Senior Analyst, Mike Zarembski, Comments on FCOJ
DJ Nybot FCOJ Review: Up On Spec Buying
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Frozen concentrated orange juice futures gained additional ground Wednesday
as speculative traders bought in the last 30 minutes of the session, sources
said, sources said.
Most-active March FCOJ rose 85 points to $1.2550 a pound, while May finished
70 points higher at $1.2550.
Traders were busy again rolling positions out of March juice and into the
May. That spread closed even Wednesday at $1.2550 and had narrowed in recent
sessions.
No fresh fundamental news was cited for the market's gains, rather continued
support came from speculative buying that lifted March FCOJ to nearly
three-week highs.
"The market opened up higher and then dipped, and I thought maybe we were in
for a little bit of a sell-off here. But once again at the end of the day it
looks like the specs came in and bid it up again," said Mike Zarembski, FCOJ
analyst and futures desk manager at Xpresstrade in Chicago.
The closing of the March-May spread and the ability of the market to rally
off of its $1.1450 low may indicate improving demand. "Maybe this is a sign
that we're actually starting to see some solid demand here even at these higher
prices. That's actually a very bullish sign," Zarembski said.
March juice has now gained 11 cents a pound since Jan. 20, when it bottomed
out at the $1.1450 level.
Zarembski pegs technical resistance on March FCOJ at $1.2750, the Jan. 9
high. Support is placed at $1.2325 and $1.2275 a pound.
In news, Brazil's January FCOJ exports rose 92% from December to 91,600
metric tons. FCOJ exports were also higher than year-ago levels.
Citrus canker was found on orange seedlings in four Sao Paulo greenhouses.
The affected properties were closed and are prohibited from selling oranges or
orange trees, according to Fundecitrus, a private plant health group organized
by orange growers and orange juice producers.
Citrus canker is a bacterial disease that causes lesions on the fruit and
weakens the trees, thereby cutting production. It is spread easily in rainy,
windy conditions.
Brazil, the world's No. 1 exporter of orange juice and the No. 1 orange
producer, is seeing scattered showers and thundershowers, with rain amounts
ranging from 0.20-0.75 inch. Mostly dry conditions are expected Thursday with
the possibility of a few light showers Friday through Sunday. Near- to
below-normal temperatures are expected on Friday, with near to above normal
Saturday and Sunday, DTN Meteorlogix said.
The increasing shower activity over Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais will benefit
the budding orange trees after recent hot, dry weather.
In Florida, mostly dry conditions are seen, with scattered showers and
thundershowers forecast Friday into early Saturday. Dry conditions are expected
to return later Saturday into Sunday, DTN said.
At the Nybot, FCOJ futures volume was estimated at 4,474 contracts, with
1,452 options traded.
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Frozen concentrated orange juice futures gained additional ground Wednesday
as speculative traders bought in the last 30 minutes of the session, sources
said, sources said.
Most-active March FCOJ rose 85 points to $1.2550 a pound, while May finished
70 points higher at $1.2550.
Traders were busy again rolling positions out of March juice and into the
May. That spread closed even Wednesday at $1.2550 and had narrowed in recent
sessions.
No fresh fundamental news was cited for the market's gains, rather continued
support came from speculative buying that lifted March FCOJ to nearly
three-week highs.
"The market opened up higher and then dipped, and I thought maybe we were in
for a little bit of a sell-off here. But once again at the end of the day it
looks like the specs came in and bid it up again," said Mike Zarembski, FCOJ
analyst and futures desk manager at Xpresstrade in Chicago.
The closing of the March-May spread and the ability of the market to rally
off of its $1.1450 low may indicate improving demand. "Maybe this is a sign
that we're actually starting to see some solid demand here even at these higher
prices. That's actually a very bullish sign," Zarembski said.
March juice has now gained 11 cents a pound since Jan. 20, when it bottomed
out at the $1.1450 level.
Zarembski pegs technical resistance on March FCOJ at $1.2750, the Jan. 9
high. Support is placed at $1.2325 and $1.2275 a pound.
In news, Brazil's January FCOJ exports rose 92% from December to 91,600
metric tons. FCOJ exports were also higher than year-ago levels.
Citrus canker was found on orange seedlings in four Sao Paulo greenhouses.
The affected properties were closed and are prohibited from selling oranges or
orange trees, according to Fundecitrus, a private plant health group organized
by orange growers and orange juice producers.
Citrus canker is a bacterial disease that causes lesions on the fruit and
weakens the trees, thereby cutting production. It is spread easily in rainy,
windy conditions.
Brazil, the world's No. 1 exporter of orange juice and the No. 1 orange
producer, is seeing scattered showers and thundershowers, with rain amounts
ranging from 0.20-0.75 inch. Mostly dry conditions are expected Thursday with
the possibility of a few light showers Friday through Sunday. Near- to
below-normal temperatures are expected on Friday, with near to above normal
Saturday and Sunday, DTN Meteorlogix said.
The increasing shower activity over Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais will benefit
the budding orange trees after recent hot, dry weather.
In Florida, mostly dry conditions are seen, with scattered showers and
thundershowers forecast Friday into early Saturday. Dry conditions are expected
to return later Saturday into Sunday, DTN said.
At the Nybot, FCOJ futures volume was estimated at 4,474 contracts, with
1,452 options traded.
posted by XPRESSTRADE, LLC at 2/01/2006 01:45:00 PM
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