FuturesBlogs.com

Spread traders sparking Heating Oil rally!

2007-06-06T07:59:00.001-07:00

Normally, Heating Oil futures are quiet in the summer, as traders focus on Gasoline supplies going into the peak US driving season. However, the past few sessions, Heating Oil has out- performed its product mate, as low Heating Oil stocks and unwinding of Gasoline/Heating Oil spreads by large speculative accounts have caught traders by surprise. Read More.....

The European World Waits

2007-06-06T07:58:00.001-07:00

Much of the currency world is awaiting the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision is likely to make no impact, because the market has completely priced in a 25bp rate hike. Read More.....

Energy Traders Focus on Products

2007-06-06T07:55:00.000-07:00

RBOB – RBOB Gasoline is down for the third consecutive day, as the market appears well-supplied at the moment. Prices at the pump have begun to stabilize around the nation with no major disruptions to refineries. Energy traders will be looking past the Crude Oil number, focused on the gasoline and distillates number. Read More....

Canadian Dollar reaches new highs

2007-06-05T08:01:00.000-07:00

S&P – Stock indexes are slightly higher this morning on speculation that M&A activity will continue to blossom. Kirk Kerkorian indicated that he is shopping around different options for his majority stake in MGM, signaling that he may sell his shares. Read More....

Dollar continues to fall

2007-06-05T08:00:00.001-07:00

The EUR/USD broke through the 1.3500 mark last night from positive PMI Service numbers, posting 57.3 verses 57.1 forecasted. The PMI is the gauge for the overall performance of the German service sector. Read More.....

Got bull market?

2007-06-05T06:27:00.000-07:00

If you thought the rising cost of Crude Oil was bad, just check out what is going on in the Milk market. Growing worldwide demand, lower US surpluses, and higher feed costs have CME fluid Milk futures up sharply this year. Read More....

China Sinks Global Shares

2007-06-04T07:04:00.000-07:00

S&P – Stock indexes are lower coming into trading this morning, led by a meltdown in the Chinese stock market. The CSI 300 Index fell over 290 points to close at 3,511.43, as traders do not expect the Chinese government to intervene to curb the sharply correcting market. Read More...

Balanced Start?

2007-06-04T06:50:00.001-07:00

At the start of the currency week, most majors are trading in familiar places, despite the current sell-off happening in China. The Shanghai stock index plunged by more than 8%, breaking the key 3700 support trendline- which is viewed as more of a correction in the market as opposed to a full blown trend reversal. Read More....

Melted Chocolate

2007-06-04T06:28:00.000-07:00

Cocoa futures continue to struggle, falling to 4-week lows in early trading this morning, as forecasters are calling for a smaller Cocoa deficit this season and a Cocoa surplus for the 2007-08 season. Current estimates are for a 130,000 ton surplus for the upcoming crop year, which should put a halt to the largest Cocoa rally in nearly 4 years. Read More....

Big Numbers Day

2007-06-01T07:50:00.000-07:00

Even with the overwhelming amount of fundamental data released this morning, no clear direction has been determined in the markets. Breaking down the data reveals that job growth for May was average, but the personal income and PCE deflator data were not good enough for the US dollar to hold onto its gains. Read More.....

Payrolls rebound in May!

2007-06-01T07:33:00.001-07:00

US payrolls improved in May, rising by 157,000 jobs, or nearly double the revised 80,000 job gain in April according to the Labor Department. This was just above the pre-report estimate for a gain of between 140,000 and 150,000 jobs. As expected, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.5%. Read More....

Gold Jumps on Supply Cut

2007-06-01T07:31:00.000-07:00

Gold – December Gold is trading $6 higher this morning after a statement by the European Central Bank (ECB) that it plans to halt sales of the precious metal until September. The recent price slump caused India, the world’s largest user of Gold, to ramp up imports of the metal. Read More....

Analysts’ opinions mixed on tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report

2007-05-31T13:54:00.001-07:00

Economists and traders have a relatively wide range of estimates on tomorrow's payroll figures. On the low end are those looking at yesterday's release of the ADP/Macroeconomic estimate of 97,000 new private sector jobs created in May. Read More....

Asia Rebounds

2007-05-31T13:53:00.001-07:00

Asian indexes were able to shrug off a day of heavy losses after China announced a hike in stamp duties on mainland stock trades. A defiant rally in Wednesday's U.S. session gave confidence to other markets to continue the bull movement. Read More....

Too little too late?

2007-05-31T07:39:00.001-07:00

That is the question being asked by energy traders as several US refinery operations restart just as the peak US driving season is underway. Since reaching contract highs of 2.3419 on May 18th , July RBOB Gasoline futures have fallen over 17 cents as traders covered long positions in anticipation of increasing Gasoline output. Read More....

