 500,000 and 1 million barrels as day, due to ample world Oil supplies. Read More....

Daily FX Wrap Up

The release of the US unemployment numbers were over all positive however, the initial reaction was bearish for the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair drastically rose coming out of the gate with a 95-pip rally, reaching a high of 1.3365. With in minutes of the high a reverse happened, which dropped the pair by 165 pips before leveling off at 1.3200, which is near technical support levels. This gave much havoc for smaller traders that would have been stopped out by a large and unexpected counter trend move. Looking at the other majors, the Yen bounced on 115 support levels in its pairing with the Dollar, but the greenback push to 116.50. Finally and well of its yearly high, the British Pound was stopped flat on a run to 1.9730 and cascaded 215 points to reach the low of the day. Looking into next week, Wholesale Inventories, Treasury Budget, Retail Sales and Crude Inventory figures will be released with a host of other economic news. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

CME Benchmark Contract turns 25!

A quarter-century ago, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced its benchmark contract tied to interest rates, a product that got off to a shaky start but has become the world's most active futures market. Read More....

Better Than Expected Results

Non-farm payrolls were reported better than expected this morning, showing 132,000 new jobs created and the unemployment rate increasing to 4.5%. The Dollar spiked against the Euro on the news, reaching 1.3235. Although the rate of unemployment inched up from 4.4% in November, traders are digesting more revised data for last month, furthering the idea that the huge drop must have been an aberration. Read More.....

Something for everyone in today's NFP report:

Something for everyone in today's NFP report: Jobs in November grew by 132,000, a nice gain from the revised 79,000 gain in October, but manufacturing jobs decreased once again, shedding 15,000 jobs last month, according to the US Labor Department. Most traders were looking for an increase of 110,000 jobs last month. Read More.....

Bulls Starting to Sour on Sugar

Bulls starting to sour on Sugar: What was one of the hottest bull markets in early 2006 looks to end on a sour note, as Sugar prices continue to fall. March Sugar fell to 2-week lows this morning, as speculative selling, tied to year-end liquidation, kept prices on the defensive. Read More....

Daily FX Wrap Up

Looking to Friday's employment report, the currency markets have reverted to their usual consolidation, as positions are quietly placed and removed before the roller coaster associated with the NFP numbers. In terms of price action, the majors made almost no effort to break from ranges. The Euro was stuck between 1.3330 and 1.3275 against the US Dollar. An often overlooked currency is the New Zealand Kiwi which made its own move against the US Dollar posting a gain near 90 pips in the last two days. While consolidation has occurred in most of the majors a bit of volatility in this pair has given traders some opportunity in the last few weeks. Currently the NZD/USD is trading .6875 near the close of the American sessions. Tomorrow the US unemployment report will be released which is expected to slightly better than last month's print. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Bulls Craving Cocoa Futures

Bulls craving Cocoa futures: Heading into the end of 2006, traders are starting to get bullish on the Cocoa market. Since the end of November, lead month March Cocoa has gained nearly $120 per ton, as speculators are starting to show concerns that this year's Cocoa supplies may not live up to expectations. Read More.....

Consolidating Euro

The Euro is consolidating at the 1.3300 level, after more hawkish comments from the European Central Bank confirmed the likelihood of a quarter point interest rate hike for the Eurozone. Mr. Trichet sees sustainable growth within the economy between 1.7 and 2.7% for 2007. Read More.....

Wheat in Retreat!

Wheat in retreat! Chicago Wheat futures fell sharply this afternoon, breaking below the psychologically important $5.00 level, as speculative liquidation tied to end of the year profit-taking and spillover from selling in Corn and Soybeans kept the recent downtrend intact. Read More.....

Daily FX Wrap Up

The US Dollar has, for the moment, pulled out of its decline. Today the USD made modest gains verse the majors while waiting on Friday's Unemployment Report. With a light day for news, two minor economic releases this morning have showed support for the Dollar. MBA Mortgage Applications for the final week of November and November's ADP net employment estimate both printed better than their respective expectations. Normally, these two reports draw little attention from traders, but some experts believe that these indicators might be looked at more closely given the overall bearish greenback. The Mortgage Bankers Association index of housing applications for the week ending December 1st grew 8.1 percent, the highest gain in 4 weeks. More importantly however, the overall level of the indicator is at its loftiest reading in ten months. This can be contributed to recent easing in housing prices and falling mortgage rates.In addition, the ADP report outpaced expectations with a gain of 158,000 jobs in November. Today the EUR/USD closed out the US session trading at 1.3285, down nearly 70 pips from earlier levels. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Crude Traders Wait for Inventory Data

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading slightly lower, as traders wait patiently for this morning's inventory data. Yesterday saw Crude Oil futures stand still, settling down 0.01 at $62.43 a barrel. This morning’s inventory report is scheduled to be released at 9:30 AM CST, and will provide the direction for trading today. Read More....

2006 Golden for Metals Traders

2006 golden for metals traders: Gold futures traders have had plenty of trading opportunities in 2006, starting out the year with prices near $520, and then soaring over $200 per ounce by May, as fears of increasing inflation tied to record high Oil prices started a speculative frenzy in the entire metals complex. Read More.....

Dollar Moving Againist the Euro

The Dollar made a preemptive move against the Euro based on an employment forecast by ADP predicting non-farm private employment increasing 128k. This is good news when combined with Tuesday's surprisingly strong U.S. service sector survey. Read More.....