Bonds Unable to Get the Ball Rolling

2007-05-31T07:37:00.000-07:00

Bonds – Bonds are posting modest gains after the Q1 GDP figure this morning, which came in at 0.6 percent to surprise even the most pessimistic economic forecasters. Although the figure is Bond bullish, the stock market shook off the news and is stronger coming into trading this morning. Read More....

Kiwi Climbing

2007-05-31T07:35:00.000-07:00

The New Zealand and Australian Dollars have had good runs this morning, pushing to .7372 (Kiwi) and .8288 (AUD) against the US Dollar. In early morning trading, the Kiwi broke through technical resistance around the .7315 level and shot up 50 points to the current high. Read More....

Crude Recovers, Stock Fall

2007-05-30T07:42:00.000-07:00

Crude Oil – July Crude Oil is up slightly this morning after losing over two dollars in yesterday’s trade. Refineries have been running smoothly of late, leading traders to believe that production will in fact meet demand. Read More....

Gold continues to consolidate, but for how long?

2007-05-30T06:47:00.002-07:00

Gold futures have been taking a breather of late as long liquidation, moderate European central bank selling, and weaker Oil prices have taken a bit of the luster out of the market. However, this may be the calm before the storm! Read More....

Pound and Euro Down

2007-05-30T06:47:00.001-07:00

The US Dollar got a small reprieve this morning with both the Pound and the Euro trading lower. Both pairs took a beating on weak Euro PMI numbers, most notably in Germany, which saw a huge collapse from 55.6 to 47.3. Retailers blamed the drop on the inclement weather between April and May, and expect better demand as the summer progresses. Read More....

Let the weather markets begin!

2007-05-29T07:13:00.001-07:00

With the Memorial Day holiday behind us, commodity traders will turn their focus to the grain markets with the start of the potentially volatile growing season. The Soybean complex has been in the spotlight the past week, with contract highs being made in new-crop November Beans, and front month Bean Oil futures at 20-year highs. Read More....

Mixed day in the Majors!

2007-05-24T07:59:00.001-07:00

With the US Durable Goods, Initial Claims and New Home Sales releases today, many fundamental traders were waiting for direction in a relatively quiet week. Today’s Durable Goods reading posted 0.6% versus an expected 0.9%. The current trend for durable goods orders has turned to an annual decline of -2.0%, as business capital investment stalled in mid-2006. Read More....

Beans ready to sprout.

2007-05-24T07:58:00.000-07:00

July Soybeans extended yesterday’s gains in the overnight session, adding 2 ¾ cents to end at $8.03 ¼ per bushel. Beans are trading higher on concerns over dry conditions in the eastern Midwest, lower acreage planted for the 2007-08 crop year, and a strong technical setup for higher prices. Read More....

Bonds drop to lowest close of the year

2007-05-24T07:57:00.000-07:00

Bonds – June Bonds dropped 11 ticks to close at 109-08, the lowest close of the year. Treasury yields have jumped, with traders giving up hope of a rate cut thanks to hawkish statements from the Fed and the inflationary pressure placed on consumers with higher prices at the pump. Recent M&A activity is bullish for the stock market, and Bond prices have suffered on cash outflows. Read More....

Shorted-Lived Gain

2007-05-23T13:19:00.000-07:00

Much to the dismay of many FX traders, the US Dollar took a bit of a hit this morning across the majors from speculative rumors that the British Pound might push to a 50 basis point rate hike. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously for a 25bp rate hike at its meeting in May, surprising many traders who expected to hear at least one voice of dissent. Read More...

Rain Makes Grain!

2007-05-23T13:18:00.000-07:00

July Corn futures picked up 4 ½ cents overnight on light volume after sliding lower 11 ½ cents yesterday to settle at $3.69 ½ per bushel. Traders are focusing on the fact that 92% of the crop is planted with 78% rated good to excellent. Read More....

Gasoline Supply Rise Jolts the Energy Sector

2007-05-23T13:17:00.000-07:00

Crude Oil – The energy market was slammed on speculation that gasoline supply concerns were beginning to ease. There are rumors that the RBOB supply is so large that there is a shortage of space in the main USgasoline pipeline. Read More....

Crude Prices Slip, Gold’s Muster Loses Luster, and Cattle Get Slaughtered

2007-05-22T15:04:00.001-07:00

July Crude Oil futures lost $1.36 per contract to settle at $65.51 per barrel off a trading range for the session of $65.40 to $66.55. Today’s lower prices are attributed to the activity in Gasoline futures, which hit the skids for the second straight day as the July contract for reformulated gasoline lost 7.2 cents to close at $2.2353 per gallon. Read More.....

Global Indexes Remain Mixed

2007-05-22T15:03:00.001-07:00

Index markets continue to look for a catalyst as they trudge through lethargic trading sessions. All of the major global regions ended Tuesday's session mixed, with little movement of note to be found. Economic data remains on the light side for the first half of the trading week, and corporate news has been mostly muted. Read More....

M&A Speculation Supports Stocks

2007-05-22T15:02:00.001-07:00

Dollar Holding Its Own!

2007-05-22T15:01:00.000-07:00

The ZEW survey printed at 24 versus 16.5 the period prior, and just reached an 11-month high. The Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) queries approximately 400 financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany’s economic situation. Read More....

Gas Lets Off The Accelerator A Touch

2007-05-22T15:00:00.000-07:00

July futures for Reformulated Gasoline are down over 3 cents a gallon this morning, as market players adjust to last week’s 4.3% rise in benchmark prices. However, it is likely that prices will stay firm at the pump, given the refinery production problems and low imports as reported by the head of the Energy Information Administration. Read More....

Stocks Hold Steady, Despite Signs of Cooling

2007-05-16T07:11:00.000-07:00

S&P – Stocks finished mixed after rallying in early trading on lower CPI data. Stock traders initially took the news as a sign that the Fed may move away from a tightening bias. In addition to poor corporate earnings, many traders were hit with the realization that a slowing economy is heavily influencing the tame inflation data. Read More.....

Housing Holds The Key

2007-05-16T06:48:00.000-07:00

This week has been a tough one for the US Dollar bulls. Yesterday’s weak CPI report pushed the currency back near resistance levels, but no further, giving the US a bit of a break. After weaker producer price figures hit the wires on Friday last week, traders were looking to see stronger growth in consumer prices as a show of faith that the Fed is doing the right thing by putting inflation ahead of growth. Read More....

Fear and Loathing in the Oil Market

2007-05-16T06:47:00.000-07:00

Crude Oil – perhaps the most political commodity – continued to stubbornly hover above the $60 per barrel level, despite a so called "oil glut" here in the US. The latest "fear factor" is the continued civil unrest in Nigeria. A protest by Nigerian youths at a pipeline facility halted shipment of 170,000 barrels per day according to Royal Dutch Shell. Read More....

Corn Fades

2007-05-15T08:03:00.000-07:00

Corn – Corn was the weak link in the grain complex, with December futures shedding 3 ½ cents. There were no changes to the fundamentals over the weekend, but traders had some time to mull over Friday’s USDA report, which may not be as bullish as initially thought. Read More....

CPI Proving to be an Issue

2007-05-15T06:59:00.001-07:00

This morning we have the release of both the CPI and Core CPI out of the United States. The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the price level of a fixed market basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. CPI is the most widely cited inflation indicator, and is used to calculate cost of living adjustments for government programs and is the basis of COLAs for many private labor agreements as well. Read More.....

Soy in the Spotlight!

2007-05-15T06:55:00.000-07:00

The media has focused on the Corn market this year, with burgeoning ethanol demand and rising feed usage leading to a surge in prices. However, traders should consider taking a look at the Soybean market this summer, as lower US planting intentions and increased usage are setting the stage for extremely tight ending stocks this year. Read More....

Copper rally cools... for now!

2007-05-14T13:36:00.002-07:00

Copper bulls are starting to take a breather, as speculative selling and a moderate Copper storage build in London weighed on prices. Lead month July Copper fell to 2-week lows this morning, with fresh selling seen below Friday's lows at 352.65. Traders noted sell-stops being triggered below psychological support at 350.00. Read More....

Stocks Roll on Tame Inflation

2007-05-14T13:36:00.001-07:00

S&P – Friday’s PPI report flew in the face of the Fed’s assessment that inflation is the largest risk factor for the economy going forward. The Fed seems blind to the fact that recent inflation data has been very tame and that corporate guidance and economic indicators show a slowdown. Read More....

A Slow Start To The Week

2007-05-14T13:35:00.001-07:00

The forex world is taking its time getting going, but has great potential for large moves as the week unfolds. News due this week includes the US CPI report on Tuesday and Housing Starts and Permits on Wednesday, as well as Initial Claims, Leading Indicators and the Philadelphia Fed report. Read More....

Bulls can't pick a bottom in Cotton!

2007-05-14T06:52:00.000-07:00

Cotton bulls saw no relief from a "friendly" USDA report for new-crop Cotton, as continued speculative and commodity fund selling sent prices sharply lower on Friday. Old-crop July Cotton fell to a new contract low of 4758, and new-crop December Cotton dropped over 100 points on the session. Read More....

Grains Called Higher on USDA Data

2007-05-11T10:13:00.000-07:00

Corn – Early indications for Corn are higher, especially given the negative bias ahead of this morning’s USDA report. Some of the numbers, such as carryout and acreage, remain somewhat bearish, but ethanol demand figures have the wires buzzing this morning. Read More.....

Quiet Night Awaiting Retail Sales

2007-05-11T09:46:00.000-07:00

The spot currency world relaxed last night with little movement in the majors. This morning’s US retail sales posted a lower-than-expected print at -.2% versus an expected .6%. Retail sales are slowing under the weight of a high Fed policy rate as the current rise in gas prices again drags alternative sales. Read More....

Crop Report Day!