Strong Coffee

Strong Coffee: Lead month March Coffee reached 10-month highs this morning, as speculative accounts continue to add to winning long positions. Fears of a potentially poor crop next season due to drought conditions in Brazil corresponding with the downside of the cyclical nature of the crop, have traders looking past ample Coffee supplies currently available. Read More.....

Daily FX Wrap Up

The Euro moved in expected ranges today against the US Dollar, despite the better than expected Euro-Zone PMI numbers. First up was the services sector, which posted gaines for November as PMI rose to 57.6 from 56.5 in October. One of the major factors was the employment index, which is seen as highly encouraging for the labor market, as well as new business and business expectations, which points to a positive gain within the sector. Not all the news was good because prices charged and input prices slipped, but it did not seem that many traders took this into consideration. Later, data showed that retail sales rose again in October at a rate of 0.3%, but downward revisions to the September results offset the positive, as the annual figure essentially held steady at a six month low of 1.1%. Even with a barrage of positive Euro information, early morning trading started off in the 1.3025 level and finished out the American sessions almost in the same spot. This may be a sign that new resistance at the current high of 1.3670 might hold for a while. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

S&P Bulls Return

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading higher, refusing to move away from $63 a barrel. Yesterday saw Crude Oil futures break five sessions of gains, losing 99 cents to settle at $62.44 a barrel. Traders remain unsure if OPEC will follow-through with threats of further production cuts at their upcoming December meeting. Read More.....

Oil Setting Up For A Move Higher?

Oil futures setting up for a move higher? The days of below $50 Oil may be near an end, as threats of further OPEC production cuts and continued solid demand continue to support the market. Yesterday's correction broke a six-day string of higher prices, as speculators booked profits when weather forecasters called for normal to above normal temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast next week. Read More.....

The Buck Gives Back

The buck is giving back the very small gains made from last week against the majors. Overnight trading saw the Euro climb through 1.3360 and sustained momentum, staying above 1.3300. The Dollar is exposed on the fundamental front with risk surrounding Non-Manufacturing ISM data today and the Labor Departments unemployment report due Friday. Read More.....

Corn Bulls Go Into Hibernation!

Corn Bulls go into hibernation! March Corn gapped lower on the open and was weak all day, except for a few short-term bounces to the upside. The lower open triggered sell stops and long liquidation, as weakness in the overnight sessions bled into the open in the Corn pit. Read More.....

Daily FX Wrap

The Euro continues to surprise dealers as it continues to climb against the dollar. Intra-day shorts may want to rethink and cover as the market traded up through 1.3340 late in the session. With the European session next, further strength for longs could solidify should the Euro hold it's ground at these levels.

Euro Continues To Skyrocket Againist the Dollar

The Euro continues to skyrocket against the Dollar and cross pairs into this morning's session. The EUR/USD tested the 1.3360 barrier several times but was unable to sustain momentum. The drift downward looks stable for the short-term, and prices are hovering in the 1.3290's. Read More.....

Quiet Monday in Early Trading

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading lower, falling below $63 a barrel. Crude Oil futures fell from two-month highs this morning, on speculation that recent gains have reduced the possibility of additional OPEC cuts in their December meeting. Read More.....

The Bucks Stops Here!

The Buck Stops Here! December Euro futures declined this morning in London after making yet another yearly high. Secretary of the Treasury Paulson has given lip service of late to the merits of the strong Dollar and the health of the US economy, but has initiated no action to intervene on behalf the faltering Greenback. Read More.....

Yen Disappoints....So Does the Dollar

While the US Dollar is having a tough week against the Euro Zone, the Japanese Yen is having its own challenging times. Inflation numbers for November continue the trend of falling lower and lower on a monthly basis. Tokyo headline CPI declined 0.2 percent during the month, bringing the annual rate down to 0.2 percent. Furthermore, October’s results were revised 0.1 lower on both a monthly and annual basis, highlighting Japan’s dreadfully slow pace out of deflationary status. With no pressure on the Japanese economy, the Bank of Japan has less of a reason to hike rates by 25 basis points that is expected in December. However, the Bank of Japan has been quick to suggest that monetary policy decisions are based on the future of the economy and not previous month’s numbers. While this does not take a rate increase off the table completely, it does decrease the likely hood. At the close, the USD/JYP was trading at 115.47 and the EUR/JYP was trading at 154.00. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Disappointment Yet Again!

Yesterday, the US Dollar sank to new multi-year new lows. Today in early morning trading, the decline continued, reaching 1.3324 verses the Euro and 1.9792 against the Pound. With European currencies gaining on the Dollar, one would think that the increase is from positive economic news. Read More.....

Corn Prices Keep Climbing!

Corn price keeps climbing! March Corn had its highest close ever yesterday. Futures settled $3.91, up 5 3/4 cents a bushel, on ideas of strong export demand as reported by the Department of Agriculture before the open yesterday. Expect increased volatility at these levels as corn continues to test new highs. Read More....

Crude Rises Before 1st Cold Spell of Winter

Crude Oil: January Crude Oil contracts are trading lower, falling below $63 a barrel. Crude Oil futures fell from two-month highs this morning, on speculation that recent gains have reduced the possibility of additional OPEC cuts in their December meeting. Read More....

Wheat Rallies Across The Board!

Wheat rallies across the board! March Wheat futures closed 10 cents higher today to settle at $5.21 1/2 per bushel. Bulls were in control of the market the second the opening bell rung at the CBOT. Chicago Wheat has moved off its $5.60 high made on October 17th to test support after the news of the reduced wheat harvest spurned the rally that began mid-summer. Read More.....