2007-05-11T09:45:00.000-07:00

This morning saw the release of the USDA crop production and supply/demand report, which included the first look at what may be in store for the 2007-08 season. Read More....

Dollar Gains from FOMC Meeting

2007-05-10T08:43:00.001-07:00

The Greenback firmed up against the Euro and the Yen yesterday as the Federal Reserve left US interest rates alone for the seventh consecutive meeting and reiterated its concerns about inflation. Although the Fed’s decision to hold at the current 5.25% came as no surprise, the accompanying statement – which repeated the Fed’s predominant concern that the risk of inflation failed to moderate – initially put selling pressure on the Dollar before reversing quickly in favor of the US. Read More....

Gold Loses its Luster

2007-05-10T08:42:00.000-07:00

Gold – Gold futures continue to slump on the recent Greenback rally with a spillover effect from yesterday, as the Fed gave Dollar bulls hope with a hawkish statement. The currency markets shrugged off the BOE’s rate hike to 5.5 percent due to weak British economic data. Read More....

$60 floor for Oil prices?

2007-05-10T08:41:00.000-07:00

Yesterday's EIA energy stocks report surprised traders with news that Crude Oil stocks rose by 5.6 million barrels last week, well above even the most bearish expectation of a 1 million barrel gain. However, June Crude Oil finished the session down only 71 cents! Read More.....

Market menagerie!

2007-05-09T14:48:00.000-07:00

Orange Juice futures surged to a 1-month high of 171.50, with subtropical storm Andrea giving traders a reason to price in a "risk premium" as the Atlantic storm season begins early. However, prices ended near the day's lows, as OJ bulls booked profits ahead of Friday's USDA crop production report. Read More.....

The Dollar is Holding Steady Ahead of the FOMC Report

2007-05-09T10:49:00.001-07:00

The Dollar is holding on to its three-week high against the Euro as risk-averse investors are hedging their bets before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting today. The FOMC policy decision is set to hit the wires today at 1:15 PM CST, and many Dollar bulls are hoping to get confirmation about the recent gains. Read More....

Crude Traders Timid Before Report

2007-05-09T10:17:00.001-07:00

Crude Oil – June Crude Oil is hovering around unchanged territory on light volume ahead of the EIA Inventory Report. Crude inventories are expected to show an increase of 500,000 barrels and the products – Gasoline and Heating Oil – are also expected to rise by 200,000 and 300,000 barrels, respectively. Read More...

We're on Fed watch!

2007-05-09T10:16:00.000-07:00

Financial traders can sleep in today as little action is expected until 1:15 PM Chicago time, when the Federal Reserve releases its interest rate decision. Traders are looking for no change in the Fed Funds rate, with May Fed Fund futures reflecting only a 6% change of a 25 basis point decrease, and the August contract reflecting a modest 20% change of a rate cut by the August meeting. Read More.....

Greenback's back in the black!

2007-05-08T13:47:00.001-07:00

Euro Currency futures fell to 3-week lows this afternoon, as nervous longs covered positions ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting and Thursday's European Central Bank rate announcement. Even though most analysts expect no changes in interest rates, Euro bulls are taking their bets off the table after the Euro's historic run-up against the US Dollar. Read More....

Bonds Rock, Stocks Flop

2007-05-08T07:26:00.001-07:00

Bonds – June Bonds are trading 10 ticks higher this morning on weak earnings data in the equity markets. Concerns that corporate profits will not be able to keep pace with the rising stock market has set a negative tone for equities this morning, bolstering the treasury market as an alternative investment. Read More.....

Off and Running

2007-05-08T07:25:00.000-07:00

Volume has returned to the majors today with an initial move towards the US Dollar. In early morning trading, the EUR/USD slid 70 points to the current low of 1.3549 on an apparent combined move from technical indicators and heavy selling from Central Banks. Read More....

Plant Early? Plant Often?

2007-05-08T06:31:00.001-07:00

US grain producers continue to make progress in getting the 2007 Corn crop in the ground, but are still lagging recent averages. The USDA announced Monday afternoon that 53% of the US Corn crop has been planted – up sharply from the 23% figure reported last week – but growers are still running behind the 5-year average of 63%. Read More....

Slow Start with Tight Ranges

2007-05-07T13:48:00.001-07:00

The week started off slowly with ranges in the majors drying up to less than 30 points. The GBP/USD is suffering from the British May Day holiday, but trading will most likely resume in the morning when both sides are playing at full strength. The Japanese Yen also had a light day coming off of the seven-day “Golden Week” of holidays, with traders easing back into the work week. Looking closely at the numbers, the EUR/USD posted a 36-pip range, but the lack of action mostly came from resistance at 1.3620 and support at 1.3600, which is also the current price. The USD/JPY pushed to a high of 120.10 with a low of only 119.80. One of the more notable movements today came from the AUD/JPY cross, which produced a good uptrend from the 89.50 level up to the current 99.04. In slower times, it is a good idea to broaden horizons and search for pairs with good movement to hopefully produce a profit. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Bulls suffer a caffeine headache!

2007-05-07T12:54:00.000-07:00

Coffee futures prices continue to tumble, as strong exports from Brazil and Vietnam have weak bulls throwing in the towel. Coffee prices started the week on an up-note, reaching 1-week highs at 106.90 earlier in the session. However, fresh origin selling emerged above the 106.00 area to effectively cap the rally attempt, before local selling took over and prices ended the session near the lows of the day. Read More.....

Bull trap in O.J?

2007-05-07T08:14:00.001-07:00

After falling to a low of 146.00 in the July contract just two weeks ago, Orange Juice futures have staged an impressive 20-cent rally, as long liquidation selling abated and trade buyers entered the picture. Despite this modest upswing, however, Juice bears continue to hold the upper hand. Read More....

Black Gold?

2007-05-07T07:58:00.001-07:00

Crude Oil – Crude continues its slide, trading over 80 cents lower in the June contract. The glut of Crude Oil, indications of a possible US slowdown and lack of political tensions has fueled the recent sell-off, which began a week ago. Read More.....

Slow Start, but Larger Moves Might be Brewing

2007-05-07T07:05:00.000-07:00

Slow start to this week, with London off for Labor Day and Japan recovering after the Golden Week, a series of holidays within a seven-day span that constitutes the third busiest holiday season next to New Year’s and the Obon Week. Read More.....

Uneventful Unemployment

2007-05-04T14:13:00.001-07:00

The much-anticipated unemployment number yielded few surprises and led to a quiet day of trading. The April Unemployment Rate and Average Workweek numbers checked in as expected at 4.5% and 33.8, both little changed from March. Payrolls fell a little short of expectations, checking in at 88,000 instead of the 100,000 expected. Read More.....

The Great Dollar Hype

2007-05-04T13:27:00.001-07:00

Just as the US Dollar was gaining momentum, the Non-Farm Payroll report dragged the price back down. This week started off as a bit of a bright spot for US Dollar bulls, with a slew of reports and technical levels showing possible signs of a short-term reversal against many of the majors. That was up until 8:30 this morning with the release of a lower-than-expected print of only 88,000 new jobs against predictions of nearly 100,000. In addition to the disappointing front numbers, there were two revisions lower from the previous two months. In the last two years, the Labor Department has consistently revised previous figures higher, and with April’s soft print this could be the beginning of a downturn in the long outperforming labor trend. It is important to note that these projections cannot be confirmed without a few more disappointments to substantiate them. In price action, the EUR/USD gained over 55 points on the news, with the GBP/USD pair moving back above the 1.9900 level to close the week near the 1.9930 mark. A relatively bright spot was the USD/JPY, which lost only 30 points on the day, while the New Zealand Dollar took away only 20 points from the Dollar. Next week, we’ll see if the report confirmed the long-term trend, or if it might be possible to see a continued bullish US Dollar in the near future. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Sky-High Base Metals!

2007-05-04T13:26:00.000-07:00

The base metals sector has been hot in 2007, and today both Lead and Nickel futures hit all-time highs. 3-month Nickel surged to $51,550 per metric ton, as Australian regulators are closely monitoring the loading of Nickel concentrate from LionOre Mining International for signs of environmental concerns. Read More.....

Bonds Rally on Weak Job Data

2007-05-04T07:33:00.001-07:00

Bonds – June Bonds are trading 10 ticks higher after the Non-Farm payroll data showed that the economy added 88,000 jobs, falling short of estimates of a 100,000 increase. The unemployment rate rose, as expected, to 4.5 percent from 4.4 percent. Read More....

Good, Better, Fizzle!

2007-05-04T07:08:00.001-07:00

With the release of the Non-Farm Payroll report, the US Dollar might be pushed back from its recent gains. The build-up to this release had been nothing but bullish, but the actual numbers may dampen the rally. Throughout the week, moderate increases in the Dollar coupled with positive secondary data from Thursday’s Non-Farm productivity, ISM Services and Initial Claims provided reasons for a turnaround. Read More.....

Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!

2007-05-04T07:02:00.001-07:00

Traders looking for a surprise in today's US non-farm payrolls report were a bit disappointed, as the Labor Department announced that 88,000 new jobs were created in April, down slightly from the average pre-report estimate of 100,000. Read More.....

S&P 500 Trades Above 1,500

2007-05-04T06:06:00.000-07:00

Traders were not shy about continuing the bull run on Thursday, as first quarter productivity checked in below the 0.8% expected. Productivity is a measure of wages through labor costs, and the tame number (0.6%) fueled hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve sometime later in the year. Read More....

Stocks Jump on Unexpected Rise in Productivity, Lower Labor Costs

2007-05-03T07:38:00.000-07:00

e-mini S&P – The stock market comes in on a positive note, with Q1 Productivity rising 1.7 percent versus analyst estimates of a 0.8 percent rise. Unit Labor Costs rose at a slower-than-expected pace at 0.6 percent, falling short of the 2.1 percent forecast. Read More.....

It's all good

2007-05-03T07:19:00.000-07:00

That’s what bulls are saying about the US equity markets. The June Dow futures worked higher overnight to 13290 to retest yesterday’s high. Fundamentals aside, it’s hard to ignore the fact that markets are hovering just below the highs of the year, ready to jump off the line when the bell rings in New York just moments from now. Read More.....

Waiting on the Non-Farm Payroll

2007-05-03T07:07:00.000-07:00

Today’s economic calendar is quite full with the release of the Non-Farm Payroll Report, Unemployment and Hourly Earnings review. The expected outcome is a modest number that is expected to be below the 3-month average, but still moving in a slightly positive direction. Read More.....

Bulls Rage Back

2007-05-02T14:31:00.000-07:00

Spurred on by encouraging U.S. factory orders data, the bulls returned in dramatic fashion on Wednesday. U.S. indexes regained earlier weekly losses while making a statement that the rally effort is not dead yet. Today's move proved to be follow-through from yesterday's day-long crawl out of negative territory. Read More.....

Go Dollar Go!

2007-05-02T13:49:00.000-07:00

The US Dollar has finally seen a bit of relief as it continues its corrective rally. News out of the US was mixed today when Durable Goods orders rose 3.7% in March, beating the estimate of 3.3%. Factory orders also increased by 3.1% in March, greater than both the forecast of 2.1% and the 1.0% rise in February. Combined with the stronger-than-expected manufacturing ISM index, those two manufacturing numbers helped the USD extend its small bull market for another trading day. It is important to note that we are in a holiday market, with Europe shuttered for May Day and the Japanese off for Thursday’s national holiday. This bullish move might only be a small corrective action in line with a bigger trend, but bull hopefuls are praying that this is the start of a reversal for the EUR/USD. Looking across the big blue, the Japanese Yen continued its decline against the US Dollar. The pair broke the 120 level and is waiting for US payrolls to give the next signal for market direction. The Yen declined as far as 120.27 before pushing back to the current 120.09 in very light trading. As we head into the evening sessions, the EUR/USD is holding at 1.3590 and the GBP/USD is down a bit at 1.8990. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Has Sugar finally hit a bottom?

2007-05-02T07:52:00.001-07:00

The world’s glut of sugar has taken quite a toll on price. However, the action at the NYBOT in the past few days hints that the prospects for sugar prices may be sweet. Sugar basis July traded as low as 8.87 cents per pound in yesterday’s session, but buyers stepped in to support the market and push it back above 9 cents. Read More.....

Things are brewing!

2007-05-02T07:45:00.000-07:00

The forex markets are in a state of turmoil, which could lead to a few key reversals. Over the past few weeks, it has been speculated that the Euro is about to hit its top, meaning a trend change might be close. Stronger-than-expected US manufacturing data helped relieve some of the pressure on the Dollar yesterday as the market generally ignored housing market figures. Read More.....

Mini Dow reaching new highs

2007-05-02T07:44:00.000-07:00

Crude Oil – June Crude Oil futures are lower this morning ahead of the weekly EIA petroleum inventory report, which is expected to show a rise of 1.5 million barrels. Another key figure in the data – refinery utilization – is expected to show that refiners will be able to handle the upswing in demand expected as the driving season begins. Read More.....

Metals prices head south

2007-05-01T14:18:00.000-07:00

June Gold hit the skids today as the US Dollar was finally able to rally versus the major pairs. The June Gold contract lost $6.20 to close at $677.30 per ounce off a dealing range of $679.40 to $674.70, high to low. Metals typically rally when the Dollar declines, as metals priced in Dollars become cheaper to foreigners with the increased value of their native currency versus the Greenback. Read More.....

May Daze

2007-05-01T13:56:00.001-07:00

With most of the global markets closed for varying holidays, Tuesday's trading was uninspiring at best. The U.S. markets traded around the unchanged mark for most of the day. While it briefly appeared that the bears were going to be able to take advantage of the reduced volume to continue yesterday's sell-off, their efforts quickly waned and the indexes made a slow and steady climb back into positive territory. Read More.....

Will Corn ever break out?

2007-05-01T07:12:00.001-07:00

A good question to pose as May arrives, considering that July Corn has traded within a narrow range of $3.55 – $3.97 for the month of April. Upon closer examination, Corn generally traded within the $3.60 – $3.80 range, with only a few sessions distributing price outside that area. Read More.....

Golden Week Continues

2007-05-01T06:56:00.001-07:00

The Euro continues to be the talk of the town, as last week’s net long positions increased to a new record high for the third straight week. With this much bias, the market is ripe for a violent corrective swing lower. Traders should watch this week’s economic data for bearish news, and hop aboard the pain train as the EUR/USD will head straight for the 1.3600 level and beyond. Read More.....

What Goes Up Must Come Down

2007-04-30T14:35:00.000-07:00

The Dow Jones struck a new intraday high on Monday, only to succumb to a late-session fallout that left the major U.S. indexes in negative territory. The selling was attributed to profit taking on the last trading day of April, which has historically been the Dow's best month. Read More....

King Cotton gets another black eye

2007-04-30T14:33:00.000-07:00

July Cotton lost 74 ticks to settle at 49.26 cents per pound, off a trading range of 50.40 to 49.25, high to low. There seems to be little to keep bulls happy in Cotton, as the fundamental picture looks bleak. Supply continues to grow while demand from China remains tepid, as the USDA export projections are not in any way reflective of the reality in the marketplace. Read More....

You can’t keep a good market down!

2007-04-30T08:48:00.000-07:00

The bulls keep pushing the envelope with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Despite the somewhat unfavorable economic data released last week, the market chose to focus upon the positive corporate earnings news to push the Dow to new highs for the year. Read More....

Tame Inflation Data Sparks Treasury Bulls

2007-04-30T08:47:00.000-07:00

Bonds – Bonds are trading 13 ticks higher this morning on Core PCE Inflation data showing 0 percent inflation. Forecasters were looking for a rise of 0.1 percent, following a 0.3 percent reading in February. In addition to the tame inflation data, economists at several large investment banks – including Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch – have disagreed with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s assessment that interest rates will have to be raised to keep inflation in check. Read More....

German Spending? Nein.

2007-04-30T08:46:00.000-07:00

The big news out of the Euro-zone this morning is disappointing German Retail Sales figures that came in with a -0.7% decline versus 0.9% forecasted rise. German consumers have been hesitant to spend with the expected near 30% increase of VAT taxes instituted at the start of this year. Read More.....

Stocks Flop Before Open on Weak GDP Data

2007-04-27T07:46:00.001-07:00

S&P – Stock index futures come into the morning weak, following the softest GDP reading since 2003. The Q1 GDP showed a disappointing rise of 1.3 percent, missing estimates of 1.8 percent. Some analysts are bound to try to put a positive spin on the bad data, noting the role that extreme weather played in keeping consumers in their homes instead of in checkout lines. Read More....

Bank of Japan stands firm

2007-04-27T07:45:00.001-07:00

Economic news out of the bank of Japan this morning shows Governor Fukui is continuing his neutral monetary stand. This decision comes on the heels of Japanese CPI and household spending data that for the most part disappointed. Read More....

The worst of all worlds!

2007-04-27T07:43:00.000-07:00

Stock index traders did not take kindly to this morning's 1st quarter US GDP report, which showed that the US economy grew at an anemic seasonally-adjusted 1.3% the past quarter – well below the 2.5% growth rate in the 4th quarter of last year and the slowest growth rate in 4 years. Read More.....

Today's Apple Kept the Bears Away

2007-04-27T05:35:00.000-07:00

While today's action was relatively slow, the world's major indexes finished mostly on the positive side yet again. Positive earnings from the likes of Apple and 3M kept profit-takers at bay, but were not enough to spark a continuation of yesterday's efforts. Read More....

Bulls fail to pick a bottom in Cotton!

2007-04-27T05:34:00.000-07:00

Bears remain in firm control of the Cotton futures market, as fund selling and long liquidation via sell-stops allowed the market to plunge to new contract lows this morning. Prices started out the session steady to slightly weaker after weekly Cotton export sales came in at 530,000 running bales – well within the pre-report estimates. Read More.....

USA! USA! USA!

2007-04-26T13:04:00.001-07:00

The US Dollar finally got a bit of relief from the other majors today after yesterday’s record-breaking highs. The EUR/USD slid back to hover near the 1.3600 level after hitting the 1.3664 less than 24 hours ago. Across the pond, the Pound lost a bit of momentum and fell 140 points to its current 1.9911 level. Part of the reason for this correction is this Friday’s GDP report, which is expected to print at 1.5% for the first quarter and has many traders squaring their positions ahead of time. Gross Domestic Product is the broadest measure of economic activity and a large forex mover. Annualized quarterly percent changes in GDP reflect the growth rate of total economic output and the figures can be quite volatile from quarter to quarter – inventory and net export swings in particular can produce significant volatility in GDP. The final sales figure, which excludes inventories, can sometimes be helpful in identifying underlying growth trends as inventories represent unsold goods, and a large inventory increase will boost GDP but might be indicative of weakness rather than strength. Additional indicators out of the US include the Employment Cost Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. With such a large amount of economic data hitting the market, expect to see large swings and a decent amount of movement. Finishing out the majors, the AUD/USD declined to .8261 and the NZD/USD hit a .7386 – its lowest level in about a week.

Dow 13,000

2007-04-26T08:22:00.001-07:00

Dow – The cash Dow Jones Industrials closed above the 13,000 mark for the first time on the strength of positive corporate earnings and a rise in new home sales. New home sales rose to 858,000 – in the mid-range of most forecasts – to show a modest gain over February, but were down over 23 percent from March of last year. Read More....

Euro Hits All-Time High

2007-04-26T07:54:00.001-07:00

The Euro briefly touched an all-time high last night before quickly retreating to more comfortable levels. With no major indicators in the overnight market, technical traders took the opportunity to run the pair to a record-breaking top. Read More....

Calm before the storm (season)?

2007-04-26T05:59:00.000-07:00

Natural Gas futures have been noticeably quiet in 2007, especially given the run-up in the Oil sector this year. Ample supplies in storage – currently standing at 1.546 tcf – are the main culprit in the lackluster trading action. However, cash Natural Gas prices are starting to firm up, as energy companies turn to Natural Gas to operate their power plants while seasonal maintenance takes place on their nuclear facilities. Read More....

Good News and Bad News…

2007-04-25T13:44:00.000-07:00

News coming out of the US was better than expected, but it did little to help the Dollar out of its slump. Strong indicators came in a one-two punch, with Durable Goods Orders posting 3.4 versus the expected 2.8, and New Home Sales posting relatively in line with expectations. The Durable Orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods. Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report despite the volatility and large revisions that make it an imperfect indicator. These problems can be minimized by looking at the breakdown of orders. The total number is often skewed by huge increases in aircraft and defense orders, and today’s number might have been disregarded because of a major sale from Boeing Manufacturing. On the homes front, the New Home Sales figure indicates the level of new privately-owned one-family houses sold and for sale. New home sales usually have a lagged reaction to changing mortgage rates. They also tend to be stronger early in the business cycle when existing demand is strong, and they fade later in the cycle as the demand for housing is more balanced. In addition to home sales, the market monitors the number of homes for sale relative to the current sales pace. As this inventory measure falls or rises, housing starts tend to work in conjunction. In other notable news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above its benchmark 13,000 level to add a boost to US-based securities. This did nothing to help the Dollar’s price, but it is a significant milestone for securities dealers. As we move into the Asian sessions, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3635, the GBP/USD is still above 2.0000 at 2.0011, and the USD/JPY is clinging to the 118.17 level. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Rain in the Plains Gives Grain Bulls Gains!

2007-04-25T13:29:00.000-07:00

Grain futures posted impressive gains this afternoon, with Wheat and Corn futures leading the charge higher. At their peak, May through December 2007 Wheat contracts were up the 30-cent limit on fresh speculative buying tied to dry growing conditions in Europe and Australia, freeze damage to the US winter Wheat crop, and tight world Wheat stocks. Read More.....

Crude Higher Ahead of Data

2007-04-25T08:29:00.000-07:00

Crude Oil – June Crude Oil gave up much of Monday’s gains, falling by $1.31 on short-term profit taking and squaring up of positions ahead of this morning’s inventory data. The EIA report is expected to show a decline of 1.2 million barrels of Crude Oil, but the report has been somewhat difficult to make sense of recently. Read More....

Pain at the pump!

2007-04-25T08:28:00.000-07:00

US motorists should be prepared to empty their wallets at the gas pumps this summer, as continued strong Gasoline demand and a steady stream of refinery outages have bulls in the driver's seat. Even yesterday, when Crude Oil prices fell over $1 per barrel, Gasoline futures were barely in the red column. Read More....

House Prices Fall to a 3-Year Low

2007-04-24T13:13:00.000-07:00

Existing Home Sales reached a three-year low in March after showing four gains over the last five months. The weak sales left a 7.3 month supply of inventory, and a 7.4 month average time on the market, just below the cyclical high level from October. Lower mortgage rates and prices help improve affordability and demand, as median prices have risen in three of the last four months to leave an annual decline of just -0.3%. Existing sales include condos and co-ops which make up about 1/8 of the total. The National Association of Realtors expects existing home sales to bottom out in the second quarter. The subsequent rise should be very modest if any gains are made at all. While housing data clearly stole the show for US Dollar traders, there was more to worry about. The second major release was the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment survey for April. This print depressed expectations that domestic spending would make up for any shortfall in the housing or manufacturing sectors. The reading came back at a 104.0 print, which was a bigger dip than the market’s expectations. Higher gasoline prices and a rise in mortgage defaults are starting to expose the possible weak link in confidence that the US economy will shift towards a bullish Dollar in the near future. In price action, the EUR/USD is near the high of 1.3632 and the GBP/USD is near 2.0013. XPRESSTRADE Analyst David Hilgeman

Numbers Day!

2007-04-24T08:00:00.000-07:00

The majors are in for a bit of a storm of worldwide economic releases today, from both the European and US sides. First off was the Euro-zone. New Industrial Orders, which fell by -0.7% versus expectations of an increase of 1.0%. Read More....